Warriors vs Mavericks Props for Game 5 | Best Player Prop Bets & NBA Playoffs Odds

Last Updated: May 26, 2022

Game 4 of the NBA Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks offered up a surprising turn of events, as Dallas controlled the contest from start to finish in a 119-109 win. The series now stands at 3-1 in favor of Golden State.

If you bet any Overs on Warriors players in Game 4, you likely had a tough day. Stephen Curry led Golden State in scoring with just 20 points, while the team as a whole went 10-of-28 (35.7%) from behind the three-point line.

On the other hand, Luka Doncic nearly turned in a triple-double for the Mavericks, while role players Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock each scored 18+ points in the victory.

As our attention turns to Game 5, here are our best NBA prop bets for this critical matchup.

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, May 25, at 5 p.m. ET.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Player Props

Jalen Brunson, Mavericks: OVER 19.5 Points (-120)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Mavericks guard Jalen Brunson has been a consistent scoring threat throughout the playoffs, and that’s continued in this series. Through the first four games, he’s averaging 20 points per game on 49.2% shooting from the field and 45.0% from three-point range.

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Brunson has hit the Over twice on this prop in the series with 31 points in Game 2 and 20 points in Game 3. He likely could have done it again in Game 4, but Dallas was more focused on feeding Finney-Smith and Bullock along the perimeter since they were hot.

I don’t expect Brunson to take a back seat again in Game 5. He’ll need to score at least 20 points to put pressure on Golden State’s defense, and there’s a solid chance he does so in our NBA bet of the day.

Stephen Curry, Warriors: OVER 27.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Curry had an uncharacteristic performance in Game 4, scoring just 20 points and going only 2-of-5 from beyond the arc. His five three-point attempts were the fewest of the postseason for him, as he’d been taking nearly 10 threes per game in this series.

On the plus side, we have an opportunity to buy low on Curry’s scoring total for Game 5. He’s averaging 28 points per game at home this postseason and has already scored 28+ points eight times in these playoffs, including twice in this series.

In a closeout game, I’m looking for Curry to light it up on his home floor and send the Mavericks packing with a big performance.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Game Props

Warriors Cover -1.5 3Q Spread (-120)

WAGER: 2 Units

This bet finally failed to hit in Game 4 as Dallas won its first third quarter of the series, 37-23.

Even so, I’m more than prepared to call this event an anomaly. Golden State has been phenomenal in third quarters all season long, and it makes sense that Dallas was hot out of the break in a do-or-die game, especially since they were playing at home.

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With the series returning to San Francisco and the Warriors getting the opportunity to eliminate the Mavericks on their home floor, I’m banking on a return to normalcy in the third quarter. Look for them to play their best basketball in the frame again and cover this 1.5-point spread.

Warriors OVER 111.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Warriors are up against a tough defense in this series, but they’ve still done well to score the ball. Golden State is averaging 114 points per game, which is 9.3 more points than Dallas allowed per game during the regular season.

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This is an incredibly important game for the Warriors. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit in NBA history, and with each additional game that the Mavericks win, they’ll have a growing belief that they’ll be the first.

It’s time for Golden State to shut the door on Dallas. The best way to do that is by coming out firing and never looking back.

PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Props

Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks was likely a tough one for prop bettors. Dallas had a poor shooting night from three-point range, and several of the Mavericks’ role players failed to deliver in terms of scoring.

If you tailed our best bets for Game 3, you had a decent success rate. Klay Thompson cashed the Over on his points prop, and Golden State covered the third quarter spread once again. However, we were off in betting the Under on Luka Doncic‘s points prop, and the Warriors hit the Over on their team total by a point.

Let’s see if we can have better luck with our best NBA prop bets heading into Game 4 on Tuesday.

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Monday, May 23, at 4 p.m. ET.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Player Props

Andrew Wiggins, Warriors: OVER 16.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

We’re finally buying in on Andrew Wiggins.

