2021 ALCS Game 5 Predictions | Astros vs Red Sox Best Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Oct 20, 2021

Game 4 of the ALCS brought another blowout, albeit an unconventional one as the Houston Astros erupted for seven runs in the ninth inning against the Boston Red Sox to turn a 2-2 pitcher’s duel into a 9-2 laugher. With the series now tied at two games apiece, which team will win tonight’s critical Game 5 at Fenway Park?

Both clubs will turn to their Game 1 starters, neither of whom completed the third inning. Accordingly, we could be in for another long game with lots of relievers and offense.

Will Boston bounce back to retake the series lead? Or will Houston set themselves up to clinch the pennant at home? Let’s dive in with our ALCS Game 5 predictions and best bets.

Please note that all Astros vs Red Sox odds and lines are current as of 10 AM EST on Wednesday, October 20.

Astros vs Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Prediction

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, October 20, 5:08 PM EST on FS1

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Framber Valdez, Astros (11-6, 3.14 ERA)
  • Chris Sale, Red Sox (5-1, 3.16 ERA)

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Tonight is an extremely important game for both sides, especially the Red Sox. If Boston loses tonight, they’ll have to win back-to-back games in Houston, which is a tall order.

Chris Sale will get the start for the home team after recording just eight outs in Game 1. He’s failed to complete three innings in each of his last starts, so it’s unclear how long he’ll last, especially against a lineup that’s raked lefties this year. The Red Sox desperately need him to rebound here, or at least keep them in the game for a few innings before giving way to the bullpen.

Meanwhile, Framber Valdez will get the call for the Astros. He also managed to get only eight outs in Game 1, which was actually the longest outing by a Houston starter in this series. The Astros’ bullpen is extremely overworked, so Dusty Baker may have to ride him into the middle innings regardless of how well he’s pitching.

Both offenses were uncharacteristically quiet in Game 4 (until the final inning, that is), so don’t be surprised if they bounce back in Game 5. Both bullpens are wearing down and could struggle to get outs on what promises to be another beautiful fall evening in Boston.

This is an intriguing matchup and should be a close game. Houston has hit lefties well all season, however, and if they jump out to an early lead against Sale they might not look back.

ALCS Game 5 Pick: Astros 4, Red Sox 2

Chris Sale Boston Red Sox SP

Can Boston Red Sox LHP Chris Sale bounce back against the Houston Astros in ALCS Game 5? (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Astros vs Red Sox ALCS Game 5 Best Bets

Best Bet: Houston Astros Moneyline (+112) at WynnBet

Wager: 1 Unit

Sale isn’t the ace he used to be. He’s struggled against good teams this season and the Astros’ lineup is a nightmare for southpaws. Even if he pitches better than his last few starts, he’ll still likely give up at least a run or two and allow Houston to take an early lead.

The Red Sox are capable of blowing teams out, but the Astros were the better team this year and are superior in close games, as they proved in Games 1 and 4. Given that I think Game 5 will be a tight, lower-scoring affair, I’m backing Houston in our MLB bet of the day.

Best Bet: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-105) at WynnBet

Wager: 1 Unit

The Over has been the play in this series with these offenses, but Game 4 was headed for the Under before that wacky ninth inning. Neither team scored a run from the second inning through the seventh, so perhaps these lineups are finally cooling off a bit.

Both starters have been pretty unlucky lately, and I think that changes in Game 5. If both hurlers pitch up to their potential based on what we saw during the regular season, this game should be relatively low-scoring and will hit the Under based on our MLB gameday odds.

Best Bet: Boston Red Sox Under 4.5 Team Total (+104) at Unibet

Wager: 1 Unit

The Red Sox managed just five hits in Game 5 after reaching double digits in each of their previous six games. They were also held scoreless after Xander Bogaerts‘ first-inning homer despite facing a diminished Zack Greinke and an overtaxed Astros bullpen.

Valdez has been an exceptional ground-ball pitcher throughout his career with a 66.1% ground-ball rate, including a 70.3% clip this season. That should enable him to succeed in Fenway and avoid the type of costly mistakes that his teammates have allowed with men on base.

With the plus odds here, there’s just too much value to pass up.

Thanks for reading our ALCS Game 5 Predictions! For more MLB betting tips, check out our NLCS Game 4 Predictions and MLB Playoffs Parlay Picks.


Jason Radowitz

Jason Radowitz is a jack of all trades when it comes to writing sports. Jason writes and bets the MLB, NFL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB when the sports are in season. Currently, he's a Writer and Betting Analyst for The Game Day providing daily content in the MLB. Earlier in his sports career, Jason was a graduate assistant for the University of Hartford Men's Basketball team using analytics and numbers to help put together the winningest season in program history. With his articles, you will be sure to get an analytical approach.

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