The Las Vegas Aces (30-5) will travel to take on the New York Liberty (27-7) in the final regular-season meeting between the top two teams in the WNBA at Barclays Center (7 p.m. ET).
The sides have split the previous four matchups. Las Vegas dominated the first contest and won the most recent on Aug. 17, while New York delivered a 38-point beatdown on Aug. 6 before winning the Commissioner’s Cup Championship on Aug. 15.
Home-court advantage gives the Liberty the upper hand, but anything can happen when these two take the floor.
Below, I’ll break down the latest Liberty vs Aces odds and provide my best bets and predictions ahead of the action.
Aces vs Liberty Odds
WNBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Monday, Aug. 28, at 9 a.m. ET and were found at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Moneyline: Aces (+100) • Liberty (-120)
- Spread: Aces +1 (-110) • Liberty -1 (-110)
- Total Points: Over 173.5 (-110) • Under 173.5 (-110)
This marks the first time this season that the Liberty will be favored against the Aces, albeit marginally. The total has decreased slightly since these groups last saw each other, from 176.5 to 173.5 points.
Aces vs Liberty Prediction
Liberty 85, Aces 77
Despite their stellar record, the Aces have slipped in recent weeks, going just 6-4 over their last 10 (including the Commissioner’s Cup Championship). Should they lose on Monday night, it’ll mark their first losing streak of the season, as Las Vegas was defeated 78-62 by the Washington Mystics on Saturday.
New York has lost just once since July 30, but it came to the Aces on Aug. 17. Their meetings with Las Vegas have yet to be closely contested in the slightest, with the average margin of victory standing at roughly 22 points.
Despite that, this could be the nail-biter we’ve anticipated between these prospective WNBA Finals favorites. Each side surely has a better understanding of what to expect from the other, having played four games against the other, and that sense of familiarity should make for a more competitive contest.
The deciding factor is the performance of Aces star A’ja Wilson. She tied the WNBA’s single-game scoring record with 53 points on Aug. 22, but in four matchups with the Liberty, she’s averaging 13.8 points per game.
Aces vs Liberty Best Bets
Liberty -1 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
As an alternative to this bet, you can take the Liberty to win outright at (-115) odds, but I’d rather go with the (slight) value on the spread. Expect a closer result this time, but given how these matchups have gone thus far, a one-point victory seems unlikely.
I’m backing New York for a handful of reasons, but one of the largest has to be due to home-court advantage. Liberty fans packed the house the last time the Aces came to visit, and New York delivered a 38-point victory as a result.
Las Vegas is also slightly worse on the road this season, going 14-4 compared to 16-2 at home (including the Commissioner’s Cup game). The Aces’ otherwise incredible defense hasn’t traveled well, as Las Vegas allows 83.7 points on the road to just 76.5 at home.
It’ll be competitive, but I’ll continue backing the Liberty until Wilson figures out this New York defense. Lock them in to cover this one-point spread with your WNBA bet of the day.
Under 173.5 (-110)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
All but one meeting between the Aces and Liberty has gone Under this total this season, and generally, they’ve been significantly Under. Despite having the top two offenses in the league, only one can seem to get it going at a time.
The first matchup went Over this total at 179 points, but the others have come in at 160, 145, and 163, respectively. The total for tonight’s contest has come down to 173.5, but based on recent results, that still appears to be set a touch too high.
I’m looking for a moderately high-scoring contest that finishes somewhere around the 160s, but I expect each team to lean heavily on their defense in the second half and keep this one Under. WNBA MVP odds leader Breanna Stewart has also struggled to score against this group.
Aces vs Liberty Prop Bets
Aces: Under 87.5 Points (-120)
Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
The Aces have the most efficient offense in the WNBA, but haven’t been nearly as deadly against the Liberty. Las Vegas is averaging just 77.5 points through four games against New York, with the Over hitting at this number in half of them.
Rebounding will be paramount for the Liberty to keep the Aces from having an effective night on offense. They’ve dominated the glass in their wins, but the margin has been much closer in losses.
