Bengals vs Raiders Predictions Week 11 | NFL Pick of the Day
Two weeks ago, both Cincinnati and Las Vegas led their respective divisions and were considered AFC contenders.
Since then, both have lost two straight in disappointing performances. The Raiders laid an egg against Kansas City on Sunday Night Football, while the Bengals have lost to the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets.
However, the Bengals are coming off a bye, so maybe Joe Burrow and company will bounce back.
I’m skeptical, though, that the Raiders will be able to do the same.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Friday, November 19.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Before continuing to read our Bengals vs Raiders betting tips, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and matching your first bet up to $1,001 (win or lose) for new signups using our promo code GAMEDAY.
Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Bengals vs Raiders tipster picks.
Bengals vs Raiders Prediction
By most metrics, these teams are very equal.
- The Raiders rank 23rd in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, while the Bengals rank 25th.
- The Bengals rank 19th in EPA per play, while the Raiders rank 20th.
- The Bengals rank 10th in EPA per play allowed, while the Raiders rank 18th
- The Bengals rank 9th in PFF’s team grades, while the Raiders rank 16th
Plus, both teams are 5-4 straight up (SU) and 4-5 against the spread (ATS).
As such, the Bengals are laying only one point at the time of this writing. This game will be a very close-scoring battle.
Prediction: Bengals 28, Raiders 27
Bengals vs Raiders Best Bets
Best Bet: Bengals Moneyline (-115) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 Units
I trust the Bengals more than I trust the Raiders, making this our NFL bet of the day.
There are a few reasons, but chief among them is Cincinnati’s bye week. The Bengals had two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a brutal loss. The team is hungry, the coaches will be prepared, and Cincinnati is in desperate need of a win.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are coming off a late-night game against the Chiefs and are starting to nosedive. Every year, the Raiders start hot and finish around .500, and this loss will make them exactly 5-5.
The Bengals also feature a stronger defense, and Derek Carr has posted his two worse PFF grades of the year over the past two weeks (43.9 vs. NYG, 64.0 vs. KC).
I’ll ride with Burrow and the Bengals ML at anything better than -120.
Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline (CIN @ LV, NFL Week 11)
CIN @ LV | 11/21, 4:05 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $37
Best Bet: Over 50.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 0.5 units
This total seems about right, but I believe there’s a bit of value on the over.
Both defenses are relatively average — although the Bengals’ defense is above-average — but both have a litany of weaknesses that can be exploited.
For Las Vegas, the Raiders are 31st in defensive Red Zone efficiency, 20th in defensive third-down conversion rate, and 25th in rushing yards allowed. Teams can have success on early-downs with a solid rush attack (i.e., Joe Mixon), but the Raiders crumble in crunch-time situations.
For Cincinnati, the Bengals are 17th in defensive third-down conversion rate, 22nd in passing yards allowed, 23rd in turnovers created, and 22nd in PFF’s tackling grades. Tackling poorly and allowing passing yards will allow the Raiders to move the ball.
Plus, both teams have quarterbacks that can take advantage of opposing weaknesses. While they’ve looked bad at times, Burrow and Carr are still above-average in terms of EPA per play, and both are completing close to 70% of their passes at eight yards per attempt.
I’ll be making a small play on the over.
Total Points Over 50.5 (CIN @ LV, NFL Week 11)
CIN @ LV | 11/21, 4:05 PM ET
Bet $20, Payout $38