The Kansas City Chiefs are facing what amounts to a must-win game in Week 14, which means they’ll likely need Patrick Mahomes to play the role of superhero.
Even more than usual, the Chiefs will be leaning on Mahomes against the Texans, who have the best defense in the NFL.
Given this strength vs strength matchup, we thought it would be fascinating to explore some of the potential Patrick Mahomes props in Week 14 and share which ones we favor as the best NFL player prop bets today.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets
All NFL odds used for these Patrick Mahomes prop bets are current as of Thursday, Dec. 4, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (-120)
This number is right on the cusp of where Mahomes has been in recent weeks, throwing exactly 34 passes in three of his last five games.
Of course, in those other two games during that stretch, Mahomes threw at least 45 passes, which is why we’re leaning toward the over for this bet.
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Since the Texans have a tough run defense and the Chiefs need to win this game, they will have no problem letting Mahomes throw more than usual, which should result in 40+ passes on Sunday night.
Back the Over as your NFL pick of the day.
Patrick Mahomes: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)
Even with a high volume of passes, Mahomes isn’t necessarily going to throw multiple touchdown passes in this game.
Despite having four last week against a lackluster Dallas defense, Mahomes had just one passing touchdown total in his three previous games against the Bills, Broncos, and Colts.
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Equally important, the Texans have allowed the second-fewest passing touchdowns in the league.
Only four quarterbacks have thrown multiple touchdown passes against the Houston defense this season, so the odds are stacked against Mahomes.
Patrick Mahomes: Over 0.5 Interceptions (-102)
Another area of strength for the Houston defense is picking off quarterbacks. The Texans have 12 interceptions this season, which ranks fourth in the league.
Conversely, Mahomes has thrown at least one interception in four of his last five games.
Mahomes knows he’ll have to be aggressive and take some chances in what is likely to be a close game, and that could easily lead to him throwing an interception against the Texans.
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