Two teams with multiple talented offensive pieces but not much to show for it record-wise meet at State Farm Stadium for a Week 10 NFC clash.
The Atlanta Falcons and Arizona Cardinals have respective 4-5 and 1-8 marks, but each team is in line to get back injured players, and that could allow for a much more entertaining game than those records would indicate.
Let’s dive into our Falcons vs. Cardinals NFL Week 10 best bets and predictions.
Falcons vs Cardinals Odds
NFL odds used for this Atlanta vs Arizona preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, November 9 and 11 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Falcons (-125) • Cardinals (+105)
- Spread: Falcons -2 (-105) • Cardinals +2 (-115)
- Total Points: Over 43 (-112) • Under 43 (-108)
- Implied Score: Falcons 22.5, Cardinals 20.5
Falcons vs Cardinals Predictions
Score Pick: Cardinals 24, Falcons 20
If Clayton Tune was back under center for the Cardinals this week, I would be laying out a much different prediction than this one, both in projected winner and the total.
However, Kyler Murray’s expected return changes the entire outlook for this game. The star quarterback has proved a relatively fast healer after tearing his ACL last Dec. 12, as he’s reportedly been moving well in practices for the last three weeks.
The running dimension Murray brings to the table gives a solid-but-not-elite Falcons defense a unique set of concerns that naturally draw its attention away from other components of Arizona’s offensive attack.
There’s also a strong possibility that lead back James Conner, who’s already missed the required four games on injured reserve with a knee sprain, makes his return.
The Falcons defense could present a soft landing for Murray in his first game action in exactly 11 months. Atlanta hasn’t been adept at picking off passes (four interceptions) or getting to the quarterback (19 sacks).
Meanwhile, the Falcons have also given up the seventh-most rushing yards (214) to signal-callers, along with two rushing touchdowns.
In contrast, the Cardinals have 25 sacks, rank in the top 10 in pressure rate (36%) and are tops in the league in sack conversion rate (22%), making them a dangerous matchup for an Atlanta offensive line that’s yielded an NFC-high 21% sack conversion rate.
Even with Atlanta rolling out the experienced Taylor Heinicke again and also getting Drake London back from a one-game absence because of a groin injury, the return of Murray – and to a lesser extent, Conner – will allow the Cardinals to play considerably above their 1-8 record and notching a win at home.
Falcons vs Cardinals Best Bets & Props
Cardinals (+105)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The difference in the Cardinals’ offense and the way the Falcons’ defense will have to approach the matchup with Murray under center should be palpable.
Arizona has been somewhat cagey about Murray’s return, and while the Cards have gone through the feet-dragging process with respect to his season debut, the talented signal-caller has been putting in full practices and was even declared fully healthy by head coach Jonathan Gannon weeks ago.
Therefore, we’ll see a player who won’t quite look like they haven’t taken a snap in 11 months, and if Conner is also able to return, that will naturally be a bonus.
Atlanta will be competitive with the capable Heinicke and London’s return, but a reinvigorated Cardinals squad will commemorate Murray’s long-awaited return with a narrow home win for my NFL bet of the day.
Cardinals +2 (-115)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
In line with the previous bet, Arizona should cover as two-point underdogs. Murray’s presence will help in every facet, including opening up running lanes for whoever is handling the ground attack, and the Cardinals should be able to run enough of a balanced offense to keep the Falcons’ defense on the field for long stretches.
It’s also worth noting the Cardinals are 11-8 against the spread as home underdogs since Murray’s arrival in 2019, even while playing some of those games, especially in the last two seasons, without him under center.
Over 43 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
There’s going to be plenty of offensive ammunition on the field at State Farm on Sunday, and neither defense is close to elite.
Murray will naturally be the biggest factor in what should be a notable offensive boost for the Cardinals, and Conner’s presence would certainly help in that regard.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have their top target back in London and will come at an Arizona defense that has frequently had trouble against the run, with Atlanta wielding a pair of dangerous and versatile backs in Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
When factoring it all together, a game that goes at least slightly Over this modest total is certainly conceivable.
Falcons vs Cardinals Same-Game Parlay
Falcons vs Cardinals SGP (+250)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
- Cardinals +1.5 (-110)
- Kyler Murray Over 216.5 passing yards (-117)
A two-leg parlay already yields an appealing price, so we’ll stick with that size of bet and work with two individual wagers I feel good about.
Caesars does have a half-point less on its spread for the Cardinals, but given my faith in an outright upset, that doesn’t faze me. Then, I am backing Murray to look reasonably sharp right out of the gate, with his solid group of pass-catching weapons, led by Marquise Brown, aiding him in that regard.
The Falcons have surrendered 230 passing yards per road game at 10.1 yards per completion, so the opportunity is there on paper for Murray to surpass this reasonable yardage number.
