To the surprise of many, Michigan snuck into the tournament field after an incredibly underwhelming season. After the collapse against Indiana, I didn’t expect Michigan to get a bye.
But they did, and somehow the 11-seed Wolverines are laying over two points against a dangerous 6-seed Colorado State team.
Simply put, I’m not buying it.
Colorado State vs Michigan Odds
Colorado State vs Michigan CBB gameday odds are provided by Caesars and current as of 12 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 15.
- Moneyline: Colorado State (+125) vs Michigan (-145)
- Spread: Colorado State +2.5 (-110) vs Michigan -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: Over 139.5 (-110) / Under 139.5 (-110)
- Implied Score: Michigan 71, Colorado State 68.5
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Colorado State vs Michigan Prediction
The Wolverine offense is fairly productive, but the defense is pathetic. Particularly on the perimeter, where the young Michigan wings are going to have trouble containing Colorado State star David Roddy.
Michigan ranks outside the top 200 in efficiency in defending pick-and-roll sets, off-screen sets, cutters, and isolation sets. Niko Medved simply has to put the ball in Roddy’s hands and he will cook the Wolverines every which way.
Michigan will put up points, and it’ll be hard to stop Hunter Dickinson down low. But the Rams have advantages across the rest of the roster, and that’ll be too much in the end.
Additionally, I’m questioning Juwan Howard’s coaching ability at the moment. No good coach allows that kind of collapse in the biggest season of the game.
Michigan is lucky to be here, but is being priced otherwise. I’m looking for that kind of inefficiency in my March Madness bets.
Colorado State vs Michigan Score Pick
Colorado State 80, Michigan 70
I’m expecting a high-scoring affair with CSU winning wire-to-wire. It won’t be a blowout, but it will be convincing. Medved will keep consistent pressure on the Wolverines defense with Roddy-led ball-screens, and Howard won’t have an answer for it.
- Print your 2022 March Madness bracket.
It’ll take a truly special performance from Dickinson to get over the hump in this one. I don’t expect that to happen.
Colorado State vs Michigan Best Bet
Colorado State +2.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
This line is downright disrespectful to the Rams.
Colorado State is one of the best offenses in the country, and the Rams are battle-tested after playing in a supremely talented Mountain West this season. CSU also went 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season.
Meanwhile, Michigan underperformed in a very overrated Big Ten conference.
KenPom makes this spread Colorado State -1, which means there’s plenty of value with Colorado State.
Colorado State Moneyline (+125) at Caesars
Wager: .5 Units
I’ve had this game circled for a while, and I’m looking to get the Rams at anything better than (+125).
If I were to guess, based on some advanced analytics sites, Colorado State wins this game more than half the time. I think this is the classic example of the wrong team being favored, and I’d like to bet on the right team.
