Three weeks of the 2021 NFL season are now behind us, giving us a glimpse of what we may see from certain teams. Both the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins have gotten off to disappointing starts, battling injuries and going just 1-5 between them.
Despite their lackluster records, both clubs have shown signs of life at times, proving that they could be better than their records indicate. In what should be a close game between a pair of banged-up teams, let’s dive into my Colts vs Dolphins predictions and best bets in our NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all odds are current as of 3 PM EST on Friday, October 1.
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Colts vs Dolphins Prediction
To say that the Colts and Dolphins are hurting at the quarterback position would be an understatement. Carson Wentz, who is in his first season with Indianapolis, is already playing on two sprained ankles and looked significantly hampered against a porous Tennessee Titans defense in Week 3. Given his injury history, that doesn’t bode well for his performance this year.
At least Wentz is able to take the field. The same cannot be said of Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa, who was placed on the injured reserve after suffering a rib injury during Week 2. Jacoby Brissett will fill in for Tua in the meantime, including this Week 4 matchup against his former team.
Miami does have a better defense on paper than Indianapolis, but neither unit qualifies as intimidating. Both teams feature subpar run defenses, which favors Indianapolis more than Miami with Jonathan Taylor leading the way for the Colts.
It’s going to be a close, low-scoring game given the various injuries on both sides. But with Miami playing at home — and with a quarterback that has two healthy ankles — I’ll give the edge to the Dolphins in Week 4.
Prediction: Miami Dolphins 21, Indianapolis Colts 17
Colts vs Dolphins Best Bets
Best Bet: Dolphins -2 (-110) at BetMGM
Even though Brissett didn’t have an impressive performance in Week 3 against the Las Vegas Raiders, he showed that he can be a capable game manager and keep the Dolphins afloat until Tagovailoa returns. Brissett didn’t make any turnovers against Las Vegas and was able to force overtime on the road.
I do believe that Miami’s defense is better than they have looked thus far, especially if Brian Flores can come up with a game plan to contain the Colts’ offense. Flores loves to blitz the opposing quarterback, and when that quarterback (Wentz) is limited in his mobility, it could lead to errant passes or turnovers.
In a close game like this, one turnover can change the outcome. Wentz is more likely to turn the ball over than Brissett, which is why I’m betting on Miami to win the game at -2 points or up to -2.5. The line may change throughout the week, however, so be sure to keep an eye on our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Under 42.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
I absolutely hate playing the under in any sport, but this may be an ugly low-scoring game between the Colts and the Dolphins in Week 4. Both offenses have struggled in the early going, combining for just 101 points over their first six games combined this year.
Wentz and Brissett limit the offensive ceilings of their respective teams, neither of which have much in the way of elite playmakers on offense. This game will be a grind where both teams rely on runs and short passes to chew up the clock and advance downfield. You can get the over/under at 42.5 at Caesars, and I would play it all the way down to 41.5.
Colts vs Dolphins Same Game Parlay Pick
Most sportsbooks are now offering same game parlays for the NFL, allowing you to combine multiple bets from the same game. The parlay below has its odds at +310, combining both of my bets from above with the expectation that Miami will score at least 17 points:
- Miami Dolphins -1.5 (-110) at BetMGM
- Under 42.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
- Miami Dolphins Over 16.5 Points (-350) at BetMGM
I may expand my same game parlay to include Week 4 player props once they are released, so be sure to check back later this week! For more NFL Week 4 betting tips, check out our NFL Week 4 Best Bets and NFL Week 4 Parlays Picks.