The All-Star forward has been terrific against Dallas and is coming off his best performance of the postseason after notching 27 points and 11 rebounds in Game 3. In the series, he’s now averaging 20.7 points per game on 47.1% shooting from the field and 38.9% from beyond the arc.

This points prop isn’t a bad number to buy at, especially since he’s scored at least 16 points in every game of this series and eight of his last nine playoff games. Free throws could be a concern, as he’s shooting just 58.7% from the stripe in the postseason, but he’s only taking just 3.3 attempts per game and isn’t leaving too many points on the board.

Wiggins deserves more recognition for how he’s played against the Mavericks, and until he gets it, betting the Over on his points prop could be a wise choice for our NBA bet of the day.

Stephen Curry, Warriors: OVER 3.5 Made 3-Pointers (-145)

WAGER: 1 Unit

After a slow start to the playoffs, Stephen Curry has finally found his stroke against Dallas. After connecting on just 35.9% of his looks from deep in the first two rounds of the postseason, he’s gone 14-of-29 (48.3%) since.

The main number to pay attention to here is Curry’s attempts. He’s hoisted at least nine threes in every game against the Mavericks and has hit the Over in three of his last four games, so with that kind of volume he’s a good bet for the Over.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Game Props

Warriors Cover -1.5 3Q Spread (+115)

WAGER: 2 Units

This prop has hit in all three games of the series thus far, and we have no plans to stop betting it. Golden State has long been dominant in third quarters — particularly in the playoffs — and they’ve continued that trend during these conference finals as well.

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The Warriors aren’t just barely covering this spread, either. They’ve outscored the Mavericks by 10, 12, and nine points, respectively, for an average margin of 10.3 points per game.

Why we’re still getting plus-odds on this prop is beyond me. Hammer Golden State to cover the third quarter spread once again in Game 4.

Mavericks UNDER 108.5 Points (-125)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Dallas looked solid offensively in the first two rounds of the playoffs, but that’s been hardly been the case against Golden State. With exception to their three-point explosion in Game 2, the Mavericks have struggled to crack the century mark against the Warriors, averaging just 101.3 points per game.

The blame isn’t on Doncic, who’s averaging 34 points per game in this series and has been efficient at all three levels. Jalen Brunson has looked good too, but beyond those two, the Mavericks have struggled to stay consistent against the Warriors’ rugged defense.

In a do-or-die game for Dallas, I’m expecting them to fall short of this scoring mark for the third time in four games. They’ll play to their strengths and operate a slower-paced offense like they did during the regular season and hope to win this game on the defensive end of the floor.

PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Props

Game 2 between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors was a big one for Over bettors. Luka Doncic went off for 42 points. Jalen Brunson pitched in another 31. Stephen Curry had 32. Both teams also got red-hot from three-point range, and 243 points were scored, smashing the projected total.

As a result of this chaos, totals have been raised across the board, and Unders are looking slightly more favorable as we move into the next game of this series.

After striking out on our wagers in Game 1, we came back and hit all four in Game 2. Here are our favorite prop bets for Game 3 of Warriors vs Mavericks.

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Saturday, May 21, at 12 p.m. ET.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Player Props

Klay Thompson, Warriors: OVER 18.5 Points (-125)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Thompson has struggled as a scorer so far in this series, recording just 15 points in each game. Part of that has to do with his cold streak from three-point range — the sharpshooter has gone just 2-of-8 from beyond the arc. However, I don’t think this is something we should expect to happen moving forward.

Before this series began, Thompson was averaging over 20 points per game in the playoffs. He was also shooting 40.8% from three-point range and connecting on 3.8 attempts each night, which is more in line with how he’s performed over the course of his career.

Thompson will turn a corner eventually, and Game 3 looks like a good spot for it to happen. This is a low total and good price to buy in on the Over — Thompson has scored 19+ points in more than half of his playoff games so far this year — making this our NBA bet of the day.

