Defending champion Argentina will take on European powerhouse Spain in the 2026 World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19, with kickoff at MetLife Stadium scheduled for 3 p.m. ET.
Lionel Messi helped Argentina overcome another late deficit with a pair of assists in a 2-1 semifinal victory over England on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Spain outclassed France 2-0 on Tuesday, with Mikel Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro scoring goals on either side of halftime.
Can Argentina become the first team to win back-to-back World Cup titles since Brazil (1958 and 1962)? Or will Spain collect its second title following its success in 2010?
To prepare for Sunday’s World Cup Final, let’s examine the latest odds and make some Spain vs Argentina predictions.
Spain vs Argentina Odds
All soccer odds used for these Spain vs Argentina predictions are current as of Friday, July 17, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- To Win the Cup: Spain (-150) / Argentina (+130)
- Moneyline (90 Mins): Spain (+125) / Draw (+200) / Argentina (+255)
- Spread (90 Mins): Spain -0.5 (+120) / Argentina +0.5 (-150)
- Over/Under (90 Mins): Over 2.5 Goals (+120) / Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
Spain vs Argentina Predictions
Score Prediction: Spain 2, Argentina 0
The headlines heading into the 2026 World Cup Final will mostly be about Argentina star Lionel Messi and Spain teenage sensation Lamine Yamal.
The master-versus-pupil storyline was always going to garner attention, given their links as generational left-footed talents who came through Barcelona’s La Masia academy, but it has only been amplified by the viral photoshoot in which Messi bathed and held Yamal as a baby.
While Messi has continued to make magic happen for Argentina throughout this tournament, scoring eight goals and adding four assists, Yamal (one goal, zero assists) has been much less productive.
Instead, the story for Spain has been its all-around depth and an immaculate defense, which has surrendered just one goal in seven matches.
On Tuesday, Luis de la Fuente’s squad neutralized a France attack featuring Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembélé, and Bradley Barcola, limiting Les Bleus to three shots on goal and 0.31 expected goals.
If Spain can replicate that performance against an Argentina team that has scored a tournament-high 19 goals, La Furia Roja will return home with the World Cup trophy.
Spain vs Argentina Best Bets
Spain: Wins World Cup (-150) vs Argentina
While I’m weary of picking against the magic of Lionel Messi and this Argentina side, my eyes and head tell me that Spain is the more complete team.
Luis de la Fuente’s squad enters the World Cup Final on the back of a 37-game unbeaten run, which spans more than two years and includes a Euro 2024 title.
Argentina has relied on late goals and comebacks in the knockout rounds, having trailed in the final 10 minutes of regulation against England and Egypt.
While Messi always seems to find a way, I struggle to see how Argentina could mount a similar comeback against a Spain squad that rarely concedes scoring opportunities, let alone goals.
With that in mind, I’m backing Spain to lift the trophy at -150 odds as my soccer bet of the day.
Spain vs Argentina: Under 2.5 Goals (-150)
The previous two World Cup Finals have been high-scoring: France defeated Croatia 4-2 in 2018, and Argentina and France played to a 3-3 tie over 120 minutes four years ago before Messi and Co. won on penalties.
However, those results were relative outliers to what we’ve seen recently in this high-pressure match. Six of the seven World Cup Finals between 1990 and 2014 saw two or fewer goals scored in regulation, including Spain’s 1-0 extra-time victory over the Netherlands in 2010.
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Given the strength of Spain’s defense and its possession-based style of play, I expect a low-scoring contest on Sunday, especially since this game will be played outdoors in potentially less-than-ideal conditions due to the Canadian wildfires.
