No. 11 USC (2-0) will play its first conference game as a member of the Big Ten when it travels to Ann Arbor to take on No. 18 Michigan (2-1) on Saturday, Sept. 21.
Through two games, the Trojans have looked like College Football Playoff contenders, thanks in large part to a much-improved defense that has stepped up in wins over LSU and Utah State.
The Wolverines haven’t been nearly as inspiring in their national title defense, prompting coach Sherrone Moore into an early-season quarterback change, as Alex Orji will take over for struggling senior Davis Warren.
In preparation for the Trojans’ Big Ten debut, let’s examine the latest betting odds before digging into my USC vs Michigan prediction and best bets.
USC vs Michigan Odds
College Football odds are current as of Monday, Sept. 16, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: USC (-225) vs Michigan (+180)
- Spread: USC -5.5 (-112) vs Michigan +5.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 (-110) / Under 46.5 (-110)
USC vs Michigan Prediction
USC 27, Michigan 17
How much progress has USC’s defense made in Year 1 under DC D’Anton Lynn? We are about to find out.
This game will come down to the Trojans’ ability to stop the run, something they were dreadful at last season. They finished in the bottom 20 nationally, allowing 186.5 rushing yards per game.
The improvement has been noticeable this season, but the sample size is small. USC limited LSU to 113 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry in a 27-20 season-opening win in Las Vegas before holding Utah State to 190 total yards (87 rushing) in a 48-0 victory.
Michigan could pose a different threat than those teams, as this will be a run-heavy game script with a dual-threat quarterback. From what we’ve seen, Orji is very much run first and pass second, so it’ll be vital for USC to stay gap-disciplined as they try to neutralize him and running backs Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings.
While the Wolverines could have some success early in a new-look offense, I think USC will eventually wrangle this one-dimensional attack and win on the road.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
USC vs Michigan Best Bets
Under 46.5 Points (-110)
Unless USC’s defense reverts to the level it played at last season, I don’t see how this game goes Over.
Michigan attempted just 18 passes last week against Arkansas State. It may try even fewer this week with Orji under center, so the game clock should constantly be moving.
Look for the Wolverines to try to shorten this game and win ugly, leading the Under to cash as our best college football bet today.
USC -5.5 (-112)
I don’t think the Trojans will roll the Wolverines like Texas did, but it’s pretty clear this Michigan team doesn’t have the talent it possessed last season.
USC has the much better quarterback in Miller Moss, who should be able to replicate some of the success that Quinn Ewers enjoyed in that Longhorns victory.
The Trojans should win by at least a touchdown as long as their defense doesn’t get carved up by the Michigan rushing attack.