Luka Doncic, Mavericks: UNDER 33.5 Points (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Yes, we just saw Doncic score 42 points in Game 2. He’s clearly capable of hitting the Over at 33.5 points. So why are we rolling with the Under?

For starters, Doncic has not been as dominant a scorer at home in these playoffs. He’s averaging 29.5 points across four games, and he hasn’t scored more than 33 in any of them.

Additionally, I’m anticipating that Game 3 will be played at a slower pace, which means there will be fewer scoring opportunities available for Doncic. Free throws could present some trouble here, but overall, this feels like a safe bet to make.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Game Props

Warriors Cover -1.5 3Q Spread (+110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

In Game 2, we wrote about how dominant the Warriors have been in third quarters this season. Golden State ranked No. 1 in third-quarter scoring margin coming into the contest, and unsurprisingly, that was when this game began to favor the Warriors. They won the third quarter 25-13 and easily covered the -1.5 spread.

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We’re getting slightly better odds on this prop for Game 3 since the Warriors will be on the road, which makes this a great value bet. There are some warning signs here (something we’ll discuss in our final prop bet for this game), but I still like Golden State to comfortably win the frame.

Warriors UNDER 108.5 Points (-105)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Warriors are averaging 110.4 points per game away from home so far this postseason, and while that’s still a respectable total, their offense has looked much better in San Francisco. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have been dominant on defense in Dallas, allowing just 93.5 points across six playoff games at home.

This is consistent with what we saw during the regular season as well. Dallas ranked second in opponent points per game and sixth in defensive rating, and the team also plays at the slowest pace in the NBA.

If Game 3 favors the Mavericks’ pace, Golden State will struggle to score more than 108.5 points.

PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Props

We didn’t have much success with our prop bets in Game 1. Uncharacteristic performances from each team’s stars — including Luka Doncic and Klay Thompson — threw us off a bit.

It didn’t help that the Golden State Warriors blew out the Dallas Mavericks, either. The game was projected to be tight, but the Warriors ended up dominating the second half en route to a 25-point victory.

As we look ahead to Game 2, here are our favorite player and game prop bets.

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Thursday, May 19, at 2 p.m ET.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Player Props

Luka Doncic, Mavericks: OVER 31.5 Points (-120)

WAGER: 2 Units

It’s not often that you get the opportunity to buy low on a player of Doncic’s caliber, but that’s exactly what we have here. The 23-year-old superstar had one of the worst showings of his playoff career in Game 1, and as a result, his points prop has been lowered a few notches heading into Game 2.

Golden State did well to defend Doncic in Game 1, but they can’t contain him forever. He’s averaging 30.5 points per game in these playoffs alone, and that number goes up to 32.1 points when you include al 24 games of his postseason career.

We can’t expect Doncic to have another poor showing in Game 2. Even if he has to force things a bit more or take more shot attempts, he’s going to do whatever he can to leave his mark, making this our NBA bet of the day.

Reggie Bullock, Mavericks: OVER 2.5 Threes (+110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Mavericks were ice-cold from three-point range in Game 1, connecting on just 11 of their 48 attempts (22.9%). Plenty of those misses were good looks, too, and we should expect those to go down more often than not moving forward in this series.

One player who had a reasonable amount of luck from deep in Game 1 was Reggie Bullock, who sank a game-high three shots from beyond the arc. That’s not unusual for Bullock, either — he’s made three or more three-pointers in nine of his 14 appearances in this year’s playoffs.

The Mavericks won’t stay cold from deep forever, and given he had a fair amount of success there in Game 1, look for Dallas to get Bullock going again in Game 2. This is an excellent value at plus-odds.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Game Props

Warriors Cover -1.5 3Q Spread (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

When the Warriors went on their numerous title runs, they were known for being especially lethal in third quarters. The same rang true in Game 1, as Golden State blew the game open with a 34-24 advantage in the frame, putting them up by 19 points heading into the fourth.

