It might feel like summer in the Northeast, but it’s surprisingly the middle of November. That means that we have a few weeks of regular-season college football remaining.
From margin of victory bets, halves, reverse teasers, and team totals, the betting selections are like pi — never-ending and arguably irrational.
Below, check out my five favorite CFB props for this weekend.
Note: College football odds are current as of Friday, Nov. 11, and courtesy of the sportsbooks listed.
CFP Week 11 Prop: Pitt vs Virginia
Pitt 1H -2.5 (-115) at BetMGM Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
Pitt is a 4.5-point favorite at BetMGM against Virginia, which looks appealing. However, the more appealing bet for me is backing them in the first half to cover a 2.5-point spread at (-115). Almost all the other books have them at -3 (-110).
Even though seven is the most important key number for first- and second-half bets, three is second-most important. This is because exactly three points decide 8.4% of first halves.
Pitt has had some strong wins this season. They beat Syracuse 19-9 at home last week, and nearly beat Tennessee in overtime in the second week.
Virginia has only one ACC win against Georgia Tech. They lost to Miami, North Carolina, Louisville, Duke, and Syracuse.
Pitt has underperformed this season, but they should win the first half by at least three points.
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CFP Week 11 Props: Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
Kentucky To Win By 1-13 Points (+220) at PointsBet Sportsbook
Under 42.5 Points (+155) at Betway Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit Each
Kentucky is a strong team despite their 6-3 record. Their only losses are against Tennessee, South Carolina (when quarterback Will Levis was injured), and Ole Miss.
On the other hand, Vanderbilt has no SEC wins, and their only three wins have come in non-conference games where they were favored (Hawaii, Elon, and Northern Illinois). Based on the disparity of talent between both teams, why would I go against Kentucky covering an 18-point spread?
For every great prop betting strategy, you need a theory on how the game will go. Mine is that Kentucky’s defense will deliver against a weak Vanderbilt offense, but the Wildcats will struggle to get many points on the board.
Kentucky scored only 21 points against Missouri last week, six against National Championship odds contender Tennessee the week before, and 27 against an up-tempo Mississippi State team.
Rather than betting the regular Under of 47 points, I am taking an alternate Under of 42.5 points at (+155). Additionally, if the game is as low-scoring as I think it will be, Kentucky should win by less than two touchdowns.
CFP Week 11 Props: Rice vs Western Kentucky
Over 69 Points (+245) at BetRivers Sportsbook
7-Point Reverse Teaser: Rice vs Western Kentucky Over 66.5 Points & Temple vs Houston Over 62.5 Points (+850) at Tipico Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit Each
How you should bet on this week’s Rice vs Western Kentucky game depends on what sportsbooks you have access to. For most, you can bet on their alternate Over at a nice price, and for others, you can put their Over in a reverse teaser.
The regular total of 60.5 points is too low, and I could see this game being even uglier than the total implies.
Recently, against some weaker offensive teams, Rice has been involved in high-scoring games. Last week against UTEP, 67 points were scored. The week before against Charlotte, 59 points were scored.
Western Kentucky is always involved in high-scoring games because of its up-tempo air raid offense. Last week, the Hilltoppers scored 59 points after quarterback Austin Reed threw for six touchdowns and 409 passing yards.
Strategically, betting on Over 69 points at (+245) is a great bet, but even better is if you can combine the Over with another Over in a reverse teaser. As far as exotic bets, a reverse teaser is like a regular one, only you are selling points rather than buying them.
Tipico Sportsbook is available in Colorado and New Jersey, and they have 7-point college football reverse teasers, which pay (+850) for two teams.
For this game, I am combining the Over for Rice-Western Kentucky with the Over on the Temple-Houston game. In a regular alt-line parlay at BetRivers, this pays (+680).
Parlays might be seen as a sucker bet, but in this case, you are getting better value than betting each alternate total separately.
CFP Week 11 Prop: Temple vs Houston
Temple 1H +10.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I think the Temple and Houston game this weekend will be a high-scoring contest, partly because Temple has become a competitive offensive team recently. This is something I touched on in my weekly CFB Best bets article as well.
Because of this, I am including them in my reverse teaser with the Rice-WKU total. I’m also in on their full-game spread.
However, what is even greater is betting on Temple to cover a +10.5 first-half spread. Even though three and seven are important key numbers for spreads, 10 is important as well because this margin decides 7% of first halves.
Temple should be competitive with Houston in the first half, and I would bet their spread up to +10.
