Week 9 was one of the wildest weeks in NFL history with multiple double-digit favorites losing outright. We saw a number of surprising performances and results and now have to completely reevaluate which teams are good and which teams might have been a tad overrated. That is going to make betting and wagering in Week 10 all the more difficult.
To get you prepared for the week ahead, here are our best bets and picks for Week 10 of the NFL season. Please note that all odds are current as of 11:00 a.m. ET on Monday, November 8.
Marcus Mosher’s Best Bets NFL Betting Record: 31-21
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NFL Week 10 Best Bets
Atlanta Falcons vs. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys laid an egg in Week 9 against the Broncos as they were down 30-0 at one point at home. The offense just couldn’t sustain any sort of momentum and struggled all day. Now, they will take on the Falcons in Week 10, who are coming off a big win against the Saints in New Orleans.
The Cowboys are the far more talented team and they should play with more urgency after their embarrassing loss. However, this game might be a bit closer than anyone anticipated as Matt Ryan is playing extremely well. Since Week 3, he is averaging 282.2 passing yards per game while having a passer rating of 106.1.
Look for this to be a one-score game that likely comes down to the final possession.
Falcons vs. Cowboys Prediction: Cowboys 30-28
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Falcons vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Falcons +9.5 (-110) on Caesars
While we are predicting a narrow win for the Cowboys, the Falcons are the play here in Week 10. They are 9.5-point underdogs and have a former MVP at quarterback. They have the firepower on offense to keep pace with the Cowboys and might be even able to contain the rushing attack of Dallas on Sunday.
This is just way too many points for the Cowboys to give after their awful defensive performance in Week 9.
Falcons vs. Cowboys Best Bet: Over 53 (-110) on Caesars
In their Week 2 meeting last season, the Falcons and Cowboys scored a combined 79 points. Don’t expect that many points here in Week 10, but look for both offenses to have some success. It wouldn’t be a shock at all if this turned out to be a 35-31 type of game as both offenses can get hot in a hurry.
Take the Over 53 points in this game as the Cowboys offense should get back on track.
Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots
Don’t look now, but the New England Patriots are suddenly only a half-game back of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC West. They are legit contenders in the AFC as the defense continues to be dominant. But can they get a win against the Browns in Week 10?
This is one of the better games of Week 10 with big playoff implications for both teams. Look for this game to come down to the final possession or two, but for the Patriots to ultimately get the win.
Browns vs. Patriots Prediction: Patriots 24-21
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Browns vs. Patriots Best Bet: Patriots -2 (-110) on Caesars
Whenever the Patriots are less than a field goal favorite at home, they are always a good bet. New England is just 1-4 straight up at home in their last five games, but three of those games have come against the Cowboys (OT), Buccaneers, and Saints. The Browns got a nice win in Week 9, but they clearly aren’t the same caliber of the teams the Patriots faced earlier this year at Foxboro.
Bill Belichick and his defense will come up with a plan to slow down Baker Mayfield and make him feel uncomfortable in the pocket like he has done for years against average quarterbacks. If the Patriots do win, they should also be able to cover this small spread.
Browns vs. Patriots Best Bet: Over 45 (-110) on Caesars
Believe it or not, the Patriots have a top-10 scoring offense this season. They are averaging nearly 26 points per game as rookie quarterback Mac Jones is becoming more comfortable in the offense. Both teams should be able to utilize their rushing attacks and score into the 20s, allowing the Over to hit at Gillette Stadium.
It also doesn’t hurt that Nick Chubb finally looks healthy again for the Browns. He’s provided a big boost to their offense.
Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have the league’s worst rushing defense, allowing over 160 rushing yards per game this season. Meanwhile, the Vikings have one of the league’s best rushing attacks as they are averaging nearly 125 yards per game on the ground. That is a huge advantage in favor of the Vikings in Week 10.
It also doesn’t help that the Chargers have been decimated by injuries in their secondary, and now the dynamic duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will be coming to town. Expect this to be an incredibly close game, but for the Vikings to pull off the upset on the West Coast.
Vikings vs. Chargers Prediction: Vikings 27, Chargers 23
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Vikings vs. Chargers Best Bet: Vikings +2.5 (-110) on Caesars
The Vikings have now lost back-to-back games on the final possession. They are really close to being one of the better teams in the NFC, but have been unable to close out games. That’s been a problem for the Chargers this season, too, as they have already lost two games by a combined six points.
Minnesota is the better bet here as they are getting a few points and the Chargers have no real home-field advantage in Los Angeles. Look for this to be a close game, but for Dalvin Cook and the run game to take over for the Vikings.
Vikings vs. Chargers Best Bet: Under 52 (-110) on Caesars
One of the biggest reasons why the Under is a good bet in this matchup is that neither team trusts their placekicker. As we saw in Week 10, the Chargers missed another extra point and both teams avoided long field goals because of a lack of faith in their kicker. Those decisions usually lead to fewer points being scored.
Look for this to be a game in which both teams score in the 20s, but neither gets to 30 or more points. The slow pace from both offenses should help here, as well.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 10 Best Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 10 Parlays Picks.