NFL Week 11 Prop Bets | Best NFL Prop Predictions & Picks Today

Last Updated: Nov 17, 2021

It felt like another 5-3 week in the making, but Matthew Stafford and the suddenly mortal Rams had other plans.

Our prop betting hot streak hit a temporary plateau in Week 11, finishing at an uneventful 4-4. We were all over the sluggish New Orleans-Tennessee outcome, missed the mark with the Vikings and the Chargers and split outcomes in Eagles-Broncos and Rams-49ers.

It has still been more than a month since we’ve had a losing week. I’ll gladly take that. But Week 12 offers plenty of possibilities to get back on the winning side.

You better believe I have opinions about the Kansas City Chiefs’ tussle with the Dallas Cowboys. And on the topic of points (spoiler alert), I’m also diving head first into Bengals-Raiders.

And that’s not all.

As we move closer to Thanksgiving, here are some winners for Week 11 with an emphasis on points, touchdowns and a bit of madness.

NFL Week 11 Best Prop Bets

Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders

The last two Sundays have not been kind to either team. After strong starts to the regular season, the Bengals and Raiders have both come undone in unique ways.

For Las Vegas, the issue has been offense. Against the Giants and the Chiefs, the Raiders totaled just 30 points. Derek Carr’s three interceptions haven’t helped, although there is plenty of blame to go around on the offensive side.

The Bengals, meanwhile, followed up a loss to the Jets (yuck) with a blowout loss against the Browns. Given Cleveland’s brutal follow-up performance this past weekend, the loss looks even worse two weeks later.

After watching Patrick Mahomes carve up the Raiders’ secondary on Sunday night, however, Joe Burrow must be licking his chops. Given the state of the Raiders’ secondary, this one could feature fireworks.

Over 9.5 First Quarter Points (-115) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Our points and touchdowns-centric theme starts here. I think Burrow and Joe Mixon do the heavy lifting, although Carr gets in as well. No bad interceptions; that is key.

Cincinnati Bengals Over 24.5 Points (-120) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

I still really like this offense, and Cincinnati will get Ja’Marr Chase back into the mix greatly again. Bengals hit the 30-point mark (at least).

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Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs

This is football at its absolute best. There is no other way to describe it.

And given the way both teams played last week, it might be one of the most compelling games we see all year.

Dallas QB Dak Prescott looked superb against Atlanta a week removed from a poor showing against Denver. His favorite target, CeeDee Lamb, also looked largely unstoppable. If you’re a Cowboys fan, this is the kind of result you look for.

On the topic of positive results, Patrick Mahomes looked like himself against the Raiders. Who knew that getting Travis Kelce — the best tight end in football — more involved would breed positive results?

The question now is pretty simple: Can KC validate this result with another? And can it do so against a rapidly improving Dallas defense?

The answer is, well, maybe.

Under 28 First Half Points (-110) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

There are too many great offensive players on the field for there not to be points, but I actually love the Cowboys’ defense and like what I saw from KC last week as well.

Dallas Cowboys First to Score (+110) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Coin flip Gods, help us. Even if Kansas City starts with the ball, Dallas has the defense to get stops and the offense to get things started first.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas offense looked unstoppable in the Cowboys’ win over the Atlanta Falcons, scoring 43 points through the first three quarters. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles

For at least one week, the Eagles looked lively.

Jalen Hurts showcased just how much ability he has. Rookie wideout DeVonta Smith looked like a future star. And the defense played superb.

But it came against Denver, which has had its own issues this year. Still, the offensive performance is noteworthy. And the question now is whether this kind of result can translate into more.

New Orleans experienced the opposite emotions last week. The Saints struggled early against the Titans before generating a late rally. That rally ultimately came undone with a failed two-point conversion at the end.

QB Trevor Siemian, however, played well. For as much conversation as that position has generated since Jameis Winston was injured, Siemian has quieted it down. A road game against a (potentially) surging team should tell us plenty about where he and his team are right now.

As the Saints try to stay above .500, this is a big one. And I believe they respond.

New Orleans Saints Over 21.5 Total Points (-110) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Give the Titans credit. The defense played a fabulous game. While the Eagles’ defense played strong last week, New Orleans finds success.

New Orleans Saints First to 10 Points (+100) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

This is a game that Saints can absolutely win, and I don’t believe they will have to come from behind like last week. A much better start cashes this one.

Best NFL Prop Bets Today

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

So, it’s not the most alluring prime time game. I get that.

Yes, we get Tom Brady vs the New York Giants, a team that has tormented him in the postseason. It’s pretty much the only team that has tormented Brady, and there is some drama to that.

But with a spread north of double digits, the likelihood of this being tight seems low.

Or, perhaps not. Many said similar things about the Bucs last week, and Brady delivered one of his worst performances since joining the team. WFT QB Taylor Heinicke carved up Tampa’s defense at times, which is maybe even more concerning.

It certainly bodes well for the Giants, you would think. New York is coming off a bye that followed a nice win against the Raiders. The bye also came at the perfect time with many pieces of the offense, headlined hopefully by running back Saquon Barkley, getting healthy.

While it’s still somewhat unknown what we get from one of the most explosive backs in the sport — at least pre-injury — his mere presence changes up the game plan drastically.

Over 5.5 Touchdowns (-120) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

Brady will play better, the Bucs will score and the Giants do their part. In my eyes, we need two (maybe three) NY touchdowns for this to cash. That’s incredibly reasonable.

Over 10 First Quarter Points (+105) at Betway

Wager: 1 Unit

We have seen, outside of last week, Tampa Bay come out of the gates strong and fast. Playing at home should certainly help. The key here will likely be getting the Giants to match.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 11 Prop Bets. For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 11 Best Bets.


Adam Kramer

Adam Kramer is an NFL, college football, and gambling analyst for The Game Day. While college football has long been his calling, he’s also covered sports such as boxing, horse racing, and baseball at The Game Day and in other places. He’s also written for Bleacher Report, VSiN, and various other outlets over the past decade-plus.

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