It’s often tough to find the value in NFL Week 18 odds as some teams have nothing to play for, so the effect of motivation levels can be hard to quantify.
We’ll have no such struggle in this matchup. The Chicago Bears may be eliminated, but keeping their bitterest rivals out of the postseason by beating them for the first time since 2018 is more than enough reason for them to push as hard as possible.
As for the Green Bay Packers, in addition to the rivalry angle, they need this win to get into the playoffs, just as they did in Week 18 last year. That was a game where they failed to get the job done.
Let’s get into the odds an make some predictions for what figures to be yet another thrilling installment of the league’s oldest rivalry
Bears vs Packers Odds
NFL odds used for this Chicago vs Green Bay preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, Jan. 3, at 10:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Packers (-166) • Bears (+140)
- Spread: Packers -3 (-115) • Bears +3 (-105)
- Total Points: Over 44 (-112) • Under 44 (-108)
- Implied Score: Packers 23.5, Bears 20.5
Bears vs Packers Predictions
Score Pick: Bears 27, Packers 23
Simply put, the Bears’ record does not reflect how good they truly are at this point in the season. It’s bogged down by early results when the team was injured and looking for its identity, as well as three almost-impossible losses after leading by double digits in the fourth quarter.
The team has been especially solid since the return of quarterback Justin Fields from injury. They’re 4-2 since he’s been back, and the two losses are in that group of three highly improbable ones.
This team is trending upwards, and as they hold the No. 1 overall pick via the Carolina Panthers, Fields, coach Matt Eberflus, and other key contributors around the franchise are all looking to earn their place in the team’s future. A rivalry win to cap off a prolonged hot streak would be a major feather in all of their caps.
As for the Packers, they’ve enjoyed improved play from young quarterback Jordan Love, but the defense under coordinator Joe Barry has imploded. Specifically, the pass defense is now near or even at the bottom of the league by most metrics.
While Minnesota’s Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall couldn’t punish them for it, the Bears can, through the link-up between Fields and superstar wideout DJ Moore.
Bears vs Packers Best Bets & Props
Bears (+140)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Sometimes, history does repeat itself, and for our NFL bet of the day, we’re going to project that it will. Last year, the Packers were at home in Week 18 for a win-and-in opportunity against another underdog divisional rival, the Detroit Lions. The rest, as they say, is history.
Detroit won, setting it on the trajectory that has it now atop the division, and the Seattle Seahawks made the playoffs instead of the Packers.
Interestingly enough, if the Packers miss the playoffs, the Seahawks will likely be the beneficiaries once again. Of course, none of this is a reason the Packers will lose again, although it is going to be on the minds of many players and coaches as they take the field Sunday.
In addition to the inability of the Packers to slow Fields and company, they probably won’t be able to run the ball on a Chicago ground defense that has evolved into one of the league’s best. This will force Love into too many obvious passing situations and leave him vulnerable to an improved Bears pass rush.
Over 44 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Of course, the Bears’ secondary hasn’t become the Legion of Boom overnight. If Love is throwing a lot, he might make some mistakes but he’ll also find some successes.
The Packers will help to push pace by staying in the air to avoid that great run defense, while the Bears will be able to do more or less whatever they want. Their rushing offense is top 10 by most metrics, and just about anyone can throw the ball on this iteration of the Packers defense.
Bears 1H +2.5 (-112)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
As we all know by now, the Bears have had their share of late-game struggles. So, why not protect yourself against such failures by pairing that moneyline with a first-half spread?
Even in the Week 1 loss to Green Bay, which ended up being an 18-point loss, Chicago was down by just four points at halftime. No, that’s not good enough to cover the spread, but it shows the gaps between this team’s first- and second-half performances.
If it can stay close in this one, which it should, you can expect that it was due to it competing at a high level right out of the gates.
Bears vs Packers Same Game Parlay
Bears vs Packers SGP (+114)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
- Bears +3 (-105)
- Bears Over 16.5 (-238)
- Packers Under 31.5 (-485)
With no player props available yet, this parlay will build off of the same concepts we discussed for the individual wagers above. We’ll start by shifting from the moneyline to the spread, to get a bit safer and protect against another heartbreaking Bears loss.
We’ll also invest in Chicago’s offense to do the bare minimum and get into the high teens against that terrible Green Bay defense, and for its defense to do the same, by shutting off the ground game and slowing Love enough to keep his team’s score at 31 or lower.
