The NFL season has crossed the halfway point. Let that sink in.
Week 10 features the final NFL game in Europe, as well as four teams on bye. And it’s not just any four teams. This week’s byes include the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, and Philadelphia Eagles.
Sorry, Los Angeles Rams, but we won’t miss you this week.
That means this week’s NFL betting picks will feature some truly vanilla teams, including my best bet to open the second half of the 2023 campaign.
Jeff Hicks’ 2023 NFL Best Bets record: 22-25 (-5.93 units)
*All odds and lines are current as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 7, 2023.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet
Packers vs Steelers Under 38 Points (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
A battle of mediocre quarterback play will take place in Pittsburgh this week. Jordan Love and Kenny Pickett have done little to show that they can be why their team wins, and not in spite of their play.
Both defenses have played exceptional football, especially in the past few games. The Steelers have allowed 17.7 points per game in their past three games, while the Packers have allowed 15.3.
Both teams appear to have avoided adding to their injury reports long-term, which is good news for those choosing to watch this game. This game has a lot of defensive potential, so look away if you are hoping for fireworks.
[pick id= “157136"]
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NFL Week 10 ATS Best Bets
Giants vs Cowboys -16 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This number is creeping up to 16.5 across the board after stalling at 15.5. It’s only going to go higher.
It’s crazy to think that the New York Giants are losing by an average of 18 points per game, and that was before Tommy DeVito was starting.
The rookie will have to start Week 10 with Daniel Jones (ACL) and Tyrod Taylor (ribs) on I.R. DeVito will have to start in Jerry’s World against one of the best pass rushes in the league.
On the other end, Dallas has won by an average of 22 points per game.
I would take this bet until the Cowboys (-17) and the 38.5-point Over/Under is in play.
[pick id= “157138"]
Broncos vs Bills -7.5 (-105)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This line has moved 1.5 points in Buffalo’s favor, and I get why.
The Denver Broncos have allowed an average of 39 points per game away from home, while the Buffalo Bills average 14.3 allowed to their opponents when at home. I do not expect a blowout favoring the Bills, but a one-score win is easier to come by.
I wouldn’t wager on this number past 8.5 because the Bills are still shorthanded at linebacker and in the secondary, and we have seen the offense work at a slower pace and with less consistency. The lack of urgency at times during the Week 9 loss in Cincinnati has been a concern all season.
Denver is also coming off their bye. A week of rest, plus a matchup against the injured Buffalo defense, will keep this game closer.
[pick id= “157139"]
NFL Week 10 Over/Under Best Bets
Jets vs Raiders Under 36.5 Points (-115)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
FanDuel has the last 36.5 available, with books at 36 and 35.5 already.
The New York Jets have had five of their eight games hit the under. The under has hit by an average of 4.3 points.
The Las Vegas Raiders are even worse, having seven of nine games go under. Raiders contests have gone under by an average of 4.9 points.
We also have two very good or elite secondaries in this game and two not-very-good or elite QBs.
[pick id= “157143"]
Commanders vs Seahawks Over 45.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Despite both teams finishing more games below their expected game totals, they both performed well. The Washington Commanders have had the O/U hit in four of nine games, but their contests finish an average of 7.2 points above projection.
The Seattle Seahawks have a -0.8 average but 13, 37, 20, and 24 points at home. The 24 points came against the Cleveland Browns, arguably the best defense in the NFL. Washington is far from that. The Commanders secondary could be chewed up and spit out by Seattle’s trio of wideouts.
Sam Howell deserves a lot of credit for keeping Washington competitive despite getting hit, pressured, and chased all game. Eric Bieniemy’s offensive scheme is likely to get Howell hurt sooner than later, but it has unveiled the second-year QB’s promise.
[pick id= “157147"]
