Two storied franchises will face off in Week 4 with the Packers hosting the Steelers. Ironically, they both have star quarterbacks who have never played for another team, but who both could be on their way out the door after 2021.
Aaron Rodgers might want to leave the Packers to play for another team, while Ben Roethlisberger might be forced out because of poor play. Let’s dig into this matchup and highlight some wagers to consider.
Please note that all Steelers vs Packers odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 1.
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Steelers vs Packers Prediction
The season couldn’t have started out worse for the Packers, who were smoked by the Saints in Week 1. Not only did their defense give up 38 points, but they only scored three points on offense with Rodgers struggling. He threw for just 133 yards while getting picked off twice.
The good news for the Packers is that they bounced back quickly in Week 2, scoring 35 points against the Lions. They then scored 30 points on their way to defeating the 49ers on Sunday night. Across those two games, Rodgers threw six touchdown passes and no interceptions.
While Rodgers looks to have plenty left in the tank, Roethlisberger might be cooked. He has just three touchdown passes to go along with three interceptions through three games, leading what has looked like an anemic Steelers’ offense.
Another concern for the Steelers is that their offensive line appears to be in shambles. They haven’t been able to create much running room for Najee Harris and Roethlisberger has been sacked eight times.
The Steelers do have a good defense, so even with Rodgers playing better, they could keep this game close. The question is, can Roethlisberger help lead them to enough points? I’m not sure that he can.
Prediction: Packers 24, Steelers 17
Steelers vs Packers Best Bets
Packers Team Total Under 26.5 points (-115) at DraftKings
It’s no surprise that Green Bay opened as a near-touchdown favorite at most major sportsbooks per our NFL gameday odds, but I find more value in this line as Rodgers and the Packers could have trouble moving the ball up and down the field against Pittsburgh.
The Steelers put forth an impressive defensive performance on the road in Week 1, holding the Bills to 16 points. They followed that up by allowing 26 points to the Raiders in Week 2 and 24 points to the Bengals last week, so they haven’t let their opponent go over on this number all season.
A big boost could be provided to the Steelers defense if T.J. Watt is able to return from a groin injury. He was a full participant in practice Thursday, so unless he suffers a setback, it appears he’ll be ready to retake the field.
Najee Harris Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (-108) at BetRivers
With their offensive line being a bit of a mess, the Steelers haven’t opened up many holes for Harris. He hasn’t topped 45 rushing yards in a game yet and he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown, either.
While his yardage totals haven’t been great, Harris has received at least 14 carries in two of Pittsburgh’s three games. He has very little competition behind him for carries, so taking a chance on the over at these odds could be worth it.
Aaron Jones to Score a Touchdown (-129) at BetRivers
Jones has been no stranger to finding the end zone in the early going, tallying two rushing touchdowns and three receiving scores in three games. He was productive in that area last season, as well, with 11 total touchdowns over 14 games.
While the Packers might not explode offensively in this contest, when they do get in close, expect them to turn to Jones. He already has 13 carries and five targets inside the red zone so far this season.
Steelers vs Packers Same Game Parlay Picks
Same Game Parlay Odds: +145
- Packers Moneyline (-260) at DraftKings
- Packers Team Total Under 30.5 Points (-225) at DraftKings
I’ll buy a few points on the under for the Packers just to be safe since we still get plus odds with this parlay. Green Bay has been a bit inconsistent, so taking the moneyline instead of the spread also builds us some cushion.