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WNBA Playoffs Predictions 2024

Last Updated: Oct 2, 2023

Even before the 2023 WNBA season began, it looked as though the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty were destined to duke it out in the WNBA Finals. The Aces made true to their promise late last week, and the Liberty followed suit over the weekend.

The league’s two heaviest hitters will now battle for superteam supremacy and a shot at the WNBA title. Game 1 is set for Sunday, Oct. 8, at 3 p.m. ET, with a potential winner-take-all Game 5 slated for Friday, Oct. 20.

Let’s take a look at the latest WNBA Finals odds and preview this series between the Aces and Liberty.

WNBA Finals Odds 2024

All WNBA odds are current as of Monday, Oct. 2, at 10 a.m. and courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Las Vegas Aces (-210)
  • New York Liberty (+170)

The Aces have ranked above the Liberty throughout the entire postseason, so it’s no surprise to see them atop the list now that the two will finally meet in the WNBA Finals.

Aces vs Liberty Series Prediction

No. 1 Aces (-210) vs No. 2 Liberty (+170)

The Aces fell to the Liberty 3-2 in their regular-season series, including the Commissioner’s Cup title game. Despite that razor-thin edge, the average margin of victory in each contest comes out to just over 19 points.

Las Vegas is arguably the best team this league has ever seen, winning a record 34 games this year. The Aces led the league in both offensive and defensive rating, sit atop the standings in countless metrics, and have a star-studded roster featuring perhaps the best player in the game today, A’ja Wilson.

New York was the lone squad that posed a legitimate threat to Las Vegas this year. No other team beat the Aces more than once, and none came close to making them look as vulnerable as the Liberty did in their three wins.

Several individual matchups will determine this series — more than I have space to write about — but the one that should have the most significant impact is the battle between Wilson and Jonquel Jones.

Jones dominated the paint (specifically in the Commissioner’s Cup game) and played a large role in limiting Wilson’s offensive output, which the Aces are dependent on. Jones is entering the WNBA Finals averaging 16.5 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks through six playoff games.

The star power in this series is overwhelming, and whichever group shines brightest is likely to win the series. Las Vegas has the all-important home-court advantage and the better overall record, but New York’s track record against the Aces is enough for me to give the Liberty the nod.

Aces vs Liberty Series Pick

Liberty in 5 games

The scoring margins may not have been close, but these two teams were separated by a hair throughout the regular season. This is essentially the challenge that each team has been preparing for since the year began, and I don’t see any outcome in which this series doesn’t go the distance.

WNBA Finals Best Bets

Liberty: Win WNBA Finals (+170)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

As (-210) favorites, it’s hard to justify backing the Aces to win the Finals considering how they performed against the Liberty this season. Despite what the odds suggest, this isn’t going to be an easy series for either team involved.

The main challenge for New York will be winning on the road, where Las Vegas went 19-2 this season. The Liberty won the Commissioner’s Cup title game on the Aces’ home court, but they lost their two other matchups at Michelob Ultra Arena.

If the Liberty can steal home court from Las Vegas in Game 1 or 2, they’ll be in a great position to pull off the upset and win the WNBA Finals. Go for the value at (+170) and make this your WNBA bet of the day.

Jonquel Jones: WNBA Finals MVP (+2500)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.25 Units

Breanna Stewart was named the WNBA MVP for her stellar regular season, but she’s yet to find her footing in the postseason. Stewie was also mostly held in check in her meetings with the Aces this season, so New York may need someone else to step up against Las Vegas.

Sabrina Ionescu has the next-shortest odds among the Liberty at (+1400), though I’m more inclined to ride with Jones on her current hot streak. Her two-way ability could easily outweigh Ionescu’s offensive contributions if Jones can effectively limit Wilson and the Aces in the paint and on the glass.

At (+2500), this is an excellent price to get on a player who has arguably been New York’s best to this point in the playoffs. The Liberty will not win this series without her playing on an MVP-caliber level.

Author

Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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