After upsetting a pair of blue bloods in the Sweet 16 Thursday night, No. 4 seed Alabama and No. 6 seed Clemson will clash in the West Regional Final on Saturday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.
The Crimson Tide punched a ticket to the program’s second-ever Elite 8 by knocking off top-seeded North Carolina 89-87 in a seesaw contest that had 13 ties and 12 lead changes.
Earlier in the evening, the Tigers dispatched second-seeded Arizona 77-72, leading essentially from start to finish against a Wildcats squad that shot just 37.3% from the field and 17.9% from three.
Let’s look at the latest Alabama vs Clemson betting odds and pick out some best bets for this Elite 8 matchup.
Alabama vs Clemson Odds
Although Clemson defeated Alabama 85-77 in Tuscaloosa in the non-conference season on Nov. 28, the Tigers have opened as 3.5-point underdogs per our NCAAB odds for this much more meaningful rematch.
The Over/Under is set at 164.5 points, which isn’t far off the total from that first matchup and suggests that this game will be played closer to Alabama’s preferred pace.
Alabama vs Clemson Prediction
Alabama 87, Clemson 79
This game will feature a significant contrast in styles.
Alabama wants to play an up-tempo game and will take a ton of three-pointers. The Crimson Tide play at the nation’s 10th-fastest adjusted pace per Ken Pom and fire up 30 three-point attempts per game (fourth-most nationally).
On the other hand, Clemson is happy to slow things down and operate its offense through PJ Hall in the post. The Tigers are 257th nationally in adjusted tempo and take about seven fewer threes per game than the Tide.
- Check out all of our Elite 8 predictions.
When these two teams met earlier this season, we saw a mix of both. Alabama scored 17 fast break points to Clemson’s zero, but the Tigers outscored the Tide 32-22 in the paint and made the same number of threes (11) despite taking 14 fewer attempts.
Can Clemson replicate that three-point efficiency with a spot in the Final Four on the line? And perhaps more importantly, can its defense continue to agitate opposing shooters?
The Tigers’ first three tournament opponents have combined to shoot 35.1% from the field and a wretched 14-75 (18.6%) from three-point range. Throughout the season, opponents shot 41.2% from the field and 32.6% from three against the Tigers, meaning there’s regression coming for them at some point.
If it arrives from the nation’s top-scoring offense (90.7 ppg), Clemson could be in trouble.
Alabama vs Clemson Best Bets
Alabama -3 (-105) vs Clemson
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
Both teams played at a very high level on Thursday night, but I trust Alabama to make the necessary adjustments from the first meeting to get its revenge.
Nate Oats’ squad showed it can be gritty and defend in crunch time, and I expect the Tide to be more efficient offensively, especially from three-point range, than Clemson’s prior opponents, making this my best college basketball bet today.
Over 164.5 Total Points (-110)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
This is an extremely high total for a game of such magnitude, but Alabama isn’t going to change its style of play.
The Crimson Tide and Tar Heels were on pace for 200 total points at halftime of their Sweet 16 contest and easily cleared this number.
While Clemson isn’t as willing to play at UNC’s pace (the Tar Heels ranked 42nd nationally in adjusted tempo), these two teams combined for 97 points in the second half of their regular-season meeting, and the Tigers accounted for 52 of those.
Alabama’s frenetic pace and reliance on the three ball will organically create some easy transition opportunities for Chase Hunter and Co. from long rebounds, meaning it’s more likely we see this game played at the Tide’s preferred pace.
If that’s the case, this game should be played in the 170s.
