My 6-0 streak on CFB Best Bets ended last week with an 0-3 mark. I did salvage some self-respect, though, going 3-1 on one-unit leans.
I’m relying on my Midwest roots with two Big Ten Conference plays, including a Best Bet on the Michigan-Penn State matchup.
Before the season, I bet Over Michigan’s win total believing the Wolverines will go unbeaten. This is their first big test, with another in two weeks against Ohio State.
Stephen Nover’s TGD Picks Record: 28-36-2
CFB odds used in these betting tips are current as of Wednesday, Nov. 8, at 12:30 a.m. ET
CFB Week 11 Best Bets
Michigan @ Penn State
BEST BET: Michigan -4.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units
Second-ranked Michigan finally gets a chance to prove how good it really is. Look for the Wolverines to be up to the task.
Penn State is good, it’s just that Michigan is better in all facets, including defense, quarterback, running and explosiveness.
Not only do the Wolverines give up the fewest yards and points per game – the latter a measly 6.7 – but also no opponent has even reached a goal-to-go situation against them.
J.J. McCarthy is an emerging Heisman Trophy candidate. Drew Allard isn’t in that class, and he doesn’t have elite skill-position weapons, which Penn State has had in the past.
Michigan has a tremendous offensive line and one of the top runners in the country in Blake Corum. Other than West Virginia, the Nittany Lions haven’t faced a strong running opponent.
Penn State lost 20-12 to Ohio State in its lone step-up game. The Nittany Lions scored a meaningless touchdown with 29 seconds left to make the score a little more respectable.
They were held to 240 yards by the Buckeyes, and I regard Michigan as being superior to Ohio State.
Miami @ Florida State
BEST BET: Florida State -14.5 (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 2 Units
Florida State buried Miami on the road, 45-3, last year. The Seminoles won’t win by 42 points again, but they will prove victorious by more than two touchdowns at home.
The Seminoles hold an edge in the passing game with Jordan Travis. Florida State quarterbacks have a 22-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and the team averages 39.6 points a game. They do a good job of limiting mistakes, having had only five turnovers.
Meanwhile, Miami is stout versus the run but barely above-average on pass defense.
Florida State has shown defensive improvement, holding its past five opponents to an average of just 12.6 points a game.
The Hurricanes have failed to cover in three of their last four games. During this span, they lost straight-up to underdogs Georgia Tech and North Carolina State, and they edged Virginia in overtime as a 19-point favorite.
I give Florida State a strong checkmark in the coaching department, but Miami’s Mario Cristobal, in his second season, is a bottom-10 coach in my book.
The Hurricanes are 5-14 against the spread in 19 games under Cristobal. He can’t be trusted to cover a game of this importance.
Arizona State @ UCLA
BEST BET: Under 44.5 (-110)
BetMGM • WAGER: 2 Units
Short-handed both at quarterback and in the offensive line, Arizona State is going to be hard-pressed to dent a UCLA defense that is tied for 13th in fewest points allowed at 16.3 per game.
The Bruins, meanwhile, are tied for second in sacks with 34 and have 17 takeaways.
The Sun Devils are off their worst Pac-12 defeat in school history, losing 55-3 to Utah. Down to their fourth-string quarterback and dealing with multiple offensive line injuries, the Sun Devils could manage only 83 yards of offense and seven first downs against the Utes.
UCLA has its own quarterback injury woes. Neither Dante Moore nor Ethan Garbers practiced on Monday because of injuries.
The Bruins are optimistic that at least one of them will be healthy for this game. Still, these are not dynamic players. UCLA averages 28.6 points, which is tied for 62nd in the country.
Arizona State is capable defensively. The Sun Devils held Washington to a season-low 15 points three games ago. That was 26 points below the Huskies’ season average.
The Sun Devils shouldn’t lack motivation, especially on defense, following that embarrassing defeat to Utah.
CFB Week 11 Betting Prediction Leans
Temple @ South Florida
BET LEAN: Temple +7 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Temple’s 3-6 record is deceiving. The Owls suffered lopsided losses to North Texas and SMU when quarterback E.J. Warner couldn’t play because of injury.
Warner returned last week and led Temple to a 32-18 upset win over Navy by completing 27-of-33 passes for 402 yards and four touchdowns. He’s one of the better quarterbacks in the American Athletic Conference.
South Florida ranks third-from-the-bottom nationwide in scoring defense, allowing 37 points per game. The Bulls are in the bottom-three in total defense and pass defense, too.
Oklahoma State @ Central Florida
BET LEAN: Central Florida +2.5 (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
I’m going to play both the letdown and due-factor cards against Oklahoma State.
The Cowboys just upset Bedlam rival Oklahoma, 27-24, at home last Saturday in the finale of a rivalry series that has gone on since 1910. That was their biggest and most satisfying win of the season.
It was the fifth straight win and cover for Oklahoma State. Now, though, the Cowboys are laying points on the road against Central Florida.
This is the first time the Knights have been a home underdog since 2020. Central Florida is 4-5, and the Knights need to win this game and their finale versus Houston to become bowl eligible. They’ve had some close losses, including a two-point road defeat to Oklahoma.
West Virginia @ Oklahoma
BET LEAN: Over 58 (-110)
BetRivers • WAGER: 1 Unit
West Virginia’s offense has really picked up, and the Mountaineers are averaging 37.8 points on offense in their last four games.
Oklahoma’s defense has gotten worse. The Sooners have surrendered an average of 31 points in their last four games, having allowed an average of just 10.8 points during its first five outings.
There’s nothing wrong with the Sooners’ offense, though. Oklahoma ranks in the top 10 in several important offensive categories, including points, yards and passing yards.
Maryland @ Nebraska
BET LEAN: Nebraska +2.5 (-110)
BetRivers • WAGER: 1 Unit
Maryland traditionally wears down during the home stretch, and it’s happening to the Terrapins again.
They have lost and failed to cover in their last four games and are 3-20 in the past 23 November matchups.
The Terrapins are yielding an average of 37 points per game during their last four contests, during which they lost straight-up to Illinois and Northwestern as two-touchdown favorites.
Nebraska is much better coached under Matt Rhule. The Cornhuskers are 5-2 in their last seven games, and they own victories against Illinois and Northwestern, unlike Maryland.
