BySam Wagman

Jan 20, 2024

Best Bills vs. Chiefs Prop Bets To Make Today

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If you’re an NFL fan, you surely remember the game. You especially remember it you enjoy NFL betting.

It was the 2021-22 NFL playoffs. The Buffalo Bills had just marched down the field. Gabe Davis just hauled in his fourth touchdown of the game from Josh Allen to put the Bills of the Kansas City Chiefs ahead 36-33 with 13 seconds remaining.

The Chiefs’ fans in attendance at Arrowhead Stadium were absolutely stunned.

Patrick Mahomes and his offense had played an absolutely stellar game to that point. Yet, they were about to lose in the Divisional Round playoffs and miss out on their chance to win a second Super Bowl in three seasons.

However, this was Mahomes’ house, and he wasn’t going to go down without a fight. The Chiefs would drive 44 yards in two plays and Harrison Butker would dome a 49-yard field goal to send the game to overtime, where Mahomes hit Travis Kelce for a walk-off touchdown.

The recent six-game history between these two teams is muddy. The Chiefs have owned the Bills in the playoffs, winning both matchups, but the Bills have won each of the other four matchups since Mahomes came to Kansas City.

This is going to be one of the heaviest bet NFL games of the season. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of our best Bills vs. Chiefs NFL Divisional Round prop bets.

NFL odds used in these props are current as of Jan. 19.

Best Bills vs. Chiefs Player Prop Bets

Patrick Mahomes:

FanDuel Sportsbook • 1 Unit

It’s a cool stat that quarterbacks tend to rush more in the playoffs, which comes into play anytime that we’re looking for a way to bet creatively on Mahomes.

Why is this? It mostly stems from the fact that in the playoffs, the stakes are obviously higher, so quarterbacks are more willing to rely on themselves to get the ball across that yellow first-down line.

Let’s take a look at some stats here. Mahomes has rushed for more postseason yardage than any quarterback over the past four seasons, a stat which shouldn’t surprise you given that he has the most games played during that span.

However, he’s also the highest-graded OVERALL rusher in three of those seasons, where his sample size doesn’t come into play.

I think he’ll be moving plenty in this game against Buffalo. In that back-and-forth barnburner back in 2022, Mahomes had seven carries for 69 yards, and he’s been active on the ground this season as well, going over 26 rush yards in nine of 16 games.

The Bills have given up nearly 20 rush yards per game to quarterbacks, which should push Mahomes into action.

Mecole Hardman: Longest Reception

BetMGM Sportsbook • 1 Unit

Hardman has struggled mightily lately, and I don’t expect that to change in this matchup vs the Bills.

He has struggled with drops and receiving miscues in nearly every contest he’s participated in, including two extremely poor targets in last week’s Wild Card game vs the Dolphins.

On the first drive of the game, Hardman stopped short on his route and the ball bounced next to him. Later in the game, Hardman completely stopped his route. He would have had a walk-in touchdown if he kept moving.

The Bills allow the fewest deep shot attempts (20+ yards) per game this season among all NFL teams. Despite the defensive injuries they’ve suffered recently, I still expect them to keep players in front of them at all times.

Best Bills vs. Chiefs Team Props

Any Team to Score

DraftKings Sportsbook • 1 Unit

We’ve seen the history between these two teams. In three of the past fives games, including both playoff matchups, one or both of these teams have scored 30+ points.

Both Mahomes and Allen are capable of slinging the ball an absolute ton back and forth, and both running games are extremely capable as well.

We’ve seen some better defensive performances this season out of both units this year, but I expect that with the playoff atmosphere, both teams should be raring to go in this one.

I’m not too worried about the projected snow weather either, as both teams are plenty used to the cold and will be plenty warmed up.

Chiefs Moneyline

bet365 Sportsbook • 1 Unit

This is a very simple game prop. The Chiefs just feel like the better team to me, a team that turns much hotter in the playoffs, akin to a LeBron James-led team in the NBA.

We have a Bills squad that has been fighting to make the playoffs since November, when they were 6-6.

Now, Buffalo has suffered multiple defensive injuries that could hamstring the Bills in this game, and on the other side lies a Chiefs team that really has just coasted along since then.

Sure, they suffered a string of losses where Mahomes didn’t look as good as he could, but the Chiefs - and Mahomes - always perform much better in the playoffs.

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Sam Wagman

Sam is the Sports Content Editor for The Game Day. He has been in the sports media industry for 4 years, with stints at VegasInsider, Footballguys, and Fantasy Points. Sam specializes in fantasy football content creation and strategy as well as sports betting content strategy with an NFL and PGA focus. Originally from Philadelphia, he enjoys all Philly sports despite now living in Florida. He enjoys playing tennis, pickleball, and golf -- while constantly struggling to break 80 on the course.

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