Two storied college football programs that have struggled in recent years will collide when the 19th-ranked Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida Gators.
The Gators lost their final five games of the 2023 campaign to finish 5-7, missing out on a bowl for the first time since 2017. However, Florida retained head coach Billy Napier, who enters Year 3 firmly on the hot seat after amassing an 11-14 record across his first two seasons in Gainesville.
The same status could apply to Miami’s Mario Cristobal, who has yet to deliver the success he enjoyed in his previous stop at Oregon. The Miami native owns a slightly better record (12-13) than Napier over the same time frame and led the Hurricanes to a 7-6 mark last season.
Which team will start the 2024 campaign on a high note? Let’s dig into the latest Miami vs Florida odds and make a prediction for this fascinating Week 1 rivalry game.
Miami vs Florida Odds
College football odds are current as of Monday, Aug. 26, and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Miami (-142) vs Florida (+120)
- Spread: Miami -2.5 (-115) vs Florida +2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: Over 54 (-110) / Under 54 (-110)
Miami vs Florida Prediction
Miami 27, Florida 20
Is The U back? Only time will tell. However, Cristobal’s squad is built to win now, and the Canes should have enough talent to take care of their in-state rival on Saturday afternoon.
Transfer QB Cam Ward, who threw for 6,829 yards and 48 touchdowns over the last two seasons at Washington State, is a significant upgrade over Tyler Van Dyke (now at Wisconsin) and will benefit from working with Miami’s top two wideouts from a season ago, Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, as well as Houston transfer Sam Brown.
Ward will be joined in the backfield by fellow Pac-12 transfer Damien Martinez, who averaged 6.1 yards per carry and amassed 16 rushing touchdowns in two years at Oregon State. Martinez should benefit from running behind an offensive line returning three starters and adding Indiana transfer Zach Carpenter to what was one of the ACC’s top units last season.
Expect that group to impose its will against a Florida defense that allowed 155.6 rushing yards per game last season — the fourth-most in the SEC.
The Gators return 70% of their offensive production from a season ago, but the departures of leading receiver Ricky Pearsall Jr. (NFL) and talented running back Trevor Etienne (Georgia) will hurt.
I don’t trust Florida QB Graham Mertz, who returns for a sixth college football season, to challenge a Miami secondary that features three new starters and could be a weak point early in the campaign.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Miami vs Florida Best Bets
Miami -2.5 (-115)
Given their recent results, it’s difficult to have conviction about either of these programs. However, Miami has the more talented roster and should be able to earn a season-opening win on the road.
Back the Canes to cover this short spread as one of your college football best bets for Week 1.
Under 26.5 1H Points (-110)
These were two of the best Over teams in college football last season, but I’m backing the first-half Under in this early-season rivalry game.
Miami is integrating many new pieces on offense, so it wouldn’t be shocking if it takes a couple of drives for everyone to get on the same page.
Plus, Florida lost two of its most explosive players in Pearsall and Etienne, meaning the Gators will likely have to chew clock to put points on the board.
I’d recommend waiting to see if a 27 pops between now and kickoff for some extra wiggle room, but this bet still feels like a worthwhile investment.
