Texans vs Bills Predictions Week 4 – NFL Pick of the Day

Last Updated: Oct 1, 2021

The Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans are trending in opposite directions heading into Week 4. Buffalo looks like one of the best teams in the AFC coming off a pair of monster wins over the Miami Dolphins and Washington Football Team, while Houston has lost their last two games and is scuffling without Tyrod Taylor (hamstring).

Josh Allen‘s Bills will look to keep rolling against the Texans at home in Week 4 and remain atop the AFC East. Meanwhile, rookie quarterback Davis Mills will shoot for his first NFL career win as Houston attempts to even its record at 2-2. Let’s dive in with our NFL Week 4 Texans vs Bills predictions and betting tips in our NFL pick of the day series.

Please note that all Texans vs Bills odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 1.

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before you make your Texans-Bills bets, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and a fantastic $5,000 risk-free welcome bonus to new signups using our promo code .

Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Week 4 tipster picks.

Texans vs Bills Prediction

The Texans have seen their offense sputter since losing Taylor in Week 2, managing just 16 points over the last 6+ quarters. They haven’t been able to gather much momentum with Mills under center, which has taxed their defense as well. They’ll need to step up offensively if they want to keep pace with the high-flying Bills.

Buffalo, on the other hand, has roared back after being upset by the Pittsburgh Steelers at home in Week 1. They obliterated Miami in a 35-0 shutout in Week 2 and dismantled Washington’s defense in a 43-21 victory in Week 3. The Bills have dominated on both sides of the ball, ranking fourth in most points scored and fewest points allowed.

Buffalo should enjoy another commanding victory in Week 4 against Houston, who won’t be able to keep up on offense and don’t have an answer for Allen on defense. Allen just shredded the Football Team for five touchdowns and appears poised for another big performance here.

Look for the Bills to build up an early lead and run away with this one. The Texans will struggle to score against Buffalo’s formidable defense, resulting in a lopsided win for the Bills.

Prediction: Bills 34, Texans 10

Houston Texans Defense

The Houston Texans’ defense will try to slow down the Buffalo Bills’ high-octane offense in Week 4. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Texans vs Bills Best Bets

Best Bet: Under 47 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM

Buffalo should be able to top 30 points for the third consecutive game, but Houston managed just nine points against the Carolina Panthers last week and may struggle to reach double digits against the Bills’ stout defense. Buffalo will likely take its foot off the gas late in the game as well, as they did by replacing Allen with Mitch Trubisky in each of the last two weeks.

The Bills’ offense will hold up their end of the bargain, but I don’t see the Texans doing enough here to hit the Over.

Best Bet: Bills -17 (-110) at Caesars

Buffalo is playing exceptionally well on both sides of the ball, while Houston is struggling on both offense and defense. With the Bills having home-field advantage, this game has all the makings of a blowout. Buffalo beat Miami and Washington by a combined 57 points, both of which are much stronger teams (especially defensively) than Houston.

The Bills have enough weapons to cover the spread and win this game by three touchdowns or more, making this a great choice for our NFL bet of the day.

Best Bet: Bills Moneyline (-1600) at BetMGM

No, that moneyline isn’t a misprint. The Bills are Super Bowl contenders while the Texans were expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL. This is one of the most lopsided matchups we’ll see all season, which is reflected in our NFL gameday odds.

It’s hard to envision Houston playing a competitive game in Buffalo with a rookie quarterback, let alone winning it. Wagering on the Bills to win is one of the easiest betting decisions you’ll make all year.

Texans vs Bills Same Game Parlay Pick

  • Under 47.5 Total Points (-115) at BetMGM
  • Bills -16.5 (-125) at BetMGM

Here is an easy Texans vs Bills parlay to try, as Buffalo should be able to cover the spread while Houston will have difficulty scoring. Accordingly, this is a nice plus bet that can make a decent profit for small, modest bettors. This one-game parlay currently carries +300 odds.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 4 Texans vs Bills Predictions & Best Bets! For more NFL Week 4 betting tips, check out our NFL Week 4 Best Bets and NFL Week 4 Parlay Picks.


Chris Wassel

Chris Wassel is an NHL Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day. He is also a frequent guest of the NHL Fantasy On Ice podcast along with hosting his own Fantasy Hockey X podcast. Chris is a jack of all trades writer who covers the NFL, NCAA Football, Auto Racing, and so much more. He is a fantasy sports veteran of nearly three decades in all.

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