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CFB Week 11 Predictions & Best Bets

Posted: Nov 7, 2022Last updated: Nov 7, 2022

Last weekend, the National Championship picture was upended. Tennessee and Alabama lost, which makes it less likely that two SEC teams make the playoff, and Clemson lost decisively against Notre Dame.

This week, we have a full slate of MACtion on Tuesday and Wednesday, and exciting Power Five games Saturday.

Below, read up on my best college football bets.

All college football odds are current as of noon ET on Monday, Nov. 7, at the NCAAF sportsbooks listed.

Kevin Davis’ Record (Tracked by BetStamp App): 58-74-3, -11.5% Return on Investment, +3% Closing Line Value

CFB Week 11 Best Bet: Notre Dame vs Navy

Navy +17.5 (-110) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1 Unit

Notre Dame is flying high. After a weak start to the season where they lost to CFB National Championship odds co-favorite Ohio State, Marshall, and Stanford, the Fighting Irish have some fight in them again.

Last weekend in a major upset, Notre Dame defeated Clemson, 35-14. The week before, they beat a formidable Syracuse team 41-24 on the road.

This week, they have a lopsided edge against Navy, but Navy should cover a large +17.5 spread.

Navy has a rushing play percentage of 82.1%, the second-highest in the country. Teams with high rushing play percentages tend to be involved in low-scoring games because their style of play bleeds time off the clock.

In low-scoring games, it is harder for teams to win games in blowouts. Last week against Cincinnati, as an 18.5-point underdog, Navy only lost, 20-10. When you combine this with the Midshipmen playing more competitively lately, Navy should cover, and I would back them as up to +14.5.

CFB Week 11 Best Bet: Ohio vs Miami (OH)

Ohio Moneyline (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

I have given up on Miami (Ohio), a team I was bullish on going into the season. Their defense has been strong this season as expected, but they lack a punch offensively.

Against weak MAC defenses, Miami quarterback Brett Gabbert has been ineffective since coming back from injury. In three starts this season, Gabbert has only one passing touchdown and that is not a typo. Even against Akron, Gabbert completed 56.5% of his passes and threw for 184 yards.

Ohio, on the other hand, might be the best MAC team right now. In Jeff Sagarin’s power rankings, Ohio has the best power ranking in the MAC East and the second-best in the conference behind Toledo.

One reason for the Bobcats’ success is quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the younger brother of Nathan Rourke, who is the best CFL quarterback this season. Kurtis Rourke has only four interceptions to 21 passing touchdowns and a 68.5% completion rate.

At -120, the Ohio moneyline is a steal and I would bet on their spread up to -2.5 if the -120 moneyline is no longer available.

CFB Week 11 Best Bets: Georgia Southern vs Louisiana

Louisiana -3 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook

WAGER: 1.5 Units

Under 59.5 Points (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

When you think of Thursday night football best bets this week, you might be thinking of the Falcons vs Panthers game. But there is a great betting game between Georgia Southern and Louisiana Thursday night, as well.

Both teams are nearly equal in the Sun Belt Conference standings, but this is a good matchup for the Ragin’ Cajuns, who are only favored by three points at home.

The Eagles are a pass-heavy team with a passing play percentage of 60.7%. Only Mississippi State, Indiana, Washington State, Akron, and Washington have a higher passing play percentage.

Louisiana should win because they have a strong passing defense, which allows only 6.9 yards per passing attempt, and a completion rate of only 56.9%.

In addition to betting on Louisiana’s spread, I also like for Under 59.5 points to be scored Thursday night. The Ragin’ Cajuns don’t have a spectacular offense, which is why I see a low number of points being scored.

CFB Week 11 Best Bets: Temple vs Houston

Temple +20 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook

Over 58 Points (-108) at BetRivers Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit Each

Over their last two games, Temple has played progressively better than they did at the start of the season. They took a strong Navy team to overtime, and last week, they beat South Florida, 54-28.

This weekend, Temple visiting is a Houston team that has been vulnerable defensively. Last weekend against SMU, Houston lost 77-63 and that was a football game, not a basketball game. The weekend before, they allowed 27 points to an offensively inept South Florida team.

For me, that points to two bets this weekend: the Over and Temple’s +20 spread.

Against South Florida, Temple’s rushing and passing attack flourished. Quarterback E.J. Warner went 27-for-36 and threw for 344 passing yards. Running back Edward Saydee had 24 carries, 265 rushing yards, and three touchdowns.

Houston should beat Temple, but Temple’s offense and Houston’s weak defense should make this a close high-scoring game.

CFB Week 11 Best Bet: New Mexico vs Air Force

New Mexico +23.5 (-110) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1.5 Units

Both Air Force and New Mexico are like Bruce Springsteen, they were born to run. Air Force has a rushing play percentage of 85.9%, which is the most in the country. New Mexico has a rushing play percentage of 60%, which is the 14th most in the nation.

When two teams like to run the ball, you generally have close, low-scoring games. With a point total of only 38 points, the Under may not be the play, but betting on UNM to cover a +23.5 spread is.

Air Force has an average scoring margin of +11, which is the 20th-best mark in the country, but as more games are played, they should have a lower average scoring margin based on their run-heavy triple-option offense.

Based on New Mexico losing only 27-14 against a run-heavy Wyoming offense, and last week losing 27-10 against an aggressive Utah State offense, it is reasonable to expect New Mexico to lose by less than 20 points.

How To Bet College Football Week 11

Find heavy underdogs that could cover

Temple and New Mexico aren’t the only live dogs worth looking at this weekend. There are several weak teams that should cover large spreads this weekend like Northwestern did last week as a +38.5 underdog against Ohio State.

CFB Playoff chasers could produce big margins of victory

As we get closer to the end of the regular season, National Championship contenders may look to run up the score in seemingly meaningless games to boost their national profile and playoff picture.

For example, Ohio State’s -15.5 spread may undersell a possible 30- to 40-point margin of victory.

Hammer the spreads of some of these heavy favorites.

Author

Kevin Davis

Kevin Davis is a Betting Analyst at The Game Day residing in Hoboken, NJ. Previously a Bronx resident, Kevin got his start betting on sports at his local Bronx barbershop. When sports betting was legalized across the river in Jersey, Kevin was there on the ground floor making regular trips to the Hoboken PATH station or for soup dumplings in Fort Lee. Previously, Kevin has written for The Action Network, and Vegas Insider.

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