The Cleveland Browns will look to get off to a 3-1 start for the second straight year when they travel to Mercedes-Benz Stadium to take on the Atlanta Falcons.
Last week, Cleveland was coming off a heart-breaking home loss to the Jets in which they had a 13-point lead with under two minutes remaining, but they rebounded by beating the Steelers 29-17.
The Falcons tallied their first win of the season last week, scoring a final-minute touchdown to beat the Seahawks 27-23.
Continue reading for the best betting tips and predictions for Cleveland vs Atlanta in Week 4.
Browns vs Falcons Odds
The Browns opened as a 1.5-point road favorite despite looking unimpressive thus far this season.
Oddsmakers believe this will be one of the higher scoring games of the week, with the total at 49.5, the second-highest total in the NFL in Week 4.
Browns vs Falcons Implied Totals
Browns 25.5, Falcons 24
The oddsmakers are showing a bit of disrespect to the Falcons by setting them as a home underdog to a Browns team that has lost to the Jets and narrowly snuck past the Steelers and Panthers this season.
Browns vs Falcons Pick of the Day
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Browns vs Falcons Prediction
Browns 27, Falcons 24
Despite starting the season with a backup quarterback due to Deshaun Watson’s suspension, and giving up two touchdowns in under two minutes in the loss to the Jets, the Browns have managed a 2-1 start with a winnable game here in Week 4.
Jacoby Brissett has managed games well enough to win, completing 66.3% of his passes and throwing just one interception. However, the key to the Browns’ offense is the run game led by Nick Chubb (341 yards and four touchdowns) and Kareem Hunt (151 yards and a touchdown).
The Falcons’ defense is allowing 109.3 rush yards per game this season, and although the young front seven has shown signs of improvement, they’re going to be outmatched against one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks.
The Falcons’ passing game — despite using back-to-back first-round picks on pass catchers — has struggled behind Marcus Mariota. Drake London has been his favorite target and caught the game-winning touchdown against Seattle. Kyle Pitts was able to get back on track in that game, turning in his best outing of the year with five receptions for 87 yards.
Myles Garrett, the star of the Browns’ defensive line, was taken to the hospital following a car accident on Monday, but was later released with non-life-threatening injuries. Although his playing status is not yet confirmed, it seems unlikely that he will be able to play on Sunday given the reports that his car flipped multiple times.
Browns vs Falcons Bet Tips
The recent betting trends for Browns vs Falcons do provide some clarity for the reasoning behind the high total and the Falcons being a home underdog:
- Atlanta is 1-9 straight up in their last 10 home games.
- Cleveland Overs are 3-0 this season, going above the Over by an average of 12.8 points per game.
- Atlanta Overs are 3-0 this season, going above the Over by an average of nine points per game.
Browns vs Falcons Best Bets
Browns Moneyline (-124) at FanDuel Sportsbook
This simply boils down to the Falcons being unable to stop the Browns’ rushing attack. Cleveland averages 197.5 yards per game on the ground, and even if the Falcons know what is coming, they’re going to have problems stopping it.
Cleveland has the better run game, the better defense, and arguably the better quarterback. Even going on the road, the Browns are able to pick up the win over the Falcons.
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Over 47.5 Points (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Cleveland will more than likely be missing Myles Garrett in this game, which leaves a massive hole in the center of the defense. Even if he gives it a go, I like this total to go Over.
Both teams have had the total coast Over in each of the first three games, and a back-and-forth game without many stops seems likely.
I could see Nick Chubb breaking off a long touchdown run, a couple of turnovers from these two quarterbacks to set up easy drives for the opponent, and both of these teams failing to get stops in the red zone.
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