ByScott Engel

Feb 6, 2024

Best QB Props For Super Bowl 58: A Mahomes TD Pass At +110

Patrick Mahomes will be aiming to win his third Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl 58 as he continues to build a body of work that is already becoming legendary at age 26.

Brock Purdy will attempt to exceed expectations yet again and win a Super Bowl title in his second NFL season.

I feature some of the more unique props for the QBs in Super Bowl 58, with one recommended passing prop for each and a rushing wager, too.

All Super Bowl 58 odds used in these props are current as of Feb. 6.

Best QB Prop Bets For Super Bowl 58

Brock Purdy Longest Completion: Over 37.5 Yards

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Kansas City pass defense ranked fourth in the NFL during the regular season and allowed just 219 passing yards per game to the three QBs they faced in the AFC playoffs.

But they have shown some vulnerability to the deep ball and I expect Purdy to take a few select downfield shots that might succeed.

Tyreek Hill caught a 53-yard pass, and Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor had long receptions of 54 and 39 yards vs Kansas City, respectively, in the AFC playoffs.

Purdy has long completions of 38-plus yards in nine of his last 11 games, including the postseason.

Patrick Mahomes To Throw A 2nd Quarter TD

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The second quarter has very often been a key period for Mahomes in terms of tossing TD passes.

While just one of his four TD passes in the postseason have come in the second quarter so far in this year’s playoffs, the regular season splits point to a larger trend.

During the 2023 regular season, 12 of his 27 TD passes were in the second quarter, twice as many as the next best quarter for his TDs (third quarter, six).

In his career, Mahomes has 426 TD passes in the second quarter, with the next best quarter being the third, at 352 TD passes. .

Patrick Mahomes: Under 26.5 Rushing Yards

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1.5 Units

In seven of his past nine games, Mahomes has not rushed for more than 26 yards. During the regular season, Mahomes averaged 24.2 rushing yards per game, and he has rushed for less than 20 yards in two of three AFC playoff games.

The 49ers limited top rushing QBs such as Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray to under 50 rushing yards during the regular season, and Jalen Hurts finished with 20.

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Scott Engel

Scott Engel is a Senior Sports Writer at The Game Day. Previously he was at and The Athletic. His work is also featured at RotoBaller and on Scott is a host on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. He is an inaugural member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Hall of Fame. Scott is a four-time FSWA award winner and a 13-time finalist. He was an Associate Editor and featured writer at and his career began at CBS SportsLine, where he was a Senior Writer and Managing Editor. Scott was the Managing Director at RotoExperts.

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