This intra-NFC matchup features the 6-3 San Francisco 49ers against the 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers with some of the more interesting Week 11 odds. Their records look very different, but both teams are fighting for first place in their division as the 49ers are tied atop the NFC West with the Seahawks, while the Buccaneers are a half-game behind the 5-5 Saints.
Both teams head into this matchup coming off a win, as the 49ers were able to end their three-game losing streak with a 34-3 beatdown of the Jaguars this past Sunday, and the Buccaneers were able to end their four-game losing streak with a 20-6 victory over the Titans.
With the Saints on a bye this week, the Buccaneers will be looking to tie things up in the NFC South, while the 49ers will be looking to keep pace with the Seahawks as they take on the Rams.
With that in mind, let’s look at this matchup to see what type of betting value we can find.
Buccaneers vs 49ers Odds
NFL odds used for this Tampa Bay vs San Francisco preview were found at DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of Tuesday, November 14 at 11 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: 49ers (-575) • Buccaneers (+400)
- Spread: 49ers -11.5 (-110) • Buccaneers +11.5 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 41.5 (-108) • Under 41.5 (-112)
- Implied Score: 49ers 26.25, Buccaneers 15.25
Buccaneers vs 49ers Predictions
Score Pick: 49ers 30, Buccaneers 17
With the return of Deebo Samuel and Trent Williams last week, the 49ers are starting to get healthy at the right time.
After scuffling through their three previous losses, Brock Purdy put together a strong performance against the Jaguars. With a full complement of weapons available to him, Purdy put up 296 passing yards and three touchdowns and will look to build on that performance in this home matchup.
Baker Mayfield has put together a solid season but comes into this matchup with a thumb injury. While he’s not expected to miss any practice time, the injury is problematic as the Bucs come up against arguably the toughest defense they’ll face all year.
Though the Buccaneers have been a bit of a surprise this season, they haven’t beaten any good teams (unless you count the Vikings), and they’re coming up against a 49ers squad that’s starting to look like a juggernaut again.
Buccaneers vs 49ers Best Bets & Props
49ers Over 27.5 (+110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units
If you look at the Team Total props, 27.5 is where we start to get plus odds on the 49ers team total points. And as I mentioned, the 49ers are coincidentally averaging 28.0 points per game this season.
Does that mean the 49ers will automatically score 28 points this week? Of course not. But they’re fully healthy again and are coming off scoring 34 points on the road last week.
The downside is that the Buccaneers only allow an average of 19.2 points per game, but I like the odds enough here to take the plunge on the 49ers surpassing 27.5 points as my NFL bet of the day.
Over 41.5 (-108)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
While the 49ers have a really good defense, they’ve also allowed lesser offenses like the Vikings, Rams, and Browns to put up 17 or more points against them this season (though it’s worth noting they’re allowing just 15.9 points per game – good for second-best in the league).
For their part, the Buccaneers are averaging almost 20 points a game and have scored at least 18 points in their last three games. That doesn’t mean it’s a given that the Buccaneers will score around 20 points this week, but getting anywhere close to 14 or 15 points sets us up nicely, as the 49ers are averaging points per game.
It will be close, but as long as each of these teams score anywhere close to their season averages, we should easily hit the over in this one.
49ers Win By 13-18 (+400)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
This bet is a little riskier due to its specificity, but if you like the 49ers to cover, this bet screams value at +400.
Could they cover by winning by 12 points? Yup. Could they cover by winning by more than 18? Also yup. But the 11-point spread is close enough to look at this 5-point window, and I love the +400 odds we’re getting.
I’m dropping to a half-unit here due to the aforementioned specificity, but I like this bet as a nice upside play.
Buccaneers vs 49ers Same Game Parlay
Buccaneers vs 49ers SGP (+162)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 units
- 49ers (-575)
- Over 41.5 (-108)
- 49ers Over 27.5 Points (+110)
While there are some same game parlays for this one with higher rewards, I just don’t like a lot of the risks associated with them - most of which include putting stock in the Buccaneers keeping pace.
And with that, I’m going to double-down on some of the picks I have above while also taking the layup of the 49ers winning outright. Combining these three picks doesn’t get you a massive reward, but the +162 odds are good enough that we’re rewarding the combination of what I view as some relatively safe plays.
