The Houston Astros rallied from a 4-0 deficit on the road to win Game 5 of the World Series against the Atlanta Braves, staving off elimination and sending the series back to Houston with a 9-5 victory.
The Astros must win again tonight at home in order to extend their season. The Braves, on the other hand, will try again to close out the series and clinch their first championship since 1995.
With so much at stake and plenty of scenarios to consider, tonight’s game is a must-watch, even with the game potentially ending around midnight on the East Coast. With that in mind, here are our World Series Game 6 predictions and bet picks.
Please note that all Braves vs Astros odds and lines are current as of 10 AM EST on Tuesday, November 2.
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Braves vs Astros World Series Game 6 Prediction
Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros, November 2, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Max Fried, Braves (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
- Luis Garcia, Astros (11-8, 3.48 ERA)
Atlanta led through four innings of Game 5 and appeared on track to clinch the World Series at home, but their bats went silent during the second half of the game while their bullpen unraveled. Now, they must try to win one more game on the road.
Tonight the Braves will turn to Max Fried, who was hammered for six runs on seven hits in a Game 2 loss at Houston. After starting the postseason with consecutive quality starts, Fried has been roughed up in back-to-back outings with 11 earned runs and 15 hits allowed over his last 9 2/3 innings.
Can Fried bounce back and rediscover the form that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half? Or is his left arm feeling the strain of the career-high 187 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the regular season and postseason this year?
The Astros present a tough matchup for Fried, as they were MLB’s best-hitting team against southpaws this season. On the other hand, Houston’s offense has been wildly inconsistent in this series, scoring two runs or less in their three losses but combining for 16 runs in their two victories. If Fried can keep them at bay for four or five innings, that will give Atlanta a great chance to win this game.
Especially since the Braves will face rookie right-hander Luis Garcia, who has also been a mixed bag in the postseason. He’s followed the opposite trend of Fried, where his first two starts were terrible but he’s been much better in his last two starts. Which version of the 24-year-old will show up tonight?
The biggest red flag with Garcia is his command, as he’s walked 11 batters in 13 innings this postseason. The Braves were a patient team during the regular season, ranking 10th overall with a 9.1% walk rate. If they stay disciplined against Garcia and capitalize on his mistakes, they could easily jump out to another early advantage as they did in Game 5.
If that happens, look for Fried to do a better job holding the lead than Atlanta’s patchwork bullpen in Game 5.
World Series Game 5 Pick: Braves 4, Astros 2
Can Atlanta Braves SP Max Fried rebound from a pair of rough postseason starts to defeat the Houston Astros in World Series Game 6? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
Braves vs Astros Best Bets
Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (+115) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Houston’s projected lineup has a ground-ball rate of just under 50% in the last 30 days with only a 21.9% line-drive rate. We saw that against Fried in his last start, but unfortunately for him too many of those grounders found holes. That’s not a sustainable recipe for success for the Astros, however, so with better luck Fried should have a solid outing tonight.
Meanwhile, Atlanta strikes out a ton against right-handed pitchers but also makes lots of hard contact. Their projected lineup has an absurd 43% line-drive rate over the past 30 days. Combined with Garcia’s wildness, this should result in enough runs for the Braves to prevail in our MLB bet of the day.
Read all of our 2021 World Series Game 6 Betting Tips
Best Bet: Braves +1.5 (-180) at WynnBet
Wager: 1 Unit
Since I’m already predicting Atlanta to win Game 6, I’m also confident that they’ll cover the spread on our MLB gameday odds. Their left-handed batters should be able to smack Garcia around, especially after seeing him once already in this series. He has an ugly 7.62 ERA during these playoffs, which could only worsen if his control problems persist.
Furthermore, I trust Fried to step up when it matters the most. He was lights-out during the second half and I’m expecting a return to form here.
Best Bet: Under 9 Total Runs (-121) at Unibet
Wager: 1 Unit
Fried was a quality-start machine during the second half and is plenty capable of going five or six innings while allowing just a couple of runs. He also induced 10 ground balls against Houston in his last start, so if he replicates that he should have little trouble getting outs against a Houston offense that has been hit-or-miss in this series.
The Braves haven’t hit particularly well throughout the postseason, and that’s been true during the Fall Classic as well, where they’ve scored more than three runs only twice. With Houston in survival mode, Dusty Baker won’t hesitate to empty his bullpen at the first sign of trouble, especially after both teams had a chance to rest yesterday.
Considering that Game 5 was the only game in this series with more than nine total runs, I’m backing the Under here.
