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USC vs UConn Predictions

Last Updated: Apr 1, 2024

The final ticket to the 2024 Women’s Final Four will be punched on Monday night when top-seeded USC takes on No. 3 seed UConn in the Elite 8.

The Trojans are in their first regional final since 1994 thanks to a 74-70 victory over Baylor on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Huskies dispatched Duke in a 53-45 defensive slugfest to reach this stage for the 28th time in program history.

Let’s examine the latest USC vs UConn odds and pick our best Elite 8 bets for this intriguing matchup.

USC vs UConn Odds

Spread: UConn -3.5 (-110) • USC +3.5 (-110)

Moneyline: UConn (-180) • USC (+150)

Total: Over 135.5 (-110) • Under 135.5 (-110)

Despite being the lower seed, UConn is a 3.5-point favorite in this matchup against USC, according to the latest NCAAW odds at bet365 Sportsbook.

The Trojans haven’t been an underdog since the Pac-12 Tournament Final against Stanford, where they were 5.5-point underdogs and won the game outright by 13.

The Over/Under for this game is currently sitting at 135.5 points, more than 30 points less than the total expected in the Iowa vs LSU matchup earlier in the evening.

Defense has been the key for the Huskies, who have held each of their tournament opponents to 64 points or fewer and allow just 56.4 points per game.

USC vs UConn Prediction

USC 66, UConn 63

Can UConn slow down JuJu Watkins? I’m not so sure.

USC’s freshman guard delivered her 14th 30-point game of the campaign in the win over Baylor and averages 27 points per game on the season (second nationally behind Caitlin Clark).

The ESPN National Freshman of the Year is astute at getting into the lane and drawing contact — Watkins averages 8.3 free-throw attempts per game, the most in the country. She also has a prolific mid-range jumper and can knock down the three.

She’ll go head-to-head with Huskies guard Paige Bueckers, who is averaging 28 points per game during the tournament and is a bit more efficient from three-point range (41.5% this season).

The problem for UConn is that it doesn’t have the depth of previous years, namely due to injury. Geno Auriemma has limited his rotation to just six players the last two games, so any foul trouble, especially to Bueckers, would be significantly problematic.

USC isn’t particularly deep either, but the Trojans are more battle-tested from playing in the Pac-12 and potentially have the best player on the court.

USC vs UConn Best Bets

USC ML (+150) vs UConn

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

USC doesn’t have the perennial presence or prestige in the women’s game that UConn does, and I feel like the Trojans are getting disrespected in the market because of it.

These two teams are pretty evenly matched, so taking the unproven higher seed at much more appealing odds is the only choice for my best women’s college basketball bet today.

Under 135.5 Total Points (-110)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

While Bueckers and Watkins both have the potential to score 30-plus points, there isn’t enough ancillary help to get Over this total.

Both teams have been stout defensively during the tournament and throughout the year — UConn allows 56.4 points per game while USC surrenders 62 — so this should be a lower-scoring game environment.

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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