Patriots vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 29, 2023

This Week 17 AFC East matchup features a streaking 9-6 Bills team fighting for their playoff lives against a 4-11 Patriots team looking to save their head coach’s job.

Will MVP candidate Josh Allen carry the Bills to a fourth straight win or will the Patriots head to Buffalo and pull off an upset on the Bills for the second time this season?

Let’s take a look at the NFL Week 17 odds for this game and find some betting value.

Patriots vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this New England vs Buffalo preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, Dec. 28 at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-750) • Patriots (+525)
  • Spread: Bills -13 (-112) • Patriots +13 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 40.5 (-112) • Under 40.5 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Bills 26.75, Patriots 13.75

Patriots vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17

While the Patriots are in the midst of a season they’d like to forget, they’ve rallied around head coach Bill Belichick as rumors of his firing swirl and have now won two of their last three games.

The Bills, on the other hand, have won three straight (and four of their last five) and now look like one of the most dangerous playoff teams – if they can get there. They’re currently positioned as the fifth seed in the AFC, but a loss could quickly put them on the outside looking in.

The Patriots pulled off a last-second 29-25 upset the last time these two teams played in Week 7 in Foxborough, but that seems like a lifetime ago, as the Patriots have since replaced quarterback Mac Jones with Bailey Zappe. While Zappe has looked better than Jones, he’s also failed to put together a full game of good football, so it’s tough to put much faith in the Patriots this week.

With Allen playing like an MVP candidate and second-year running back James Cook looking like a shiny new weapon, the Bills should be able to push their home record to 7-2 this week and avenge their Week 7 loss.

Patriots vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Patriots +13 (-108)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units

It’s easy to look at the Patriots record and assume they’ll just get smoked on the road, but they’ve been a different team since Zappe took over and are relishing the role of spoiler after hurting both the Steelers’ and Broncos’ playoff chances.

They’ve struggled against the Bills in recent seasons, but they’ve usually kept things close, with two of the past three matchups coming within 12 points (including the Patriots win earlier this season).

While I’d be absolutely shocked if the Patriots win this game, they should be able to keep things close, and I’m locking this in as my NFL bet of the day.

Over 40.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Bills have also turned their season around since that loss and are now the playoff team that no one wants to face. They’ve scored 24-plus points in four of their last five games and have held opponents to 17 points or less in three of their last five.

The Patriots are currently last in the league in scoring at 14.1 points per game, but Zappe has led the Patriots to 17 or more points in each of their last three games. While the Bills are a top-5 defense in terms of points allowed per game at 18.4, Zappe has unlocked at least some upside in the Patriots offense.

As long as the Patriots can put up 17-plus points in this game, we should hit the over relatively easily, as the Bills offense has been a juggernaut and should have no problem topping 24 points.

Bailey Zappe Over 205.5 Passing Yards (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Zappe is 2-2 since taking over as the Patriots’ starter and has thrown for more than 205 yards in two of those games. He’s been a tale-of-two-halves quarterback in each of the team’s last three games, alternating between looking like the fourth-round pick that he was and an All-Pro quarterback.

With the Patriots finding their rhythm on offense last week with DeVante Parker and Demario Douglas playing bigger roles, Zappe should be able to be the third quarterback to put up 205-plus passing yards against the Bills in their last four games.

Patriots vs Bills Same Game Parlay

Patriots vs Bills SGP (+246)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 unit(s)

  • Bills (-750)
  • Josh Allen Anytime TD Scorer (-105))
  • Josh Allen Over 238.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Allen has scored a rushing touchdown in each of the Bills’ last four games and has racked up a total of six during that span. He’s also topped 238.5 passing yards eight times this season – including the Week 7 loss to New England.

As long as you think the Bills can beat the Patriots this week, the two Allen-related legs to this bet are safe enough to lock in this parlay at +246 odds.


Nick Roberts

Nick is an analyst at The Game Day who writes about the NFL and NBA from a betting perspective. He previously contributed to RotoWorld, Rotowire, and The New York Times. Nick resides in New Jersey.

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