It’s hard to believe, but we’re only a few weeks away from the end of what has been an absolutely thrilling NFL regular season. So, let’s dig into a surprisingly pivotal matchup in an intriguing NFC postseason hunt.
The Bucs have seen their odds to win the NFC South skyrocket since the start of the season, while the Packers, who also own a 6-7 record, are tied for the NFC’s seventh seed.
Will the rise of Jordan Love lift Green Bay back to .500, or will the resurgent Baker Mayfield keep Tampa on top in a tight division race? Let’s get into the odds and some predictions for this fascinating clash.
Buccaneers vs Packers Odds
NFL odds used for this Tampa Bay vs Green Bay preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Dec. 13, at noon ET.
- Moneyline: Packers (-180) • Buccaneers (+150)
- Spread: Packers -3.5 (-108) • Buccaneers +3.5 (-112)
- Total Points: Over 42 (-108) • Under 42 (-112)
- Implied Score: Packers 22.75, Buccaneers 19.25
Buccaneers vs Packers Predictions
Score Pick: Packers 20, Buccaneers 19
The Bucs have more or less beaten the teams they should and lost to the better squads, so a clash with a team whose record identically matches theirs provides us with an interesting decision to make.
The Packers have played the other two teams tied with Tampa in the NFC South Standings; they lost to the Falcons by a point, and beat the Saints by the same narrow margin, so they seem to be sitting in the exact same tier as those teams, and by association, Tampa.
As much as he’s come along in recent weeks, Love is still a pretty inconsistent passer, as we saw in a brutal loss to the Giants. With most of his offensive skill weapons injured, it’s hard to trust him to run up the score, but we also shouldn’t invest in the often-shaky Bucs to come away with the outright win in a hostile, cold-weather setting.
Tampa should stay right in this one, but home-field advantage and a coaching edge should win the day for Green Bay.
Buccaneers vs Packers Best Bets & Props
Buccaneers +3.5 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Given the half-point hook, making this our NFL bet of the day for this matchup isn’t a tough choice. The Bucs’ offense has been consistent of late despite the threat of a ground game, as Mayfield has connected well with Mike Evans, easily the best receiver he’s ever played with.
Evans and the rest of Tampa’s solid receiving options should be able to find some space against a Packers defense that could once again be without star cornerback Jaire Alexander.
The Bucs’ defense isn’t a perfect unit, either, but it’s worth wondering if the Packers can exploit their weaknesses given injuries to top running back Aaron Jones and most of the receiving corps. Essentially, every key offensive skill player, other than Romeo Doubs, is going to be out or limited, making it tough to back the Pack in this one.
Under 42 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This number gives us access to the most key number in NFL totals betting, 41, as well as the second-most common, 37. It’s also some nice value due to those injuries in the Green Bay offense, with guys like Christian Watson and breakout rookie Jayden Reed potentially set to miss the game.
Tampa’s biggest offensive issue has been running the football for multiple seasons now, and it’s not set to turn around anytime soon. Only three teams run for fewer yards per game than Tampa, and nobody has a worse per-rush average than the Bucs’ figure of 3.5.
Rachaad White has been awful and the offensive line has taken a big step back, so as a one-dimensional offense, it’s hard to imagine them scoring much at Lambeau.
Bucs First to Score (+100)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
With so many key pieces out, it’s going to be hard for the Packers to build offensive momentum early in this game. Conversely, the Bucs are usually a pretty good bet to string together a good first drive while Mayfield is working within a script.
They’ve scored first in their past three games, as big chunk passing plays have reliably gotten them into position to at least kick a field goal early on.
Buccaneers vs Packers Same Game Parlay
Buccaneers vs Packers SGP (+390)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- Packers (-180)
- Buccaneers +10 (-319)
- Total 2H Over 19.5 (-122)
We’ll look to thread the needle in this one as we project the Packers to win, but the Bucs to keep things relatively close, giving us a nine-point range of outcomes to hit this bet and a push point with a margin of 10.
As for the second-half line, this number is actually set lower than the number for the first half, a curious quirk considering Tampa’s penchant for late-game fireworks and the likelihood that it takes the Packers some time to adjust to a diminished group of weapons before figuring things out late in the game.
