NFL Week 5 Best Bets | Predictions & Picks for NFL Week 5

Last Updated: Oct 9, 2021

Week 4 of the NFL season was another great week when it comes to our bets. We went 5-1 with our best bets, with the only loss coming in the Tampa Bay-New England game.

Week 5 looks to be another fantastic slate of games, and it should be a good one for bettors as we are starting to learn which teams to bet on and which teams to avoid.

To prepare you for the week ahead, here are our best bets for Week 5 in our NFL prediction and picks series. All odds are current as of Monday, October 4.

Marcus Mosher’s Best Bets NFL Betting Record: 19-5

Sportsbook Play of the Day

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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Week 5 tipster picks.

NFL Week 5 Best Bets

Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Titans are coming off an ugly overtime loss to the New York Jets. However, neither Julio Jones nor A.J. Brown played in that game. Brown is likely to be out again, but Jones has a chance to return to the lineup.

Jacksonville certainly looked better in Week 4, narrowly losing to the Cincinnati Bengals. But this team still doesn’t have the pieces on defense to limit rushing attacks.

This one likely won’t be pretty but expect the Titans to bounce back in a big way in Week 5.

Titans vs. Jaguars Prediction: Titans 27, Jaguars 20

Titans vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Titans -4 (-110) at Caesars

The Titans have won seven of their last eight games against the Jaguars, but can they cover the spread? Well, it’s worth mentioning that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight meetings when facing their divisional opponent.

While Jacksonville would love nothing more than to get their first win of the season against Tennesee, the talent differential is substantial in this game. Look for it to be close for a while, but the Titans will ultimately win and cover this spread.

Ryan Tannehill was fine in Week 4, but he should be even better in Week 5 against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.

Titans vs. Jaguars Best Bet: Under 48.5 (-110) at Caesars

You can make a case that the Titans might have the worst defense in the NFL. They just allowed 27 points to the Jets in Week 4 after New York had scored a combined 20 points in the first three games of the season.

However, the Under in this game feels like the right play as both teams are going to want to run the ball to limit the number of snaps that their defense has to be on the field. Look for Derrick Henry to approach 30 touches again in this game, but for the Under to hit in Jacksonville.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans

After a tough loss in Week 4, Ryan Tannehill and the Tennessee Titans look to bounce back against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 5. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Green Bay Packers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

After their embarrassing Week 1 loss, the Packers finally look like the Packers once again. Aaron Rodgers has thrown eight touchdowns to no interceptions in his last three games and has an absurd passer rating of 119.4.

But they will be tested in Week 5, as the Bengals sit at 3-1 and are coming off of a Thursday night win over the Jaguars. Can Joe Burrow match Rodgers in this game and go toe-to-toe with the Packers?

This should be a really fun game and one that the Bengals need to stay competitive in if they want to show the world that they are actual contenders this season.

Packers vs. Bengals Prediction: Packers 30, Bengals 20

Packers vs. Bengals Best Bet: Packers -3.5 (-110) at Caesars

The Packers are road favorites in this game, but you shouldn’t be scared. Green Bay is 10-4 straight up in their last 14 road games and has excelled against out-of-conference opponents. While Rodgers has had some problems in the past against good teams on the road, this feels a bit different.

The Bengals have improved their defense this season, but they have a few big injuries in the secondary. Look for Rodgers to pick apart their defense and for Green Bay to ultimately cover the spread in Cincinnati. Jump on this line now before it moves up during the week and before kickoff.

Green Bay should win by at least a touchdown in Week 5.

Packers vs. Bengals Best Bet: Over 49.5 (-110) at Caesars

As previously mentioned, the Bengals have a few big injuries in their secondary entering Week 5. Jessie Bates missed Week 4 and starting cornerback Chidobe Awuzie is likely to miss this game with a groin injury.

For the Packers, Jaire Alexander left the team’s Week 4 game due to a shoulder injury and he did not return. While that is obviously concerning for the Packers, it’s a good thing for Over bettors.

Look for both teams to score into the 20s in this game, allowing the Over to hit. It’s worth noting that the Over has hit in six of the last eight games for the Packers as their defense has struggled to get off the field.

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The game of the week is a rematch from the AFC Championship game last season. The Buffalo Bills have completely dominated since their Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and you can make a case that they are the best team in football.

The Bills have posted two shutouts this year and have allowed a combined 37 points on defense through four games. While the defense has been outstanding, there are still some concerns about Josh Allen in big games. Is this the night where he finally starts to shift the narrative?

Kansas City got a much-needed road win in Week 4 against the Philadelphia Eagles, but there are still some major problems for this team. They have not held an opponent under 29 points yet this season, and the run defense is a huge concern going forward.

However, the offense is still as good as ever, but they have some real issues in their defensive line and secondary entering Week 5. Is Patrick Mahomes good enough to overcome their defensive woes? Of course. But will he? That remains to be seen.

Bills vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 30, Bills 24

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs -3 (-105) at Caesars

The Chiefs are just 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games. What is more concerning is that they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games. So why you should you bet on the Chiefs here in this game?

Well, the spread is relatively low. If the Chiefs win this game, it’s likely going to be by at least a field goal. Most of the time, the Chiefs are more than 3-point home favorites, and that’s why they have had some trouble covering spreads. But the offense is clicking, and Buffalo’s defense hasn’t seen a unit like this all season long.

Expect this game to be close, but for the Chiefs to ultimately win at home in primetime as they have done so many times before under Andy Reid.

Bills vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Under 57 points (-110) at Caesars

The point total for this matchup is set at 57 points, which is easily the highest of the week. It’s not a surprise as both of these offenses can put points up in a hurry.

However, that is still a ton of points despite these two teams combining for 62 points the last time they played.

It’s worth noting that the Under has hit in four of the last six games for the Bills as their defense usually finds ways to limit opponents near the red zone. If that’s the case in this one, the Under should be in play.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week 5 Best Bets! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 5 Power Rankings.


Marcus Mosher

Marcus Mosher is an NFL analyst at The Game Day, residing in Erie, PA. He covers the NFL from a betting and fantasy perspective, producing written and video content. Marcus currently hosts multiple football-related podcasts and is a managing editor at USA Today’s Sports Media Group covering the Las Vegas Raiders. He has previously worked at The Athletic and Bleacher Report.

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