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Dolphins vs Commanders Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 29, 2023

Despite traveling to Washington to face the Commanders, the Miami Dolphins are the most highly-favored team on the Week 13 NFL slate. This is a clash of two teams trending in opposite directions.

Sam Howell and the Commanders have lost three straight games while Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins have won each of their past two games.

Sitting at 4-8, the Commanders are just two games back of a spot in the NFC’s Wild Card picture. The Dolphins are 8-3, in first place in the AFC East, and are looking to widen the divisional gap with their third consecutive win.

Dolphins vs Commanders Odds

NFL odds used for this Miami vs Washington preview were found at FanDuel Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 28 at noon ET.

  • Moneyline: Dolphins (-480) • Commanders (+370)
  • Spread: Dolphins -9.5 (-110) • Commanders +9.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 49.5 (-110) • Under 49.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Dolphins 29.5, Commanders 19.5

Dolphins vs Commanders Predictions

Score Pick: Dolphins 37, Commanders 24

The Dolphins offense is arguably the most dangerous and explosive unit in the NFL, ranking second in the league in points per game (30.8). Conversely, the Commanders’ defense allows the most points per game in the NFL (29.2) and has allowed a whopping 105 points over their last three games.

In other words, the Dolphins should have no problem scoring points in bunches against a porous Commanders defense. While it may not be enough to keep pace with the Dolphins, Howell and the Commanders’ offense is also capable of moving the ball down the field and scoring points, setting this game up to be a shootout.

Dolphins vs Commanders Best Bets & Props

Over 49.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units

As previously mentioned, the Dolphins are an offense capable of lighting up a scoreboard in a hurry. After all, we did see them score 70 points in a single game this season.

Howell leads the NFL in passing yards (3,339), showing he is capable of leading sustained drives, which bodes well for the Commanders’ offense facing a defense that ranks No. 23 in the NFL in opponent points per game (22.8)

With that in mind, these two teams should have no problem going Over the expected total in this one, making this my NFL bet of the day.

Commanders Over 19.5 (-116)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Commanders’ offense will be forced to keep pace with the Dolphins since their defense will be unable to contain them. They have also scored at least 20 points in eight of their 12 games played this season.

The 9.5-point spread suggests there should be ample “garbage time” opportunities for the Commanders to eclipse this total with relative ease.

Dolphins Win & Over 49.5 (+135)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

As 9.5-point favorites, the Dolphins should have no problem winning this game outright. Their offense is good enough to score 40 points by themselves on any given Sunday while the Commanders also boast a respectable offensive attack.

At plus-money, this feels like great value and is worthy of a wager.

Dolphins vs Commanders Same Game Parlay

Dolphins vs Commanders SGP (+238)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Dolphins -9.5 (-110)
  • Over 49.5 (-110)

Per Odds Shark, the Dolphins are 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games while the Commanders have gone 0-4-1 against the spread in their five games played at home this season.

These two teams average a combined 51.3 points per game and allow a combined 52 points per game, making the Over an easy choice.

Author

Lior Lampert

Lior is an NBA/NFL writer for The Game Day. He earned a BA in English and MS in Sports Analytics in Management during his time as a student. Since then, Lior has been writing content for FanSided, GMEN HQ, and GameTime Sharks among other pages regarding the NFL, NBA, Tennis, fantasy football, and sports betting to develop a career in the sports media industry. Born in Israel but raised in New York, Lior is a long-time fan of his hometown New York Knicks and Giants. Not only does he enjoy covering sports, he enjoys playing basketball, tennis, and pickleball.

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