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Florida vs Kentucky Predictions | CFB Best Bets

Last Updated: Sep 28, 2023

Kentucky has rolled to an easy 4-0 start to this season, and it will finally be getting its first major test when it hosts No. 22 Florida this Saturday.

For Florida, it’s been something of an up-and-down start to the year, but it picked up a nice win over Tennessee and brings a three-game win streak into Lexington.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this SEC matchup and make some picks.

Florida vs Kentucky Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for the Gators vs Wildcats SEC matchup.


Kentucky has rolled to an easy 4-0 start to this season, and it will finally be getting its first major test when it hosts No. 22 Florida this Saturday.

For Florida, it’s been something of an up-and-down start to the year, but it picked up a nice win over Tennessee and brings a three-game win streak into Lexington.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this SEC matchup and make some picks.

Florida vs Kentucky Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for the Gators vs Wildcats SEC matchup.

NCAAF lines used below for Kentucky vs Florida were current as of Sept. 27 at 8 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Kentucky (-110) • Florida (-110)
  • Spread: Kentucky -1.5 (-110) • Florida +1.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 44 (-110) • Under 44 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Kentucky 22.75, Florida 21.25

The market sees this one as just about as tight as it can be, with the moneyline set at nearly a pick ’em.

Kentucky’s home-field advantage seems to be the difference in the sportsbook’s eyes, giving it a slight edge in what figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

SCORE PICK: Florida 19, Kentucky 16

The Kentucky offense had high hopes coming into this season, but quarterback Devin Leary has been a total disappointment thus far after a strong NC State career.

He’s already thrown five interceptions, despite Kentucky not having played a strong defense yet, and he barely completed half of his passes against lowly Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats won that game, but against a much better Florida defense, it won’t be enough; the mistakes will cost Kentucky in a gritty slugfest.

Florida’s offense won’t do too much on the road, either, but with a cohesive running game through backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, it will be able to control the ball enough to pull out the win.

Florida vs Kentucky Best Bets

Under 44 (-110)

DraftKings • WAGER: 1 unit

In addition to the inherent issues with both of these offenses, they both play at a very low pace, meaning fewer snaps, fewer possessions, and fewer opportunities to score points.

Florida’s offense sits in exactly 100th when it comes to the fastest in the nation by seconds per snap, while Kentucky is even farther down the list at 114th in the same category.

Florida +1.5 (-110)

DraftKings • WAGER: 1 unit

Yes, this may seem close to simply betting the moneyline for the Gators, but we’re given the opportunity to grab a valuable point of spread in a game that figures to be messy and could easily be decided by just a point.

Florida hasn’t been running up the score with big plays, but with 88.2% adjusted completion and a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.5%, Graham Mertz has limited the big mistakes that can be costly in a road environment like this.

That simply hasn’t been the case for Kentucky and Leary, whose mistakes will finally come back to bite them against tougher competition.

Florida vs Kentucky Same-Game Parlay

Florida vs. Kentucky SGP (+335)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: .5 Unit

  • Trevor Etienne Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
  • Devin Leary over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-155)
  • Kentucky Team Total under 22.5 (-110)

Etienne has been the centerpiece of this Florida offense so far, as he’s averaged 6.7 yards per carry. He’s been slightly unlucky to only score twice thus far, but that number should be on the rise in a game in which Florida will be running early and often.

Leary’s turnover issue should only get worse against a higher-caliber defense like Florida’s, and of course, a quarterback’s struggles go hand-in-hand with the under for his team’s total; it’s hard to score points on the road with poor play from your field general.

Best Kentucky Sports Betting Offers

Kentucky sports betting launches Thursday, Sept. 28 – making it the perfect time to bet on UK vs UF.

See what our top sportsbook partners are offering new customers, then place your wagers on this crucial SEC showdown:


NCAAF lines used below for Kentucky vs Florida were current as of Sept. 27 at 8 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Kentucky (-110) • Florida (-110)
  • Spread: Kentucky -1.5 (-110) • Florida +1.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 44 (-110) • Under 44 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Kentucky 22.75, Florida 21.25

The market sees this one as just about as tight as it can be, with the moneyline set at nearly a pick ’em.

Kentucky’s home-field advantage seems to be the difference in the sportsbook’s eyes, giving it a slight edge in what figures to be a low-scoring defensive battle.

Florida vs Kentucky Prediction

SCORE PICK: Florida 19, Kentucky 16

The Kentucky offense had high hopes coming into this season, but quarterback Devin Leary has been a total disappointment thus far after a strong NC State career.

He’s already thrown five interceptions, despite Kentucky not having played a strong defense yet, and he barely completed half of his passes against lowly Vanderbilt.

The Wildcats won that game, but against a much better Florida defense, it won’t be enough; the mistakes will cost Kentucky in a gritty slugfest.

Florida’s offense won’t do too much on the road, either, but with a cohesive running game through backs Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, it will be able to control the ball enough to pull out the win.

Florida vs Kentucky Best Bets

Under 44 (-110)

DraftKings • WAGER: 1 unit

In addition to the inherent issues with both of these offenses, they both play at a very low pace, meaning fewer snaps, fewer possessions, and fewer opportunities to score points.

Florida’s offense sits in exactly 100th when it comes to the fastest in the nation by seconds per snap, while Kentucky is even farther down the list at 114th in the same category.

Florida +1.5 (-110)

DraftKings • WAGER: 1 unit

Yes, this may seem close to simply betting the moneyline for the Gators, but we’re given the opportunity to grab a valuable point of spread in a game that figures to be messy and could easily be decided by just a point.

Florida hasn’t been running up the score with big plays, but with 88.2% adjusted completion and a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.5%, Graham Mertz has limited the big mistakes that can be costly in a road environment like this.

That simply hasn’t been the case for Kentucky and Leary, whose mistakes will finally come back to bite them against tougher competition.

Florida vs Kentucky Same-Game Parlay

Florida vs. Kentucky SGP (+335)

DraftKings Sportsbook • Wager: .5 Unit

  • Trevor Etienne Anytime TD Scorer (-125)
  • Devin Leary over 0.5 interceptions thrown (-155)
  • Kentucky Team Total under 22.5 (-110)

Etienne has been the centerpiece of this Florida offense so far, as he’s averaged 6.7 yards per carry. He’s been slightly unlucky to only score twice thus far, but that number should be on the rise in a game in which Florida will be running early and often.

Leary’s turnover issue should only get worse against a higher-caliber defense like Florida’s, and of course, a quarterback’s struggles go hand-in-hand with the under for his team’s total; it’s hard to score points on the road with poor play from your field general.

Best Kentucky Sports Betting Offers

Kentucky sports betting launches Thursday, Sept. 28 – making it the perfect time to bet on UK vs UF.

See what our top sportsbook partners are offering new customers, then place your wagers on this crucial SEC showdown:

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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