The Los Angeles Dodgers are desperate for a win after losing the first two games of the NLCS to the Atlanta Braves in walk-off fashion. Nearly 70 percent of teams that win the first two games of a series advance to the next round, so the Braves have to be feeling good about themselves.
Los Angeles has been dominant at home, however, going 60-24 at Dodger Stadium this year. They’ll look to get back on track in front of their home crowd today with Walker Buehler on the bump.
This is essentially a must-win game for the Dodgers, as they can’t afford to go down 3-0. Check out our NLCS Game 3 predictions and best bets.
Please note that all Braves vs Dodgers odds and lines are current as of 1 PM EST on Tuesday, October 19.
Braves vs Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Prediction
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers Probable Starting Pitchers:
- Charlie Morton, Braves (14-6, 3.34 ERA)
- Walker Buehler, Dodgers (16-4, 2.47 ERA)
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Charlie Morton will get the start in Game 3 for the Braves. He’s been solid this postseason, allowing four runs on seven hits with one home run, 14 strikeouts, and just two walks over his last 9 1/3 innings.
Morton has 3.40 xFIP over the last 30 days, striking out 31.1% of batters he’s faced with just a 7.4% walk rate. You won’t find Morton inducing a heavy number of grounders, but he’s done well limiting hard contact, with just an 18% line-drive rate over that span.
The Dodgers’ offense hasn’t been all that spectacular against righties over the last month. Their projected lineup has a .189 ISO and .333 wOBA in the past 30 days against right-handed pitching, led by Corey Seager (.456 wOBA) and Trea Turner (.398 wOBA).
On the other side, Buehler will get the call for Los Angeles. Dave Roberts may not give him much of a leash if they fall behind early, but Buehler’s recent numbers suggest he’ll pitch well.
In the last 30 days, Buehler has a 2.46 xFIP along with 28.7% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. He’s also done a good job keeping the ball on the ground with a 54.2% ground-ball rate.
The Braves have also struggled to find success against right-handed pitchers lately. Their projected lineup is hitting 27.2% line drives vs. RHP with a .343 BABIP over the last 30 days, but they’re also striking out 27.2% of the time against righties.
This is the perfect spot for Buehler to rack up strikeouts and induce a heavy amount of ground balls, making the Dodgers strong bets to win this game.
Braves vs Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Pick: Dodgers 4, Braves 1
Braves vs Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Best Bets
Best Bet: Dodgers Moneyline (-182) at WynnBet
Wager: 1.72 Units
The Braves’ roster is just 9-for-51 with three extra-base hits against Buehler. He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season and is ready to have a big day under the spotlight at home. I love Buehler to pitch a quality start and lead the Dodgers to victory, making this our MLB bet of the day.
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-120) at Caesars
Wager: 1.10 Units
The Braves and Dodgers should have big-time pitching duel tonight. There are also too many rally-killers in both lineups to expect big runs against two veteran pitchers who have been absolute aces all season long.
Take the Under on our MLB gameday odds.
Best Bet: Walker Buehler Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Taking a pitcher’s strikeout prop in the postseason is gutsy. However, even if Buehler goes five innings, there’s a good chance he can cash in on this prop of Over 5.5 strikeouts. As mentioned above, the Braves’ lineup has been striking out a ton the last 30 days, and that’s not even including the pitcher’s spot, which obviously strikes out a lot too.
Buehler is striking out just under 29% of batters, so he’s a good bet to rack up some Ks. Additionally, there are only two batters in Atlanta’s lineup striking out under 22% of the time against RHP. At home, Buehler is going to have a day.
Thanks for reading our NLCS Game 3 Predictions! For more MLB betting tips, check out our ALCS Game 4 Predictions.