March Madness kicks off this week, and we have several intriguing games to look forward to. In the Midwest region, the San Diego State Aztecs (8) will face the Creighton Bluejays (9) at 7:27 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 17.
San Diego enters this game with a 23-8 record while Creighton boasts a 22-11 record on the season. Neither of these teams won their respective conferences, but both performed well in conference play with a 13-4 record in the Mountain West Conference for the Aztecs and a 12-7 record in the Big East for the Bluejays.
San Diego State vs Creighton Odds
San Diego State vs Creighton CBB gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 15.
- Moneyline: San Diego State (-140) vs Creighton (+120)
- ATS: San Diego State -2.5 (-110) vs Creighton +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 119.5 (-110) / Under 119.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: San Diego State 61, Creighton 58.5
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San Diego State vs Creighton Prediction
According to KenPom, this showdown is pretty lopsided for a No. 8 vs No. 9 seed matchup. The Aztecs are the 22nd-ranked team in those rankings, while Creighton comes in at 53rd.
It’s no secret that neither of these teams is known for their offense, as the winner could be whoever reaches 50 points first. Both teams averaged fewer than 70 points per game this season, with San Diego State at 65.3 PPG and Creighton at 69.0 PPG.
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Three-point shooting is always critical in the tournament, and the Aztecs have the clear edge in that department. San Diego State shot 35.8% from downtown, while Creighton finished at a dismal 30.7%.
Given how strong both clubs are defensively, the Aztecs’ ability to knock down shots from beyond the arc gives them the upper hand in what could be a tight, low-scoring game.
San Diego State vs Creighton Score Pick
San Diego State 57, Creighton 52
The loss of point guard Ryan Nembhard has loomed large for Creighton as they have lost three of their last six games, including the Big East tournament championship against Villanova. The Bluejays only lost by a score of 54-48, but their inability to score and make shots led to their demise.
I believe we’ll see a similar outcome here, as San Diego State led the country in defensive rating and allowed the second-fewest points per game (57.7) in the nation.
San Diego State vs Creighton Best Bets
San Diego State -2.5 (-110) at Caesars
WAGER: 1 Unit
Both teams have produced similar records against the spread, as San Diego State is 17-14 ATS while Creighton is a nearly identical 17-14-2. But with the Aztecs being the superior defensive and three-point shooting team, I believe they’ll emerge victorious in this one.
San Diego State is led by Matt Bradley, who is the only player on the team averaging more than nine points per game. Despite Creighton having four players average double-digit points during the regular season, Nembhard was one of them and he won’t be available.
Lay the points with the Aztecs for our CBB bet of the day and hope their defense comes to play on Thursday.
UNDER 119.5 Total Points (-110) at Caesars
WAGER: 1 Unit
As mentioned, neither of these teams is going to light up the scoreboard. That’s especially true given the quality of both defenses, which will suppress scoring on both sides.
The Aztecs’ defense is among the best in the nation, while the Bluejays yielded just 65.9 points per game and have one of the stronger units in the country. These two teams combined to have an Over/Under record of 23-40-1, so I’m pretty confident that we’ll see a low final score on Thursday.