Who will emerge victorious from the 2022 WNBA Playoffs? The answer to that question will soon be answered, as the WNBA Finals are set to begin this weekend.
The semifinals delivered two incredibly exciting matchups between the Aces and Storm and Sky and Sun. Las Vegas put away Seattle on the road in Sue Bird‘s final game, while the Sun upset the Sky with a shocking fourth-quarter run in a winner-takes-all Game 5 in Chicago.
Below, we’ll be taking a closer look at this WNBA Finals series and offering up our predictions for how we see it playing out. Then, we’ll provide our best bets that you can make ahead of the action.
All WNBA gameday odds are current as of Friday, Sept. 9 at 10 a.m. ET.
Las Vegas Aces vs Connecticut Sun Series Prediction
It’s not a huge surprise to see the Aces here. Las Vegas was the league’s best team for virtually the entire season, and their victory in the Commissioner’s Cup was evidence of that. Now, we’ll see if Becky Hammon‘s squad can secure the WNBA title in her first year as head coach.
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On the other side is the Connecticut Sun, who were defeated by the Washington Mystics in their most recent trip to the WNBA Finals in 2019. After facing a 2-1 deficit against the Sky in the semifinals, Connecticut rallied to win back-to-back elimination games and advance to the final round of the playoffs.
The regular season can tell us a lot about how we can expect a series to go, and Las Vegas went 2-1 against Connecticut this year. Each win came by exactly eight points, with Vegas winning once at home and on the road. Connecticut earned its lone victory by seven points.
Fittingly, these two teams are elite at what they set out to do. Connecticut is the best two-way team in the WNBA, ranking second in both offensive and defensive rating, while Las Vegas plays at the fastest tempo in the league and boasts the best offensive rating.
With that said, the Aces aren’t exactly pushovers on defense. They may give up the most three-point attempts in the league, but a big part of that has to do with the fact that 2022 WNBA MVP and Defensive Player of the Year A’ja Wilson is stationed near the paint.
Wilson has been a dominant rim protector and glass-cleaner this season, averaging 1.9 blocks and a career-high 9.4 rebounds per game. She’s been even more effective in the playoffs, bumping her numbers up to 2.3 blocks and 10.8 boards.
Las Vegas is the better team overall, and I expect them to win this series. If Connecticut is going to get the job done, though, it’ll be because they find a way to dominate the Aces in the paint. The Sun ranked first in two-pointers made during the regular season, with Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones leading the way.
I’m not anticipating any blowouts, but I do believe the Aces will take this series and earn the championship trophy in relatively quick fashion.
Aces vs Sun Series Pick
Aces in 4 Games
WNBA Finals Best Bets
Aces Defeat Sun 3-1 (+290) at FanDuel Sportsbook
There’s not much value in picking the Aces to win this series outright since they’re currently favored at (-290) odds. It would take a lot of juice to make that pick profitable, and with the way the Sun rallied to defeat the Sky, I’m not comfortable enoug to lay that type of wager on Las Vegas.
Instead, we’re going to give the Sun a game and pick thes Aces to win by a 3-1 margin. This is the second-most likely outcome according to our WNBA odds, with a Vegas sweep just barely edging it out.
I’m expecting the Aces to overwhelm the Sun with their fast-paced offense and elite three-point shooting, and I feel that they could be particularly effective in doing so in the first two games of the series since the Sun have gone the distance with each of their playoff opponents thus far.
Connecticut should bounce back when the series heads to Uncasville. This team has too much talent to be swept on their home floor. However, I don’t think they’ll be able to force a Game 5, and the Aces will wrap up the title in four.
