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Jets vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Nov 14, 2023

The Buffalo Bills and New York Jets are coming off brutal losses to AFC West foes, but with both squads sitting just around .500, they still harbor playoff hopes.

The last time these division rivals met, the Jets pulled off a dramatic comeback for the ages after quarterback Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury, so the Bills will be looking for some revenge as they attempt to defend their home field and maintain their NFL playoff odds.

It’s hard to know who will win this drastic clash of styles, but let’s try and figure it out as we dig into some odds, predictions, and best bets for this pivotal contest.

Jets vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this New York vs Buffalo preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Nov. 14 at 1:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-298) • Jets (+240)
  • Spread: Bills -7 (-110) • Underdog +7 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 40 (-110) • Under 40 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Bills 23.5, Jets 16.5

Jets vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Jets 17, Bills 13

Simply put, it’s hard to imagine this iteration of the Bills moving the ball on this Jets defense. Josh Allen is in such a bad slump that Buffalo’s offense looked possibly the best it did all night in the loss to the Broncos on a drive where he didn’t throw the ball once, and the Bills even just fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.

On the other side, the Jets are in an almost impossible stretch of offensive ineptitude, as they haven’t scored in the past 11 quarters they’ve played.

That said, the Bills defense is in dire straits, as injuries have rocked the unit, which has struggled mightily in recent weeks. The Denver Broncos and Cincinnati Bengals each hung 24 points on the Bills, while the anemic New England Patriots offense scored 29 not too long ago.

The one solid unit on either team is the Jets defense, which we already know can force Josh Allen into his signature mistakes- he threw three picks in New Jersey in the opening-day loss. The Jets can win another gritty one, sweep the season series, and leave Buffalo seriously questioning what’s next as they sit with a 5-6 record.

Jets vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Jets +7 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

For our NFL bet of the day, we will back the Jets to at least keep this one close.

Yes, they’re going on the road, but the Bills’ home field isn’t exactly a fortress; the Broncos just won there on Monday Night. That slightly shorter week after the primetime game isn’t a positive for Buffalo, who will lose a precious day of rest and preparation.

There shouldn’t be enough scoring for Buffalo to pull away. Unless they crack the Jets defense in a way they haven’t in the past and have shown no ability to do, they’d need to essentially shut out New York to cover this number.

That’s not impossible. The Jets offense isn’t exactly a juggernaut, but Buffalo’s defense has been bottom-five by EPA over the past few weeks, so it’s not in any form to be winning games without the offense’s help.

Under 40 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

As tough as this matchup should be for the Bills, the Jets haven’t shown much of an ability to help themselves offensively.

Zach Wilson has thrown just one touchdown in his last five games and has been picked off twice across that span. Even star running back Breece Hall is slumping, as he’s run for just 134 yards over the past four games.

The Bills will also be adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, with Joe Brady taking on the role in an interim capacity after the firing of Dorsey. It might take a while for things to turn around in Buffalo, and this game won’t be easy for them to adjust on the fly.

Race to 25 Points: Neither (+105)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

We will double down on the low total and assert that neither team will surpass the significant plateau of 24 points. The Jets haven’t done so since an Oct 8 win over a very injured Broncos defense, and they’ve scored 18 total points via six field goals over their past two games.

As for the Bills, they last touched 25 points in a loss to the Patriots on Oct 22; they’ve played three games since then. In that contest against New England, they scored exactly 25 and haven’t been any higher since the first day of October, their last truly excellent performance.

Jets vs Bills Same Game Parlay

Jets vs Bills SGP (+405)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Jets +10.5 (-179)
  • Under 4 Total Touchdowns (+105)
  • Over 2.5 Turnovers (-135)

For our parlay, we will give the Jets just a bit more leeway on the spread, including a valuable half-point hook that allows them to cover even if they lose by a touchdown and a field goal.

The touchdowns leg is a solid value as well, as both teams feature a top-10 red zone defense, but the Jets are by far the league’s worst offense inside the 20, as they’ve scored a touchdown on just 22.73% of such drives.

Lastly, the turnovers number could plausibly be broken by just one of the two teams; Zach Wilson has fumbled six times in the past three games, while Josh Allen has thrown four picks over the same span and at least one in each of his past six games.

Allen also threw three picks and fumbled twice in that loss to the Jets, so this defense clearly has his number; that’s not a good thing for a player who clearly gets in his own head from time to time.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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