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South Carolina vs NC State Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Apr 3, 2024

No. 1 seed South Carolina (36-0) will look to move within a game of a perfect season when it takes on No. 3 seed NC State (31-6) in the opener of the 2024 Women’s Final Four on Friday night in Cleveland.

The Gamecocks had the same record at this stage last season but fell to Caitlin Clark and No. 2 seed Iowa 77-73. Can the Wolfpack spark a similar upset in their first Final Four trip since 1998?

Let’s examine the latest NCAAW odds and pick out our best South Carolina vs NC State bets for this Women’s Final Four matchup.

South Carolina vs NC State Odds

Spread: South Carolina -11.5 (-110) • NC State +11.5 (-110)

Moneyline: South Carolina (-800) • NC State (+550)

Total: Over 139.5 (-110) • Under 139.5 (-110)

South Carolina is playing in its fourth consecutive Final Four, so it’s no surprise that Dawn Staley’s squad is a significant favorite over a relative newcomer in NC State.

The latest spread at DraftKings Sportsbook sees the Gamecocks installed as 11.5-point favorites, which still falls well below their nation-leading average point differential (+29.6).

The Over/Under for this game is currently 139.5 total points, 23 fewer than the Iowa vs UConn matchup is projected for later in the evening.

Defense has been key to both teams’ success this season, with NC State and South Carolina limiting opponents to 60.3 and 56.0 points per game, respectively.

South Carolina vs NC State Prediction

South Carolina 79, NC State 63

The most impressive thing about South Carolina’s squad is its balance and depth.

Coach Staley typically gives 10-plus minutes to nine different players, with each making an impact on both ends of the court.

That said, Gamecocks leading scorer Kamilla Cardoso (14.1 points, 9.4 rebounds per game) is a handful in the paint and should have an advantage against an NC State frontcourt that doesn’t have the size or athleticism to match.

The Wolfpack are heavily reliant on the backcourt duo of Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers, with James bearing the bulk of the scoring load in the tournament at an average of 24.3 points per game.

The junior guard was particularly devastating from three-point range in NC State’s Elite 8 win over Texas, connecting on seven of nine attempts en route to a game-high 27 points despite the Moda Center’s mismatching arcs.

The Wolfpack will need another superb shooting night if they want to end South Carolina’s undefeated season.

South Carolina vs NC State Best Bets

South Carolina -11.5 (-110) vs NC State

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

South Carolina is a team on a mission after losing its perfect season at this stage last year, and I don’t see any chance of history repeating itself.

The question is whether NC State can make enough shots to keep this game competitive.

The Gamecocks have won three of their four tournament games by 12 points or more, with the lone miss coming in their Sweet 16 game against Indiana. South Carolina led that game by 17 at halftime and took its foot dangerously off the gas.

I think Dawn Staley’s squad will have learned from that experience, and NC State probably can’t shoot 16-35 (45.7%) from three as it did across two games last weekend.

South Carolina defends the three at a top-20 rate nationally, holding opponents to 26.9% shooting from the perimeter.

Give me the top team in the country to cover this large spread as my best women’s college basketball bet today.

Over 139.5 Total Points (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

South Carolina averages 85.6 points per game, the third-most in the country, with seven players scoring eight or more per game.

That depth makes it less likely that one off-shooting night derails our bet. Plus, the Gamecocks have scored 70-plus points in 34 of 36 games this season, so they should account for at least half the total.

The Wolfpack don’t have that luxury. They average 12.9 bench points per game (294th nationally) compared to South Carolina’s 33.0 (2nd).

We will need NC State’s starters to stay out of foul trouble and knock down at least a handful of threes.

This may come down to the wire, but I lean toward the Over.

Author

John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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