The Jacksonville Jaguars played up to par in Week 2, dominating the Colts at home. The Jaguars have now won seven straight home games against Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, the Chargers suffered a late-game collapse against the Chiefs and look to bounce back strong in this one.
Which team has the edge?
Read on for our Jacksonville vs Los Angeles predictions, betting tips, and best bets.
Jaguars vs Chargers Odds
Sharp money has come in strong on Jacksonville. The Jaguars opened as nine-point underdogs Monday morning and since have been bet down to seven points.
The Under has taken similarly sharp money, with the total falling from 50.5 to 48 in the past few days. Crossing the key number of 49 is a big deal for betting NFL totals.
Jaguars vs Chargers Implied Totals
Chargers 27.5, Jaguars 20.5
Vegas sees this being a stereotypical NFL game between an elite team and a bad team. We expect Jacksonville to put points on the board, but likely lose by a score to a better team.
Jaguars vs Chargers Pick of the Day
Read more on this Jaguars vs Chargers bet below.
Jaguars vs Chargers Prediction
Chargers 20, Jaguars 17
The big story here is the Chargers’ injuries. Keenan Allen is still hurt, and Justin Herbert is on the injury list now, too. Herbert took a big hit to the midsection during Thursday Night’s game against the Chiefs, and we are unsure if he’ll play.
However, even if he does play, how effective will he be?
The Chargers are one of the NFL’s best all-around rosters, and they got a little unlucky against the Chiefs in Week 2. But having your top quarterback and wide receiver out is a big disadvantage.
The Jaguars are playing much-better football underneath Doug Pederson. Jacksonville’s statistics are skewed by the variance between Week 1 (28-22 loss to Washington) and Week 2 (24-0 win over Indianapolis) but the Jaguars have still been the third-most efficient NFL team on early downs (in EPA/play and EPA/play allowed).
I’m hesitant to pick the Jaguars outright, but I doubt the Chargers pick up a blowout victory given their injuries.
Jaguars vs Chargers Bet Tips
Here are some Jaguars vs Chargers betting trends to think about:
- Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS after allowing fewer than 14 points in their previous game
- Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last seven Week 3 games
- The Under is 13-5 in Jacksonville’s last 18 games
- The Under is 10-1 in the Chargers’ last 11 Week 3 games.
Jaguars vs Chargers Best Bets
Jaguars +7 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
It’s smart to keep picking road dogs in the NFL. Away underdogs are 9-6 ATS this season and have cashed at a 54% clip since 2018 (366-293-19 ATS).
The sharp bettors are on Jacksonville, and the Chargers are due for an ATS loss given they’re 2-0 ATS this season.
Jacksonville is playing good football, Trevor Lawrence is turning into an elite quarterback (sixth in Football Outsiders’ DYAR this season), and the Chargers don’t have a huge home-field advantage.
Throw in the Chargers’ injury issues and Jacksonville is the play.
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Under 47.5 Total Points (-110) at FanDuel
WAGER: 1 Unit
While the Chargers have issues on offense, they are still loaded on defense. Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are monstrous in the front seven while J.C. Jackson and Derwin James lead a stout secondary.
This is, by far, the best defense the Jaguars have faced through three weeks. I could see a huge regression game from Lawrence and co.
Meanwhile, we don’t know what to expect from the Chargers with two of their top weapons out.
The Under has taken the sharp money, and I will be on that side.
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