NFL Week 10 has arrived and playoff pictures are beginning to take shape. With four teams on a bye including the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots, and the New York Jets, there is a 14-game betting slate on tap.
While this slate only features one game where both teams have a winning record, there are a lot of juicy matchups from a betting point of view.
Last week, I finally got out of my own way when it comes to NFL betting picks. I was 3-2 on my best bets, winning 2.5 units. My mid-season breakout has begun.
Anthony Cervino’s 2022 NFL Best Bets Record: 21-30 (-10.5 Units)
*All NFL odds and lines are current as of 1 p.m. ET, on Tuesday, Nov. 8, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cowboys vs Packers Best Bet
Cowboys -5 (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
Although the Cowboys are five-point favorites on the road, this is a game that they should easily win.
While Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense are looking like a shell of themselves, the Packers’ defense just lost Rashan Gary for the year with a knee injury.
What’s more, an already light Packers wide receiver room will now be down Romeo Doubs with an ankle injury. We also are unsure of the playing status of Aaron Jones, who is also dealing with an injured ankle.
Coming off a bye, the Cowboys are rested and looking to separate themselves in the NFC coming off back-to-back blowout wins over NFC North foes.
When it comes to point spread betting, the Cowboys are 6-1 in their past seven games while the Packers have failed to cover in five of their past six.
The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games. They will easily cover in Week 10.
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Lions vs Bears Best Bet
Bears Moneyline (-152)
WAGER: 2 Units
I’ll pay for the juice here and take the rejuvenated Chicago Bears to defeat the Detroit Lions at home. While the Bears have lost two straight games, Justin Fields looks to have turned the corner and taken a massive step forward a few games back in a win over the Patriots on primetime.
And despite those two consecutive losses, the Bears’ offense is firing on all cylinders while Fields is playing like the No. 1 quarterback from the 2021 draft class.
Meanwhile, the Lions defeated the Packers in Week 9 in a shocking defensive battle. The Detroit defense did not suddenly improve. I’ll call that an anomaly.
This will be the best Bears team the Lions have faced in years. And while this game could be close, look for the Bears to come out with a win.
Fields and the Bears’ No. 1 ranked rushing offense will be too much for the Lions’ second-worst rushing defense to handle.
The Bears are 7-1 in their past eight NFL moneyline bets against the Lions. They will get another one in Week 10.
Browns vs Dolphins Best Bet
Over 48.5 Points (-115)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This Browns vs Dolphins matchup features two of the best-scoring offenses as well as two of the worst-scoring defenses in the NFL.
While the Browns and Dolphins are ranked seventh and 10th in scoring, respectively, their defenses are ranked as the 24th and 25th worst.
Normally, this is a recipe for ample points to be scored. While Miami’s offense has been electric, the Browns have managed to get by with their ground-and-pound offense.
And as long as the weather holds up, the cold and wind will not affect anything since this game is being played in Miami.
The Over is 6-2-1 in the past eight games the Browns have played and 3-2 in the past five games the Dolphins have played.
All signs point to the Over in this game hitting in Week 10.
Vikings vs Bills Best Bet
Vikings +6 (-110)
WAGER: 2 Units
Normally, you would think that the Bills are a lock to cover in most situations. However, that has not been the case.
The Bills are 2-3-1 in NFL point spread betting in their past six games overall, failing to cover in two straight.
On the other side, the Vikings are 2-0-1 ATS in their past three with two of those games being played on the road.
We also must consider the fact that the Bills are limping into this game. On top of the uncertainty surrounding Josh Allen‘s elbow injury, the Bills are also banged up on the defensive side of the ball with key players either listed as out or day-to-day.
One of the key points to this game comes in the form of turnovers. The Bills have given the ball away the fourth-most times while the Vikings’ defense is 12th in takeaways.
Although this is a game that Minnesota could win outright following the shakey play we have seen from the Bills of late, it is much safer taking them to cover the six points.
Chargers vs 49ers Best Bet
Over 46.5 Points (-110)
WAGER: 1 Unit
This Chargers vs 49ers meeting features two of the best scoring offenses in the NFL, which is why I am focusing on an NFL totals bet in this matchup.
Although the 49ers’ offense is ranked 19th on paper, they have taken a step forward following the Christian McCaffrey trade. And despite a slew of injuries, the Chargers are still scoring the 13th-most points in the NFL.
Defensively, you can put up points on both of these clubs, which is my expectation in Week 10.
The Over is 3-1 in the past four meetings between the Chargers and 49ers. It is also 3-1 in the past four games the 49ers have played overall.
This will either be a shootout or a game where the 49ers get off to an early lead, which will force the Chargers to put up points in garbage time, which they will do with Justin Herbert. Either way, I would put a unit on the Over hitting.
