The Buffalo Bills improved 3-1 on the season after pummeling the Houston Texans in Week 4. In all three of their wins, they’ve scored an average of 39.3 points per game.
Now, they’ll travel to Kansas City to take on a Chiefs team that is 2-2 and looking to make a statement after a surprisingly slow start to the season.
The difference between these two teams has been defense and competition. While the Bills have dominated defensively as of late, they’ve also faced four teams below .500.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have struggled defensively, but have had to face four potential playoff contenders to start the season. Their two losses have come to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers.
Clearly, it doesn’t get any easier for the Chiefs, but it’s going to get a lot harder for the Bills, who will go on the road and face an actual playoff team for the first time this year.
Can the Bills defense actually stop the Chiefs like they have against mediocre teams this season?
All odds in the SNF football predictions series are current as of Friday, October 8.
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Sunday Night Football Prediction Week 5
The Bills look like one of the best teams in the NFL this season. After a surprising Week 1 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bills have regrouped and have won their last three games by a combined score of 118-21.
That includes two shutout wins over the Miami Dolphins and Houston Texans, plus a 43-point performance in their win against the Washington Football Team.
The argument against the Bills is that they haven’t played real competition. That’s truly fair, though the Bills have done what they were expected to do in their three wins.
Behind quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills are averaging 411.3 yards and 33.5 points per game. Allen has thrown for 1055 yards and 9 touchdowns along with 2 interceptions.
Coming into the league, Allen was an afterthought as a pocket passer, but he’s been able to hang in there while also putting together impressive scrambles that result in many yards. Allen is also able to throw it on the run and has plenty of big-time playmakers he can rely on, including star wideout Stefon Diggs.
I talk about Allen’s pocket presence because Buffalo’s offensive line has struggled to protect him. He’s standing strong in the pocket, but if he needs to get away from pressure with his feet, he’s very capable.
The Bills have terrorized opposing offenses, allowing just 235.3 yards and 11 points per game. Teams are averaging 68 rushing yards and just 167.3 yards passing.
In reality, teams aren’t rushing the ball against the Bills because they’re down big from the get-go. Meanwhile, the coverage and pass rush has been absolutely fantastic and can get through the Chiefs pass protection, which isn’t great either — something that’s reflected in the NFL gameday odds.
The Kansas City offense is averaging 434.8 yards per game, as quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. The offense will always find ways to score points, but the Chiefs are going to have to dig deeper in this game.
The offense will be fine, but the same can’t be said about the defense. They’re allowing 453 yards per game along with 31.3 points.
If anything, the best matchup for points in this game is the Bills offense against the Chiefs defense. They’re missing plenty of assignments and tackles and have allowed 307 yards per game in the air behind a terrible coverage unit.
Even though they’re underdogs on the road, the analytics continue to prove that the Bills are the better football team.
SNF Week 5 Pick: Bills 38, Chiefs 31
Sunday Night Football Best Bets Week 5
SNF Best Bet: Bills +2.5 (-105) at BetMGM
I realize the Bills haven’t played a “playoff" opponent this season. Regardless, they have looked tremendous through Weeks 2-4, posting a ridiculous +97 point differential.
The Chiefs have been extremely weak against good offenses. Unfortunately for them, Buffalo’s offense is one of the best in the league.
As long as the Bills drive into Kansas City territory, they’ll stay in this game throughout, no matter what the Chiefs end up doing offensively. This game has the makings for a shootout, but the Bills simply have the better team right now.
Buffalo has performed better and the Chiefs have really struggled to cover against most opponents as of late. The Chiefs got a cover in Week 4, but the bigger picture shows they haven’t been nearly as dominant, especially as favorites.
In a primetime spot, I’m liking the Bills to take care of business. I’ll use the insurance and grab the +2.5 instead of the moneyline, but I fully expect the Bills to stay in this game. Feel comfortable in making this pick of the day.
SNF Best Bet: Over 56.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM
Both teams are averaging 33.5 points per game. While the Bills have been much better on defense, going up against the Chiefs offense is a much harder test.
After putting together two shutouts in three games, it can really only go down from here for the defense against the Chiefs.
Meanwhile, the Kansas City defense has been absolutely terrible this season, giving up over 450 yards per game. The Bills should be able to find their way down the field nearly every drive.
Additionally, Kansas City continues to miss tackles, and having to try to tackle Allen won’t be the easiest of tasks.
Let’s ride the over on primetime and make this our NFL bet of the day.