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Liberty vs Aces Game 4 Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 16, 2023

Game 3 of the WNBA Finals was an unexpected turning point. The New York Liberty were in command from start to finish and came away with their first win of the series, while Las Vegas Aces guard Chelsea Gray suffered a devastating foot injury that could keep her off the floor the rest of the way.

The Aces are already without Candace Parker (foot) and are short on depth, making Gray’s injury a potentially series-altering development. If she ends up being unable to go, the Liberty will have a chance to become the first team in league history to overcome a 2-0 Finals deficit.

Game 4 of the WNBA Finals will begin on Wednesday, Oct. 18, at 8 p.m. ET. Below, I’ll break down the latest Aces vs Liberty odds and provide my best bets and predictions ahead of the action.

Garrett Chorpenning’s WNBA Finals Betting Record: 6-6, -0.7 Units

Aces vs Liberty Game 4 Odds

WNBA odds used for these best bets are current as of Monday, Oct. 16, at 10 a.m. ET and were found at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Aces (+120) • Liberty (-142)
  • Spread: Aces +2.5 (-110) • Liberty -2.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 169.5 (-110) • Under 169.5 (-110)

The Liberty are listed as favorites for the first time this series, entering Game 4 with a 2.5-point edge over the Aces. Additionally, the Over/Under has dropped from 172.5 points to 169.5.

Aces vs Liberty Game 4 Prediction

Liberty 89, Aces 66

It’s difficult to overstate just how valuable Gray is to the Aces. She may not be their best player, but as the reigning WNBA Finals MVP, it’s clear that she’s the engine that drives this prolific offense.

Las Vegas has also utilized a six-player rotation throughout the postseason, with Alysha Clark standing out as the only bench player earning double-digit minutes per game. To say their already lackluster depth will be challenged moving forward is an understatement.

Considering the circumstances, I’m projecting a blowout in Game 4. A’ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, and Jackie Young can only do so much without Gray, and New York proved that it has the physical edge in this series with its dominant defensive showing in Game 3.

So long as the Liberty can press forward and take advantage of the opportunity at hand, they’ll be in an excellent position to force a winner-take-all Game 5 in Las Vegas.

Aces vs Liberty Game 4 Best Bets

Liberty -2.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Liberty moneyline may be the safer bet at (-142) odds, but every meeting between these teams this season has been decided by at least nine points. With Gray sidelined, I fully expect that trend to continue.

Jonquel Jones has also had a phenomenal series, averaging 21.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks per game. She’s dominated the paint on offense and played a key role in limiting Wilson to just 4-of-16 shooting in Game 3.

New York will have the edge on both ends of the floor in Game 4, making this my WNBA bet of the day.

Under 169.5 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Game 3 finished with 160 total points, and the Aces’ offensive struggles on the road continued. Through eight playoff appearances, Las Vegas is averaging 95 points in six home games and just 68.5 in two away matchups.

The Liberty will almost certainly get theirs in Game 4, but the same blanket statement can’t be made about the Aces — especially not without Gray. The Under is the right play here.

Aces vs Liberty Game 4 Prop Bets

Aces: Under 83.5 (+100)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 2 Units

Getting plus-odds on this prop is pretty staggering. As mentioned above, Las Vegas’ offense has not traveled well in the playoffs, and the expected absence of Gray will further exacerbate those struggles.

Even with Gray in the lineup, the Aces struggled to meet this mark in two regular-season meetings in New York, scoring 61 and 85 points, respectively.

Double Result: NYL/NYL (+116)

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Liberty took a slim three-point lead into the break in Game 3 before pulling away in the second half for a 14-point victory. We’ll need the same to happen again for this bet to cash.

At plus-odds, I’m all over this prop. The Aces won’t be able to keep up with New York on offense out of the gate, and the Liberty are likely to earn the victory as well.

Author

Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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