The No. 4 Florida State Seminoles face the No. 15 Louisville Cardinals for the ACC title in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Saturday at 8 p.m. ET.
Louisville is out of the College Football Playoff but can still win its first-ever ACC title, while FSU is 12-0 and pushing for a second CFP berth — although without former Heisman contender Jordan Travis.
Louisville vs Florida State Odds
Track our latest CFB odds for Cardinals vs Seminoles:
NCAAF lines used for Louisville vs Florida State were current as of Nov. 26 at 11:30 p.m. ET on DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Florida State (-180) • Louisville (+150)
- Spread: Florida State -3.5 (-108) • Louisville +3.5 (-112)
- Total Points: Over 51 (-110) • Under 51 (-110)
Even without star quarterback Travis following a season-ending leg injury, Florida State is favored by more than a field goal in this one in part because of Louisville’s loss to Kentucky in its last game.
Louisville vs Florida State Prediction
SCORE PICK: Louisville 26, Florida State 17
It’s hard to understand how Florida State is still the pick after losing Travis for the year.
Even if we take a look at season-long numbers, including Travis’ tenure, the Seminoles are a strong eighth in the country in EPA per play, but the Cardinals – who have not suffered any devastating injuries since building the vast majority of their resume – are right behind at 12th.
Perhaps most importantly, this FSU offense, even with Travis, hasn’t seen many defenses as strong as Louisville’s, which ranks seventh in the country by EPA.
In the Seminoles’ first game with starting quarterback Tate Rodemaker against a Florida team that ranks much closer to average in defensive metrics, they scraped out 24 points thanks in large part to a late flurry.
FSU’s defensive metrics are also a bit inflated from a lack of solid competition. Even so, its run defense doesn’t stack up well with the Louisville ground offense, led by running back Jawhar Jordan.
Not only will Louisville pull off the upset, it will do it in style as Florida State fails to hang around without its star QB.
Louisville vs Florida State Best Bets
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
There’s no way around it: Louisville got caught in a trap game. The Cardinals have never played in an ACC Championship Game before, and they let their minds wander instead of focusing on the task at hand and dropped their regular-season finale against Kentucky.
This is a great spot to buy low on the Cardinals, as that performance was an outlier.
It’s hard to imagine this FSU defense stopping Jordan and the Cardinals’ run game. Its ground defense is ranked just 74th in the country and will also have to contend with second back Isaac Guerendo, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry and has scored eight times.
Under 51 (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
This number is placed a bit more appropriately than the spread, but there’s still value on the table, as the Under gives us access to several key numbers – such as 45 and 48, as well as a push on 51 itself.
Louisville is one of the most run-heavy teams in the country, ranking 38th in run play percentage, which contributes to its place at 103rd in pace of play by seconds per snap.
On the other side of the ball, FSU is generally a pass-first team, but it is still only 82nd in pace.
With Travis out, FSU is not likely to start throwing the ball more, especially against an elite Louisville defense. But it’s also hard to envision it finding success if it is transparently run-heavy, as the Cardinals are a remarkable fifth in the country in EPA per play against the run.
Louisville vs Florida State Same-Game Parlay
Louisville vs Florida State SGP (+270)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
- Louisville +3.5 (-112)
- Under 51 (-110)
We don’t have a ton of same-game parlay options nearly a week ahead of game day, but we have some really good ones nonetheless.
The spread of 3.5 is great protection for the Louisville portion of our wager, as it includes a half-point hook that allows us to win if the Cardinals lose by exactly a field goal. Elsewhere, we will stick with our Under at the excellent number of 51.