2021 World Series Game 6 Predictions | Braves vs Astros Best Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Nov 2, 2021

The Houston Astros rallied from a 4-0 deficit on the road to win Game 5 of the World Series against the Atlanta Braves, staving off elimination and sending the series back to Houston with a 9-5 victory.

The Astros must win again tonight at home in order to extend their season. The Braves, on the other hand, will try again to close out the series and clinch their first championship since 1995.

With so much at stake and plenty of scenarios to consider, tonight’s game is a must-watch, even with the game potentially ending around midnight on the East Coast. With that in mind, here are our World Series Game 6 predictions and bet picks.

Please note that all Braves vs Astros odds and lines are current as of 10 AM EST on Tuesday, November 2.

Sportsbook Play of the Day

Before you make your 2021 World Series Game 6 bet picks, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is among the industry’s best, offering tons of promotions and a fantastic $5,000 bonus bets welcome bonus to new signups using our promo code .

Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our Braves vs Astros best bets.

Braves vs Astros World Series Game 6 Prediction

Atlanta Braves @ Houston Astros, November 2, 8:09 PM EST on FOX

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Max Fried, Braves (14-7, 3.04 ERA)
  • Luis Garcia, Astros (11-8, 3.48 ERA)

Atlanta led through four innings of Game 5 and appeared on track to clinch the World Series at home, but their bats went silent during the second half of the game while their bullpen unraveled. Now, they must try to win one more game on the road.

Tonight the Braves will turn to Max Fried, who was hammered for six runs on seven hits in a Game 2 loss at Houston. After starting the postseason with consecutive quality starts, Fried has been roughed up in back-to-back outings with 11 earned runs and 15 hits allowed over his last 9 2/3 innings.

Can Fried bounce back and rediscover the form that made him one of the best pitchers in baseball during the second half? Or is his left arm feeling the strain of the career-high 187 1/3 innings he’s thrown between the regular season and postseason this year?

The Astros present a tough matchup for Fried, as they were MLB’s best-hitting team against southpaws this season. On the other hand, Houston’s offense has been wildly inconsistent in this series, scoring two runs or less in their three losses but combining for 16 runs in their two victories. If Fried can keep them at bay for four or five innings, that will give Atlanta a great chance to win this game.

Especially since the Braves will face rookie right-hander Luis Garcia, who has also been a mixed bag in the postseason. He’s followed the opposite trend of Fried, where his first two starts were terrible but he’s been much better in his last two starts. Which version of the 24-year-old will show up tonight?

The biggest red flag with Garcia is his command, as he’s walked 11 batters in 13 innings this postseason. The Braves were a patient team during the regular season, ranking 10th overall with a 9.1% walk rate. If they stay disciplined against Garcia and capitalize on his mistakes, they could easily jump out to another early advantage as they did in Game 5.

If that happens, look for Fried to do a better job holding the lead than Atlanta’s patchwork bullpen in Game 5.

World Series Game 5 Pick: Braves 4, Astros 2

Max Fried Atlanta Braves SP

Can Atlanta Braves SP Max Fried rebound from a pair of rough postseason starts to defeat the Houston Astros in World Series Game 6? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Braves vs Astros Best Bets

Best Bet: Braves Moneyline (+115) at Caesars

Wager: 1 Unit

Houston’s projected lineup has a ground-ball rate of just under 50% in the last 30 days with only a 21.9% line-drive rate. We saw that against Fried in his last start, but unfortunately for him too many of those grounders found holes. That’s not a sustainable recipe for success for the Astros, however, so with better luck Fried should have a solid outing tonight.

Meanwhile, Atlanta strikes out a ton against right-handed pitchers but also makes lots of hard contact. Their projected lineup has an absurd 43% line-drive rate over the past 30 days. Combined with Garcia’s wildness, this should result in enough runs for the Braves to prevail in our MLB bet of the day.

Read all of our 2021 World Series Game 6 Betting Tips

Best Bet: Braves +1.5 (-180) at WynnBet

Wager: 1 Unit

Since I’m already predicting Atlanta to win Game 6, I’m also confident that they’ll cover the spread on our MLB gameday odds. Their left-handed batters should be able to smack Garcia around, especially after seeing him once already in this series. He has an ugly 7.62 ERA during these playoffs, which could only worsen if his control problems persist.

Furthermore, I trust Fried to step up when it matters the most. He was lights-out during the second half and I’m expecting a return to form here.

Best Bet: Under 9 Total Runs (-121) at Unibet

Wager: 1 Unit

Fried was a quality-start machine during the second half and is plenty capable of going five or six innings while allowing just a couple of runs. He also induced 10 ground balls against Houston in his last start, so if he replicates that he should have little trouble getting outs against a Houston offense that has been hit-or-miss in this series.

The Braves haven’t hit particularly well throughout the postseason, and that’s been true during the Fall Classic as well, where they’ve scored more than three runs only twice. With Houston in survival mode, Dusty Baker won’t hesitate to empty his bullpen at the first sign of trouble, especially after both teams had a chance to rest yesterday.

Considering that Game 5 was the only game in this series with more than nine total runs, I’m backing the Under here.


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

Related articles


Get $1,500 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets or First Bet Safety Net

5 stars

Bet $10, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get A Bonus Bet Up to $1,000

5 stars

Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets

5 stars

Get Up To $250 Second Chance Bonus Bet

5 stars

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (CO, DC, IL, IN, LA, MD, MS, NJ, OH, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY).

Call 877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).

Please Gamble Responsibly. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (KS, NV), 1-800-327-5050 (MA), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help (MI).

All betting content on TheGameDay.com is exclusively intended for audience members 21 years and older who are permitted to gamble in legal states. The Game Day may earn revenue from site visitor referrals to betting services.

Responsible Gaming: Many sportsbooks offer ways to encourage responsible gaming, including the establishment of limits to deposits, spending, and time dedicated to betting.

The Game Day is a TGD Marketing Ltd. endeavor.