UConn vs Duke Predictions

Last Updated: Mar 29, 2024

The final game of the Women’s Sweet 16 will see No. 3 seed UConn take on No. 7 seed Duke on Saturday night at the Moda Center in Portland, OR.

The Blue Devils are the lowest remaining seed in the tournament after erasing a 16-point deficit in their second-round victory over Big Ten regular-season champion Ohio State.

Can Duke spring another upset against perennial powerhouse UConn?

Let’s examine the latest UConn vs Duke betting odds and pick out some best bets for this contest.

UConn vs Duke Odds

  • Spread: UConn -8 (-115) • Duke +8 (-105)
  • Moneyline: UConn (-450) • Duke (+350)
  • Total: Over 126.5 (-110) • Under 126.5 (-110)

According to the latest NCAAW odds at bet365 Sportsbook, the Huskies have been installed as eight-point favorites over the Blue Devils.

That won’t phase Duke, especially after it won as an 8.5-point underdog in the previous round.

The Over/Under for this matchup is currently sitting at 126.5 points, making it by far the lowest total of any game in the Women’s Sweet 16.

These are two of the top defensive teams in the country, each surrendering less than 60 points per game, so a low-scoring slugfest isn’t out of the question.

UConn vs Duke Prediction

UConn 67, Duke 62

This game should come down to the wire.

Although UConn has the second-best point differential in women’s college basketball (+23.9) behind South Carolina, it spent the season dominating teams in the Big East that aren’t quite on Duke’s level.

The Huskies are the last remaining team from the Big East and are arguably too reliant on star guard Paige Bueckers to carry them through games. The good news for Geno Auriemma’s squad is that Bueckers is more than capable of taking on that role.

The junior stuffed the stat sheet on the opening weekend, scoring 60 points, collecting 21 rebounds, dishing out 13 assists, and collecting seven steals, all while turning the ball over just four times in 75 minutes of action.

Bueckers will go head to head with Reigan Richardson, who exploded with 25- and 28-point outings in Duke’s first two tournament games despite averaging just 12.4 points per game on the year.

The Blue Devils generally boast a more balanced attack, which is more sustainable this time of year. However, this is their first Sweet 16 trip since 2018, so the experience advantage lies with the Huskies.

UConn also has the best player on the court, so it should move on to the Elite 8.

UConn vs Duke Best Bets

UConn 1H -4.5 (-110) vs Duke

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Blue Devils have been a second-half team during the tournament, overcoming halftime deficits in each of their two games.

On the other hand, UConn has raced out to double-digit halftime leads in each of its games.

I see this game playing out similarly for both, with UConn taking early advantage of a Duke team that may feel some jitters of the occasion.

Give me the Huskies to cover a shorter spread at the half as my best women’s college basketball bet today.

Over 126.5 Total Points (-110)

bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Totals in the NCAA Tournament always scare me since teams are likely to foul at the end as long as the game is relatively close, which I expect this one to be.

With that said, I’ll take my chances with the Over.

Although these defenses allow fewer than 60 points per game, there should be enough offense from Bueckers and Richardson to get us Over this relatively low total.


John Arlia

Before joining The Game Day, John served as the National Writer for the United Soccer League, where he primarily covered the USL Championship out of the league’s headquarters in Tampa, FL. A devout soccer fan, John attended the men’s World Cups in Brazil and Russia and can’t wait for the 2026 edition to come to North America. Having also written for Sporting News Canada since getting his master’s from the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism at ASU, John has acquired a diverse sporting background, but considers football, golf, and soccer his three strong suits.

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