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Bills vs Chargers Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Dec 21, 2023

The suddenly surging Buffalo Bills travel to face the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday night.

The Bolts have a 5-9 record, with five losses in the last six contests and the one win being a 6-0 victory over the New England Patriots.

The 63-21 thrashing at the hands of the Las Vegas Raiders last week ended the respective tenures of head coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco.

With Buffalo pushing to complete a comeback from midseason struggles by securing at least an AFC wild-card berth, here are the Bills-Chargers best bets based on NFL Week 16 odds.

Bills vs Chargers Odds

NFL odds used for this Buffalo vs Los Angeles preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted and are current as of Wednesday, December 20, at 9 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Bills (-850) • Chargers (+525)
  • Spread: Bills -11.5 (-115) • Chargers +11.5 (-105)
  • Total Points: Over 44 (-110) • Under 44 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Bills 27.75, Chargers 16.25

Bills vs Chargers Predictions

Score Pick: Bills 34, Chargers 13

For a time in November, the Bills looked like they wouldn’t even have the chance to maintain their annual tradition of untimely and unlikely postseason departures.

However, after consecutive wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys, Sean McDermott’s squad is now 8-6 and firmly in the conversation for an AFC playoff spot, albeit alongside a plethora of other hopefuls.

With three weeks to go and plenty of teams bunched up at 8-6, all the Bills can do is stack up wins and essentially try to run the table the rest of the way.

That’s why even with big back-to-back victories that could easily lead to a letdown – not to mention a team in the Chargers that Buffalo could be tempted to take lightly – there won’t be anything but full throttle exhibited by Josh Allen and his teammates in this matchup.

On paper, this game doesn’t project as anything but a double-digit win for the Bills, and that’s even factoring in a potential Keenan Allen return from a one-game absence because of a heel injury.

Take the Chargers’ top target out of the equation – and it’s worth noting Keenan Allen did sit out both Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s practices – and you have an even bigger mismatch.

The Bills simply have an advantage at every position, with James Cook – who’s coming off the best game of his career with 221 total yards and two total TDs versus the Cowboys – easily superior to a currently ineffective Austin Ekeler.

With the Chargers’ running game not showing much of a pulse, inexperienced quarterback Easton Stick has the odds even more stacked against him versus a Bills defense brimming with confidence after its domination of Dallas in Week 15.

The final piece of the puzzle in what should be an easy Bills win is the matchup between Josh Allen and his pass catchers against the Chargers’ leaky pass defense.

Los Angeles allows 262.1 passing yards per home game at a joint-NFL-high 11.5 yards per completion, along with an AFC-high 90 receptions and 679 receiving yards to running backs overall.

Bills vs Chargers Best Bets & Props

Bills -11.5 (-115)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Bills outclass the Chargers in every facet, especially if Keenan Allen sits out again. While there’s something to be said for the boost teams often get in their first game under an interim head coach, that won’t apply here.

Not only is Buffalo clearly the better team, but it’s fair to question how much heart Los Angeles will play with despite technically still being alive for a playoff spot. As such, I’m making a Bills cover my NFL bet of the day.

Over 44 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Bills’ offense is clicking, and after numerous heartbreaking playoff failures during his tenure, it doesn’t seem likely McDermott will go all out in an effort to sew up a postseason spot and get his team’s killer instinct sharpened before a potential playoff run.

Consequently, I see the perfect storm of a hot, healthy and talented Bills offense and a potentially unmotivated and short-handed Chargers defense leading to a big night for Josh Allen and his weapons.

The Chargers should also be good for some garbage-time points, pushing the game over the total.

James Cook 100+ rush yards (+450)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Cook’s Week 15 offered a glimpse of the sky-high potential the second-year back possesses, and he’ll keep it going in this matchup. The Chargers have started to falter some against the run of late, allowing 126.0 rushing yards per game over the last three contests.

Buffalo’s offensive line is also facilitating an impressive 1.57 yards per carry before first contact, while Los Angeles’ defensive line is yielding an NFL-high 1.90 yards per carry before first contact, per Pro Football Focus.

Cook’s speed and explosiveness could easily help him achieve this prop with the help of some chunk plays, and the Bills should be in the right game script in the second half to give him ample opportunity on the ground.

Bills vs Chargers Same-Game Parlay

Bills vs Chargers SGP (+217)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

  • Bills (-800)
  • Over 43.5 (-115)
  • Josh Allen Over 236.5 passing yards (-114)

The case for a Bills win is obvious, and FanDuel offers us a slight break on the massive price for that bet.

With the surest bet of the night kicking off our parlay, we move on to the Over on a total that is a half-point lower on FD, and we then bank on Josh Allen continuing his strong stretch of play with a solid day through the air against the Chargers’ porous secondary.

Author

Juan Carlos Blanco

Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports since 1997 and actively writing about the fantasy sports and sports betting industries since 2015 for multiple websites. He has covered a wide variety of professional sports leagues, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, CFL, Arena Football League, Alliance of American Football, XFL, NPB and KBO. He was the recipient of the FSWA's 2016 Newcomer of the Year award for his work with RotoWire.

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