2021 ALCS Game 4 Predictions | Astros vs Red Sox Bets & Projections

Last Updated: Oct 20, 2021

The 2021 ALCS between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros has been appointment TV through the first three games of the series. After the Astros prevailed in a tense Game 1, the Red Sox roared back with blowout victories in Games 2 and 3. Boston has scored 21 runs over the past two games, 12 of which have come on a postseason-series-record three grand slams.

This series has supplied tons of offense thus far without much quality pitching. That was generally expected based on the explosiveness of both lineups, but I don’t think anyone could have predicted this much scoring from both teams combined.

With the momentum swinging towards Boston, can Houston even the series tonight at Fenway Park? Or will the Red Sox push the Astros to the brink of elimination with a third straight win? Let’s discuss my ALCS Game 4 predictions and best bets.

Please note that all ALCS Game 4 odds and lines are current as of 10 AM ET on Tuesday, October 19, courtesy of BetMGM.

Astros vs Red Sox ALCS Game 4 Prediction

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox, October 19, 8:08 PM ET on FS1

Probable Starting Pitchers:

  • Zack Greinke, Astros (11-6, 4.16 ERA)
  • Nick Pivetta, Red Sox (9-8, 4.53 ERA)

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There’s no stopping Boston’s blistering offense, which has recorded double-digit hits in a postseason-record six straight games. Houston simply doesn’t have the pitching depth to keep their bats under control. The Astros are more than capable of their own offensive explosion, however, and it could come in Game 4 against Nick Pivetta.

While Pivetta was almost exclusively used as a starter during the regular season, both of his playoff appearances have come in relief. Game 4 will be his first career postseason start and first appearance in this series, but it’s much deserved after his sensational long-relief outing during Boston’s extra-inning victory in Game 3 of the ALDS.

Zack Greinke hasn’t pitched up to his usual standards over the past two seasons, but he still brings a veteran presence and loads of postseason experience to the table. After teeing off on fastballs all series, the Red Sox hitters will have to adjust to Greinke’s change-of-pace style in Game 4.

While Greinke is the more accomplished starter, I simply cannot go against Boston. I’m backing their offense until the wheels fall off, which probably won’t happen against a fading ace who’s two days shy of his 38th birthday.

Astros vs Red Sox Game 4 Prediction: Red Sox 8, Astros 5

Zack Greinke Houston Astros SP

The Houston Astros will try to even the 2021 ALCS vs the Boston Red Sox at 2-2 behind Zack Greinke in ALCS Game 4. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Astros vs Red Sox Best Bets

Best Bet: Red Sox Moneyline (-130) at BetMGM

Wager: 2 Units

As noted above, Boston’s offense is in the midst of a historic run. Everyone seems to contribute each night in some way. They’ve been relentless throughout the playoffs, and there just aren’t any holes in this lineup right now.

I believe Greinke can pitch well enough to keep the game close for Houston, but his inability to generate swings and misses (6.3 K/9 this year) could be a problem. Back the team with momentum and arguably the better starting pitcher in Game 4 for our MLB bet of the day.

Best Bet: Over 9.5 Total Runs (-115) at BetMGM

Wager: 1 Unit

The Over has hit in every game this series, with Games 2 and 3 going over by a wide margin. There has been an average of 12.7 runs per game in this series, which leads me to take the Over in Game 4.

This total is high according to our MLB gameday odds, but both lineups are swinging the bat well and Fenway Park certainly encourages offense. I expect that trend to continue in Game 4, especially against the weaker members of both teams’ starting rotations.

Thanks for reading our ALCS Game 4 Predictions! For more MLB betting tips, check out our NLCS Game 3 Predictions.


Daniel Preciado

Daniel Preciado is a current student at Syracuse University in the sports analytics program where he is minoring in economics. He is a yearly participant in numerous high-stakes fantasy leagues across multiple sports. Prior to joining The Game Day, Daniel Preciado has written for The Action Network, FanSided, and Fantrax.

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