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Jaguars vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 5, 2023

The Jacksonville Jaguars still don’t look like themselves on offense, but they managed to get to 2-2 on Sunday with a 23-7 win over the Falcons in London.

Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills recorded a statement 48-20 win over the Dolphins in Week 4 that serves as a reminder of which team rules the roost in the AFC East.

The two squads meet in the United Kingdom’s capital, Jacksonville’s home away from home, on Sunday.

Jaguars vs Bills Odds

NFL odds used for this Jacksonville vs Buffalo preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted and are current as of Wednesday, October 4 at 6:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-238) • Jaguars (+195)
  • Spread: Bills -5.5 (-112) • Jaguars +5.5 (-108)
  • Total Points: Over 48 (-112) • Under 48 (-108)
  • Implied Score: Bills 26.75, Jaguars 21.25

Jaguars vs Bills Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 24, Jaguars 17

The Bills have been on a mission to exorcise the memory of a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Jets in Week 1, throttling their next three opponents – the Raiders, Commanders and Dolphins – by a combined score of 123-33.

Josh Allen is making the early case for an MVP nod, and both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are making their share of big plays.

Buffalo’s abundance of offensive success has even come with key complementary pieces such as James Cook, rookie Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir not hitting their stride.

Buffalo’s defense is not to be overlooked. The Bills allow the sixth-fewest total yards per game (288.0) while allowing just three touchdown passes, recording eight interceptions and tallying 16 sacks.

That’s a daunting matchup for a Jaguars offense that’s underachieved relative to preseason expectations after last year’s breakout campaign, averaging a middle-of-the-road 329.3 total yards per contest.

Jacksonville’s defense is a stalwart unit in its own right, but it’s not quite on the Bills’ level.

The Jags have allowed 333 total yards per game, which only ranks them 17th. They also have a relatively modest four interceptions and nine sacks through four games despite facing three inexperienced QBs in Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud and Desmond Ridder.

Ultimately, I see the Jags giving the Bills a game, but Buffalo’s superior talent at key positions should be enough for a lower-scoring but relatively sizable win.

Jaguars vs Bills Best Bets & Props

Bills -5.5 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Bills will eventually pull away for a win of at least a touchdown. Buffalo has certainly proved capable of blowing teams out, but the Jaguars will give them enough of a fight to keep this reasonably close

Nevertheless, in large part because of the Bills’ accomplished offense, I’m tabbing a Buffalo win of at least six points as my NFL bet of the day.

Under 48 (-112)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Defense will have the biggest influence in keeping the total for this game relatively modest.

Buffalo is surrendering an AFC-low 13.8 points per game, while Jacksonville is yielding a respectable 20.5 points per contest.

Additionally, two of Jacksonville’s first four games have finished with totals under 48, while three of Buffalo’s contests have culminated with combined totals of 48 or lower.

Trevor Lawrence Under 246.5 passing yards (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Bills have an opportunistic pass defense that’s done a good job of both pressuring quarterbacks and snagging passes.

That’s bad news for Lawrence, who’s thrown for 241 yards or under in three of his first four games. The Bills are also surrendering 9.2 yards per completion – the ninth-lowest figure in the NFL – and Lawrence is averaging a conservative 6.6 yards per attempt.

Tre’Davious White’s season-ending Achilles tear suffered in Week 4 is naturally going to have a negative effect on the Bills’ secondary overall, but scrappy fill-in Dane Jackson, who recorded a pair of interceptions and broke up 12 additional passes last season, could prove to be an effective substitute.

Lawrence falling under 246.5 passing yards is certainly in play.

Jaguars vs Bills Same-Game Parlay

Jaguars vs Bills SGP (+420)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Bills (-250)
  • Under 48.5 (-110)
  • James Cook Over 15.5 receiving yards (-106)

This parlay combines two bets that I’ve already elaborated on with a Cook parlay that should be in his wheelhouse.

The Jaguars come in having already allowed a 24-133 line through the air to running backs over four games, and Cook has recorded 17 or more receiving yards in three of his first four games.

The explosive second-year back doesn’t even need multiple catches to cash his leg of the prop, with his 48-yard catch against the Dolphins in Week 4 serving as Exhibit A.

That was his second catch of 20-plus yards this season, and prior to Week 4, he’d logged multiple targets in each game.

Author

Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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