ByScott Engel

Jan 26, 2024

Patrick Mahomes Player Prop Bets: Are We Really On Unders???

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Patrick Mahomes continued to add to his ever-growing legacy by earning his 13th career playoff win in 16 games in the AFC Divisional Round. But the NFL’s premier QB and his Chiefs are not favored to knock off a Baltimore Ravens team that has routinely destroyed top opponents this season.

Baltimore led the NFL in scoring defense during the regular season at 16.5 points per game and did not allow an offensive TD in the Divisional Round. As an unusual change of pace when wagering on Mahome player props, I will be leaning to the Unders.

All Conference Championship odds used in these props are current as of publication.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Pick of the Day

Patrick Mahomes Completions Prop

Patrick Mahomes: Under 24.5 Completions

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Ravens have dominated other playoff teams this season. They routed Houston, Miami and the 49ers, and also walloped the Lions by 32 points. The Ravens will be well prepared to hold down Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Baltimore was a top 5 team in average time of possession during the regular season, which means it chews up a lot of clock on offense and limits opposing scoring opportunities on defense.

Baltimore has allowed 25 or fewer completions to opposing quarterbacks in five of its last six games. Mahomes has not completed more than 23 passes in his last three games overall and he’s not facing the type of opponent that will allow him to rack up completions when playing from behind.

In six losses this season, Mahomes completed 25 or fewer passes five times, and I am expecting a rare Chiefs AFC playoff defeat this week.

The Baltimore defense led the NFL in opposing passer rating (74.6) during the regular season. Baltimore won’t allow Mahomes to convert many key plays to the thinnest WR crew of his career so far.

Patrick Mahomes Touchdown Prop

Patrick Mahomes: Under 1.5 TD Passes

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Mahomes passed for two TDs against an injury-weakened defense in the Divisional Round win at Buffalo, but he had not registered more than one TD pass in five of his six previous games.

The Kansas City superstar totaled 27 TD passes during the regular season after not finishing with less than 37 in any of the previous three campaigns and now gets a much more daunting draw at Baltimore.

The Ravens allowed an NFL-low 16 TD passes to QBs during the regular season and none in the Divisional Round vs. Houston. Baltimore has allowed just five TD passes in its last five games, including the playoffs, and has allowed more than one TD pass in a game only twice in its last seven.

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Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously he was at and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and a 13-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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