Patriots vs Bills Predictions & Odds

Last Updated: Jan 5, 2023

After a traumatic week, the Buffalo Bills (12-3) will try to get back to football on Sunday, Jan. 8 when they host the New England Patriots (8-8) at Highmark Stadium.

I can only imagine how difficult that task will be after Bills safety Damar Hamlin suffered cardiac arrest in Monday night’s game against the Bengals and remains in critical condition at a local Cincinnati hospital.

Thankfully, we heard some positive reports on Hamlin’s health Thursday and we can only hope that his condition continues to improve.

It is impossible to know how Hamlin’s injury will affect Sunday’s game, but let’s take a look at the New England vs Buffalo odds for this Week 18 AFC East matchup.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

The Bills are listed as seven-point home favorites at Caesars Sportsbook. The spread has moved a half-point in New England’s direction since opening on Tuesday.

The Over/Under is currently listed at 42.5 total points, which is surprisingly among the higher totals for this Week 18 slate.

Take a look at the best Patriots odds and Bills odds for the 2022 NFL season.

Patriots vs Bills Implied Totals

Bills 24.75, Patriots 17.75

Oddsmakers are expecting the Bills (26.3) and Patriots (21.3) to fail to reach their season averages in points, with Buffalo ultimately emerging victorious by a touchdown on Sunday.

Patriots vs Bills Pick of the Day

Read more on this Patriots vs Bills bet below.

Patriots vs Bills Prediction

Bills 23, Patriots 13

The Patriots need to win this game to return to the postseason. However, New England has lost five of its last six meetings with Buffalo, with the lone exception being a wind-affected matchup in Buffalo that saw Mac Jones attempt just three passes.

Sunday’s forecast looks relatively calm for January in Buffalo, with temperatures around freezing and wind gusts below 10 mph. That means Josh Allen should have minimal trouble airing it out to his talented group of pass-catchers.

The greatest unknown here is how the events of the past week will affect Buffalo, but I’m expecting the Bills to rally in front of their home crowd. Sean McDermott is one of the best coaches in the league and will have his guys prepared and ready to win one for Hamlin.

Patriots vs Bills Bet Tips

Here are a couple of Patriots vs Bills betting trends to consider before making your bets:

  • The Bills are 7-7-1 against the spread this season, while the Patriots have a 7-8-1 ATS record.
  • The Under is 10-5-1 in Buffalo’s games and 9-7 in New England’s games this season.

Patriots vs Bills Best Bets

Under 21 1H Points (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I like the full game Under as well, but I could definitely see Buffalo getting off to a slower start than usual given the emotion of the week and the likely overwhelming atmosphere Bills Mafia will create on Sunday.

New England’s offense has struggled to put up points all season long, even in the scripted portion of the game, as the Patriots average just 8.6 first-half points per game.

Soon you will be able to bet on the Patriots with these Massachusetts sportsbooks!

Bills -7 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

Each of Buffalo’s last four victories against New England have come by double digits, including a 24-10 win in Foxborough earlier this season.

Allen’s rocket arm and uncanny ability to make plays with his legs has given this Patriots defense fits in recent years, and I don’t see why the home team won’t win big once again.

Want to bet on the Bills? Check out the best NY sportsbooks!

Patriots vs Bills Props

Check out the best Patriots vs Bills player prop bets this week with our props comparison tool. Click on “Show More Games" below to find the New England vs Buffalo game and see all of its prop bets.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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