It’s no secret that survivor pools are tough.
In the first seven weeks of the season, we were rolling. Then Week 8 came around and we lost the Survivor Pool with the New York Jets defeating the Cincinnati Bengals. Since Week 8, the “best" selection has lost three straight weeks.
This is why they call it a survivor pool. It’s extremely hard to survive no matter how heavy favorites are on a given week. If you’re still surviving, kudos to you. I’m still going to go through this week’s slate using teams that I haven’t used previously. Let’s try to get back on track.
Clearly, if you’ve tailed me recently, you’re out too. But if this is your first time, I’m going to try to give you the best possible pick for this week and explain my reasoning behind it.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Grid Week 11
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck of “The Prediction Tracker," uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox, and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. NFL gameday odds are current as of Wednesday, November 17, at 10:00 a.m. ET.
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2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 11
Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans are one of the best teams in the league, yet the hype has been quiet. The Titans are currently 8-2 on the year and they’ve been without A.J. Brown, Julio Jones, and Derrick Henry for multiple games this year and have still produced.
The offense now gets to go up against a Houston Texans defense that has looked terrible all season. Houston is giving up over 400 yards per game on the defensive end and in the NFL, that’s just not going to cut it. The Titans are scoring 27.8 points per game and have allowed 23.2 points per game this year.
- Read our full Texans vs Titans predictions and best bets.
Meanwhile, the Texans have scored a league-low 14.2 points per game and already traded away some key pieces of their offense this season. Houston is basically conceding another year. The Titans have won their last five games while the Texans have lost each of their last five.
There’s really no better spot in the league this week than the Titans.
Betting Pick: Titans -10 (-110) at Caesars
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons
I’m not the biggest fan of taking teams on the road, but I, like most of the public, see the potential in this Patriots team. Not only does quarterback Mac Jones continue to progress, but also, the run game and defense have done their part recently.
On Thursday Night Football, weird stuff happens, but I tend to believe that Mac Jones and the Patriots will showcase what they’ve been doing on a national stage. The Patriots have won four straight games and have won three of those four by large margins.
- Read our full Patriots vs Falcons predictions and best bets.
On the other hand, the Falcons have lost two of their last three and got crushed by the Cowboys 43-3 in Dallas last week. There’s no coming back from that loss and the Prediction Tracker agrees.
Betting Pick: Patriots -7 (+100) at Caesars
Patriots rookie running back Rhamondre Stevenson proved he can carry the load with Damien Harris out in Week 10. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Washington Football Team vs Carolina Panthers
I know many are going to get excited with Cam Newton under center for the Panthers in this game. It’s a great story and I’m extremely excited to see what he can do back in baby blue.
However, with Washington knocking off Tampa Bay last week, it’s going to be extremely hard to back Carolina, even at home in this game.
Washington won’t have Chase Young and that’s going to hurt, but the defense at least looks like the defense that we all expected to see at the start of the season. Plus, Washington has done well with game planning and clock management of late.
Washington could carry last week’s momentum into this game. I’d watch out!
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Baltimore Ravens vs Chicago Bears
It’s already Week 11, so time is starting to run out. There are some teams like the Jets, Giants, Jaguars, and so on that you’re not going to take. But teams like the Baltimore Ravens, who are still in play, are potential pool-clinchers.
I’d just wait until the Ravens get back on track. They should be able to beat up on Chicago, but time and time again we are getting lackluster performances from this group.
However, while the Ravens are capable of losing to anyone, they’re also capable of beating anyone. To have them still to use this late in the season will be huge. Wait it out!
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Detroit Lions vs Cleveland Browns
The Lions didn’t lose last week! Instead, they tied the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The Lions could ride some momentum into this game against the Browns.
Cleveland is just 5-5 on the season and have underperformed throughout the season. Last week’s latest loss to the Patriots, 45-7 was a disaster. I wouldn’t be betting on the Browns in any capacity right now, not even against the Lions.
- Read our full Browns vs Lions predictions and best bets.
The Lions have come close a couple times to getting a win. Honestly, Detroit could have two or three wins if a few late-game field-goal attempts had gone their way. The Lions aren’t nearly as bad as they seem.
Stay far away from Cleveland right now.
Thanks for reading our Week 11 Survivor Pool Picks! For more NFL betting tips and picks, read our NFL Week 11 Best Bets and NFL Week 11 Parlays.