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This has been a pattern for Golden State all season. They ranked first in third-quarter scoring margin at +2.6 points. The Warriors were even better at home, where they posted a +4.5 scoring margin on the year.

They’ll just need to cover a 1.5-point spread here in Game 2, so this prop feels like a near-lock.

Warriors OVER 110.5 Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Golden State had an abnormal game offensively in Game 1. The typically red-hot Warriors went just 10-of-29 from three-point range, with Thompson and Stephen Curry combining to go 4-of-13 from beyond the arc. Still, they managed to score 112 points, thanks in large part to the fact that they went 36-of-53 on twos.

I would anticipate Golden State’s two-point percentage shrinking a bit in Game 2, but we also can’t expect Curry and Thompson to continue struggling from deep. Jordan Poole also sank just one of his four attempts from range, and he’s shooting 38.4% from beyond the arc on 6.1 attempts per game this postseason.

I’m looking for the Warriors to get hot from deep and stay warm inside the arc in Game 2, leading to them hitting the Over on their point total.

PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Props

Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Dallas Mavericks is nearly here. This series looks as though it’ll be excellent for prop betting given the star power on both sides.

There are few players in the NBA more exciting than Luka Doncic, who has been on a tear this postseason. The 23-year-old always stuffs the stat sheet, so there’s no shortage of ways to bet his props.

On the other side, we have two of the greatest three-point shooters of all time in Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. They can both get hot at a moment’s notice, which means the Over is never too far away on their points props.

With that said, let’s dive in and take a look at our favorite prop bets for Game 1.

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and are current as of Wednesday, May 18, at 10 a.m ET.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Player Props

Luka Doncic, Mavericks: OVER 33.5 Points (-120)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Doncic is magnificent. No matter how you choose to defend him, he is going to find a way to beat you. And in all honesty, it may be in Golden State’s best interest to let the young superstar go off.

Teams have had the most success against the Mavericks when they let Doncic feast and stay home on their role players, like Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. If the Warriors choose to employ a similar defensive strategy, Doncic could easily top the Over on his points prop. Accordingly, taking the Under on his assists prop could also be a smart play.

However, even if Golden State throws everything it has at Doncic, he should still see a significant enough shot volume to be able to reach this total, making this our NBA bet of the day.

Klay Thompson, Warriors: OVER 3.5 Threes (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Thompson caught fire in Golden State’s Game 6 victory over the Grizzlies, going for 30 points on 8-of-14 shooting from beyond the arc. He has a reputation for being particularly lethal in these games (they call him “Game 6 Klay" for a reason), but I could see him carrying the hot hand into Game 1 against Dallas, as well.

Thompson is putting up nearly 10 threes per game so far this postseason, and he’s sinking an average of 3.8 at a 40.8% rate. Given his shot volume and efficiency from range, we’re getting a great value here for him to go Over 3.5 makes in Game 1.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Game Props

Warriors UNDER 109.5 Points (-115)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Both of these teams have terrific offensive players, but I actually envision this series being slower-paced and decided more on the defensive end. Golden State had the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA during the regular season, while Dallas played at the slowest pace and gave up the second-fewest points per game.

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The game total has been set at 214.5 points, and while I think that line has been set appropriately, 109.5 points seems a touch too high for Golden State.

Warriors or Mavericks Win by 1-5 Points (+185)

WAGER: 1 Unit

There were blowouts galore in the second round of the NBA Playoffs, but I think we’ll see a return to closely-contested games in the Conference Finals. This is a fairly even matchup, and sportsbooks seem to agree — the Warriors are pegged as five-point favorites in Game 1.

Regardless of who wins the series opener, I think we’ll get a close game that’s decided by only a handful of points. This is a feel-out game, so neither team should have a significant advantage just yet.


Garrett Chorpenning

Garrett Chorpenning is the Lead NBA Editor for The Game Day. His previous work includes covering the LA Clippers for Sports Illustrated and FanSided. He graduated from Ball State University in 2021.

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