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Chiefs vs Raiders Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 22, 2023

These two AFC West rivals, set to meet for the first time this season, are surprisingly just two games apart in the standings. The talent disparity at certain positions is pretty significant in favor of Kansas City, but there are a couple of areas where Las Vegas can actually claim superiority.

Both squads are coming off Week 11 losses, but the Raiders have been notably improved under interim coach Antonio Pierce and now draw an opponent they’ll have no shortage of motivation against in the defending Super Bowl champions.

Can the Raiders pull off what would be one of the season’s biggest NFL betting upsets? Read on for our best bets for this divisional showdown.

Chiefs vs Raiders Odds

NFL odds used for this Kansas City vs Las Vegas preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted and are current as of Tuesday, Nov. 21 and 11:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Chiefs (-380) • Raiders (+300)
  • Spread: Chiefs -8.5 (-112) • Raiders +8.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 43.5 (-105) • Under 43.5 (-115)
  • Implied Score: Chiefs 26, Raiders 17.5

Chiefs vs Raiders Predictions

Score Pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 13

The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes-led offense is talented enough to operate at less than full efficiency and still come up with three to four touchdowns, so I’m going with KC to bounce back from its relatively low-scoring Monday night loss to the Eagles.

However, while the path here shouldn’t be as thorny, it’s likely a safe bet head coach Andy Reid isn’t expecting anything less than a dogfight in this divisional clash. That’s partly due to the familiarity between the teams, and there’s the additional factor of how energized the Raiders have been under Pierce’s leadership.

Vegas will have a rest advantage over the defending champions, but the Raiders will be facing their second straight difficult assignment. Pierce’s squad acquitted itself well in the Week 11 battle against the Dolphins before succumbing by a 20-13 score.

The quarterback and tight end matchup gets exponentially more difficult in this spot given the Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection, but Vegas at least won’t have to worry about any wideout that even comes close to resembling Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle, for that matter.

What could be one of the biggest reasons for the Silver and Black’s demise Sunday may actually be one of the more unsung Chiefs skill-position players, Isiah Pacheco. The second-year back ran with his trademark hard-charging style against the toughest run defense in the league in that of the Eagles on Monday night and nearly hit 100 yards.

What he’ll likely be able to accomplish versus a Raiders squad that’s yielded the fourth-most running back yards (1,207), along with eight rushing TDs to the position and even a 56-386-2 line through the air, as well, could well be the key to the Chiefs being able to pull away for a double-digit win in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs defense should also be able to frustrate Raiders rookie QB Aidan O’Connell, who’s thrown six interceptions and lost a pair of fumbles over five games. KC has picked off a relatively modest six passes, but the Chiefs have racked up 36 sacks and allowed a stingy 60.9 percent completion percentage overall.

While Josh Jacobs, who’s seen his usage skyrocket under Pierce, could certainly find some success KC’s inconsistent run defense, it’s worth noting the Chiefs have been much better versus ground attacks on the road (104.4 rushing yards per game allowed).

Additionally, the Raiders could have a tough time slowing down Kelce, considering they’ve yielded a 55-481-3 line to tight ends.

The Raiders should put up a good fight through three-plus quarters, but they’ll catch a Chiefs team hungry to put their loss to the Eagles behind them and feeling the heat at the top of the division from an improving Broncos team, in addition to the threat Vegas increasingly poses.

As such, a two-touchdown victory is what I envision as the likely outcome.

Chiefs vs Raiders Best Bets & Props

Chiefs -8.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This Chiefs team isn’t always going to record as many lopsided victories as in years past due to the lack of an alpha receiver. However, Mahomes and Kelce are naturally elite options that can help facilitate a win of greater than a TD between the two of them.

Factoring in the success Pacheco should encounter on the ground and what KC’s defense should be capable of doing to the inexperienced O’Connell, I like the chances of the Chiefs eventually pulling away for a double-digit victory as my NFL bet of the day.

Under 43.5 (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The case has previously been made for why the Raiders offense should find points hard to come by in this matchup, and why the Chiefs offense should also encounter their fair share of resistance.

Factor in that KC will be on a short week and Las Vegas’ defense has actually been effective most of the season at home, even before Pierce took over, and I like the case for the Under on what is already a modest total.

Race to 25 points: Chiefs (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

I don’t see the Raiders getting anywhere near the 25-point margin, but as I’ve previously explained, I do see KC just getting over that hump. It would be possible to play it safer here and go with a race to 20 points bet, but the difference in price is staggering – -215 compared to -115.

Consequently, I’ll back my original prediction of a 27-point tally for Mahomes and company with this bet at a palatable price.

Chiefs vs Raiders Same Game Parlay

Chiefs vs Raiders SGP (+195)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

  • Under 43.5 (-115)
  • 1H Under 21.5 (-110)
  • Chiefs (-450)

This parlay combines my belief of a Chiefs outright victory and a lower combined total, but we’ve added the extra leg of Under 21.5 first-half points to give the odds even more of a boost.

The Raiders have actually been the AFC’s stingiest first-half home defense, surrendering a meager 5.6 points per game in that split at Allegiant Stadium. Granted, the list of opponents they’ve faced there – the Steelers, Packers, Patriots, Giants, and Jets – has greatly helped facilitate that number, but Pierce’s defense just passed the most stringent of tests by giving up just 20 total points on the road to the Dolphins.

With the Chiefs also giving up only nine points per first half per road game, a bet on a lower-scoring first half makes sense by the metrics and in conjunction with the full-game Under.

Author

Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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