Week 10 features two AFC foes battling for potential playoff implications this weekend. The Cleveland Browns (5-4) head to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots (5-4).
The Browns are coming off a 41-16 dominant road win against their rival, the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots are coming off a statement road win in a 24-6 beatdown of the Panthers. Both teams will be thinking head-to-head tiebreaker as they each try to help their playoff hopes just a bit more in Week 10.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at our Browns vs. Patriots predictions and best bets.
Please note that all odds and lines are current as of 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday, November 12.
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Browns vs Patriots Prediction
The New England defense is the fourth-best scoring defense with only 18.9 points per game allowed. In the last three weeks, they’ve shaved that down to 14.3 points per game.
The Patriots offense, led by rookie quarterback Mac Jones and their bevy of running backs, have shoved their way into the top 10 in scoring. Over the last three weeks they are second behind only the Indianapolis Colts in points per game.
Mac Jones’ job has been made easier than other rookie quarterbacks due to an offensive line that has kept him clean in the pocket, a Damien Harris-led running game that has accounted for half of the team’s offensive touchdowns, and receivers that have been unselfish and reliable.
This team has just one win at home, though, and it remains to be seen if they will change those fortunes. Their offense scores just as much at home as on the road, but their defense, for whatever reason, has given up a considerably larger amount of points when at home.
On the flip side, Cleveland’s scoring defense is now tied with the Rams for 10th in the league. They’ve really come into their own over their last three games, giving up just 15 points per game during the three-game stretch.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Browns are 13th in the league in points per game. What’s more remarkable is their 31.5 road points per game, good for third in the NFL.
While the receivers weren’t able to get going against the Bengals last week, Nick Chubb went over the 100-yard mark and scored twice on only 14 carries. This offense wants to run the football first to complement the passing attack.
The Patriots are 10th in passing defense DVOA while they are 17th in run defense DVOA. This will be a golden opportunity for the Browns to test the Pats run defense and try to establish the run early on.
It might surprise some but even though the Browns are coming off a total destruction of the Bengals on the road, I’m not exactly sold on them. Jack Conklin is officially on IR, Chubb will miss the game after testing positive for COVID-19, and I expect the Patriots to get to Baker Mayfield and give him fits in the pocket.
The Browns could prove they are for real with a win in Foxboro, but while everyone may have had their eyes on that blowout win the Browns put together (as well as some of the other big Week 9 upsets), they may have been sleeping on the Patriots, who have won four of their last five games and have been ascending each week.
You can’t count out Bill Belichick and I really think the Patriots are turning a corner while evolving into a team AFC teams will not want to see come playoff time.
Prediction: Patriots 28, Browns 24
Browns vs Patriots Best Bets
Best Bet: Patriots -2.5 (-112) at SugarHouse
Wager: 2 Units
After looking at our NFL gameday odds, this is certainly not a game where many have a clear underdog. Typically when a home team is favored less than three points, though, it’s a sign that they are in fact the underdogs. It’s not a shock to see this line based on how the Browns played last week.
I have the Patriots winning by four so I definitely like this line. I expect the Patriots to be able to put the pressure on Mayfield, run the football and let Mac Jones do enough to manage them to a win.
Both of these teams have very talented defenses in their own right, but I think you have to give the edge to the Patriots at home, especially because of the way they’ve played as of late. I’m making this my NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Over 45 (-113) at SugarHouse
Wager: 1 Unit
So far this season, Browns games have combined for an average of 46.6 points, while Patriots games have averaged 44.4 points. However, the Browns have had some of the biggest combined point totals of the season, including an 89-point affair against the Chargers in Week 5. The Patriots had a Week 7 win over the Jets that had a 67-point total.
Cleveland’s defense is allowing touchdowns in the red zone 66.67% of the time (21st in the NFL), while New England’s defense ranks eighth and is allowing touchdowns in the red zone at a 52% clip. New England’s offense, however, is scoring touchdowns in the red zone 54.84% of the time which, ironically, is tied with the Browns percentage.
Neither team is a great red zone offense, but Cleveland specializes in explosive run plays as they have a whopping 17% explosive run rate and 46 explosive runs. New England specializes in explosive passes as they are seventh in that category with an 11% explosive pass rate and 36 explosive passing plays per Sharp Football Stats.
It’s not going to be a gimme for the Over, but I do think they end up with the aforementioned score of 28-24, which would make the total 52 and win you this bet.
Thank you for reading our NFL Week 10 Browns vs Patriots Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 10 Best Bets.