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Colts vs Patriots Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 10, 2023

The NFL Frankfurt Games continues this Sunday with an interesting matchup when the 4-5 Indianapolis Colts meet the 2-7 New England Patriots.

Indianapolis snapped a three-game losing streak during Week 9 with a 27-13 away victory over the Carolina Panthers. Meanwhile, New England is looking to end a two-game losing streak after dropping four of their last five.

Join me as I take a closer look at this contest and share my NFL Week 10 best bets for Sunday’s Colts vs Patriots Frankfurt Games matchup.

Colts vs Patriots Odds

NFL odds used for this Indianapolis vs New England preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday at 4:37 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Colts (-122) • Underdog (+102)
  • Spread: Colts -1.5 (-110) • Underdog +1.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 43 (-110) • Under 43 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Colts 23, Patriots 20

Colts vs Patriots Predictions

Score Pick: Colts 21, Patriots 20

None of my NFL Bets for the Day for this game have anything to do with winning or losing. I don’t know who will win this game, but I have reasons to believe this contest might be closer than some pundits think.

The Colts lost first-round Draft pick Anthony Richardson to a season-ending injury. Reserve QB Gardner Minshew has been decent, and running back Zack Moss is second in the league in rushing yards. Still, Indianapolis is the only NFL team to score 20+ in every game this season.

New England hasn’t been the same team since Tom Brady left. The offense is in shambles, while the defense allows 25 points per game.

The Patriots’ defense can’t make enough plays to overcome their -5 turnover differential, and worse than that? New England is 2-7 ATS and trending in the wrong direction.

Colts vs Patriots Best Bets & Props

Mac Jones Under 227 passing yards (-110)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

I wanted to play the interception prop, but the juice (-150) was too high.

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has a tough matchup Sunday with a Colts secondary allowing 235 passing yards per game. The Pats signal-caller hasn’t eclipsed this prop number in four of his previous five contests and only thrice this season.

The weather calls for rainy skies in Frankfurt, Germany. Jones hasn’t performed well on sunny days, and there is no reason to expect him to exceed 227 passing yards against that defense on Sunday.

Gardner Minshew Over 1.5 TD passes (+140)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

There’s rain in the forecast but very little wind, and I expect Gardner Minshew to come out slinging on Sunday. He’s thrown multiple scoring strikes in two of his last three starts and faces a Patriots passing defense allowing 1.3 TD passes per contest.

The New England secondary has major issues, and to add insult to injury, Pats cornerback J.C. Jackson will not make the trip for personal reasons.

Colts Over 2.5 TDs (+100)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Indianapolis still has a shot at making the playoffs. Minshew and the offense should look forward to this matchup. This game prop has a good price, and unless the 2019 Patriots defense steps on the field, the Colts will score three TDs on New England.

The Pats’ defense allows nearly 2.5 TDs per game, and we also have an Indianapolis defense that has recorded three defensive TDs. The Colts are the only NFL team to score 20+ in every game they’ve played this season, and they will score at least three TDs on New England.

Colts vs Patriots Same Game Parlay

Colts vs Patriots SGP (+650)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.1 units

  • Gardner Minshew Over 1.5 TD passes (+130)
  • Mac Jones Under 1.5 TD passes (-195)
  • Jonathan Taylor Under 70.5 rushing yards (-115)

Except for Minshew, our Week 10 SGP isn’t anything like our best bets because their SGP prices are ridiculous for some of their offerings. Minshew finds the endzone with his arm twice against this banged-up, less-than-confident Patriots passing defense.

Pats quarterback Mac Jones has thrown two scoring strikes or more three times this season, but Indy allows 1.1 TD passes per game. The Pats quarterback doesn’t have the weapons to exceed this prop, which is probably why the Under 1.5 passing TD prop is nearly a 2-1 favorite.

Finally, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor hit the PUP list before the season. Colts RB Zack Moss has filled in nicely and is the second-leading rusher in the NFL. Taylor has exceeded this number twice in the past three, mainly due to a couple of big rushing plays.

The Pats rushing defense allows the 11th-fewest rushing yards per game, and being in a timeshare with Moss coupled with the Pats’ rushing defense gives me confidence in this leg.

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