Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction & Best Bets for Game 5 | Spread, Over/Under, Moneyline, & Series Odds

After winning the first three games of the series, the Golden State Warriors fell flat on Tuesday night in a 119-109 loss to the Dallas Mavericks. Luka Doncic was exceptional for the Mavericks, nearly recording a triple-double with 30 points, 14 rebounds, and nine assists.

Now, the series heads back to San Francisco for Game 5, where Golden State will get another shot at eliminating Dallas. They have the clear edge at home — the Warriors have gone 8-0 at Chase Center in these playoffs — but will the Mavericks carry their momentum with them on the road?

Here are our predictions and best bets for Game 5 between the Warriors and Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, May 25, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-320), Mavericks (+250)
  • Spread: Warriors -7 (-110), Mavericks +7 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 111.25, Mavericks 104.25

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Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Prediction

Doncic was phenomenal for the Mavericks in Game 4, but the key to the Dallas victory was the support he got from the team’s role players. Dorian Finney-Smith went for 23 points on 9-of-13 shooting, Reggie Bullock had 18 and shot 60% from three-point range, and Maxi Kleber finally had an efficient game off the bench.

The Mavericks have struggled to get consistent contributions like these throughout the series, but the supporting cast finally came through in Game 4. As a result, Dallas converted 46.5% of its looks from beyond the arc and won the rebounding battle for the first time in the series.

It was really a perfect storm for the Mavericks. They even dominated the third quarter, which was decidedly won by the Warriors in each of the previous three games.

As we approach Game 5, we have a decision to make. If Dallas can get this level of support from its role players again, the team will certainly have a chance to win this contest. However, the team has struggled to stay consistent on offense in this series, and it seems unlikely that they’ll get this kind of effort in back-to-back games.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Score Pick

Warriors 113, Mavericks 101

Game 5 will be close, but I’m expecting the Warriors to pull off the gentleman’s sweep. They’ve been unbeatable at home in these playoffs, and with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line — and the chance to earn a rest advantage over their eventual opponent — they won’t squander the opportunity.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 5 Best Bets

Warriors Cover -7 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

There’s not much value in taking the Warriors to win this game outright, so instead, we’re going to back them against the spread. It’s a riskier move, but with how strong Golden State has looked at home this postseason, they can certainly get the job done.

In eight home playoff games, the Warriors have gone undefeated and beaten their opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points. In two home games against the Mavericks, Golden State has won by an average margin of 17 points.

This could very well be a blowout — that’s been the theme of these playoffs — but I think Dallas will keep this one interesting before the Warriors pull away in the second half. Take the Warriors to cover the spread in our NBA bet of the day.

spread

-110

Warriors: Cover -7 Spread vs Mavericks

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UNDER 215.5 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Game 4 also had a projected total of 215.5 points, and it easily went Over. Both teams combined to score 228 points thanks to Golden State’s 39-point fourth quarter.

However, it’s important to emphasize that the Mavericks were extremely efficient from three-point range in Game 4. Their 20 three-pointers were the third-most they’ve converted in a game this postseason, and it was their fourth-best performance in terms of three-point percentage.


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We can’t expect Dallas to maintain that level of efficiency in Game 5, especially in such a hostile environment. It’s no coincidence that this team tends to shoot worse and commit more turnovers on the road than at home.

The Warriors will do their job on both ends of the floor, leading this total to go just Under 215.5 points.

over-under

-110

Warriors vs Mavericks: UNDER 215.5 Pts

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PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Prediction

Game 3 was supposed to be the contest where the Dallas Mavericks fought their way back into the series. There was a moment in the first half where it looked promising, but the Golden State Warriors pulled away in the third quarter. It was never close after that.

Now, the Mavericks are facing a seemingly insurmountable 3-0 deficit. No NBA team has ever lost a series after taking a 3-0 lead. Seeing how dominant the Warriors have looked so far, it’s unlikely that this will be the first.

Do the Mavericks have enough pride in them to avoid being swept? Let’s take a look at our predictions and best bets for Game 4 between Dallas and Golden State.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 23, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-105), Mavericks (-115)
  • Spread: Warriors +1 (-110), Mavericks -1 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 215.5 (-110), Under 215.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 107.25, Mavericks 108.25

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Prediction

As was the case in Game 1, the Mavericks seriously struggled to get going from three-point range in Game 3. As a team, Dallas went just 13-of-45 for 28.9% from beyond the arc, which was only a marginal increase compared to the 22.9% rate they hit in the series opener.

Dallas had several players shoot above 40% from deep, but that success was hardly widespread. Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber combined to go 0-for-12 from three-point range, and Bullock, in particular, had been great in Games 1 and 2.

If the Mavericks continue to shoot this poorly, it won’t matter how great Luka Doncic performs. His 40 points weren’t enough in Game 3, and his lowly three assists were evidence of how little support he received from the team’s role players.

On the other hand, Golden State got a strong all-around contribution. Stephen Curry had another 30-point showing, Klay Thompson had a series-best 19 points, and Andrew Wiggins posted 27 points and 11 rebounds, a postseason career-high in scoring for him.

We know that Curry is going to get his, and Thompson appears to be trending up in the series. If players like Wiggins and Jordan Poole continue to support Golden State’s stars, Dallas will have a difficult time avoiding elimination in Game 4.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Score Pick

Warriors 107, Mavericks 99

The Mavericks may very well come out firing in Game 4 and find just enough offense to overcome the sweep. That’s precisely what the Denver Nuggets did in their Round 1 series with the Warriors before they, too, were eliminated by Golden State.

That being said, we’ve already seen the Warriors defeat the Mavericks in this series in several different ways. Dallas was red-hot from deep in Game 2, but Golden State pulled together enough offense to defeat them.

If the Mavericks continue to shoot poorly and struggle on the glass, the Warriors will pull off the sweep.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 4 Best Bets

Warriors Moneyline (-105)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Dallas is essentially fighting for pride at this point. If any team is going to come back from a 3-0 deficit, it’s not going to be these Mavericks, and it’s certainly not going to happen against this Warriors team.

The Mavericks have an incredible star in Doncic, and the team’s supporting cast is good. However, it seems as though this team simply doesn’t have enough on offense to keep up with Golden State.

It would be a shocking result in a series that many expected to be close and competitive. I’m betting on the Warriors to take Game 4 and pull off the series sweep, making this our NBA bet of the day.

moneyline

-105

Warriors Win @ Mavericks

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UNDER 215.5 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Unders have been more frequent in this series, hitting in two of the three games so far. It hit comfortably in Game 3, and as a result, the total has moved down a few notches to 215.5 points.


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Still, I feel like the Under is in play again. Dallas plays at too slow of a pace with Doncic on the floor, and Golden State’s defense has done well to contain the Mavericks’ shooters. We may see a bit more offense in Game 4 from Dallas, but it won’t be enough to carry us to the Over.

over-under

-110

Warriors @ Mavericks: UNDER 215.5 Pts

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PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Prediction

The Golden State Warriors pulled off a spectacular come-from-behind victory in Game 2, defeating the Dallas Mavericks 126-117 to take a 2-0 series lead in the Western Conference Finals.

Dallas was utterly dominant in the first half, leading by as many as 19 points before going into the break with a 72-58 advantage. However, it was all Warriors in the second half, as Golden State outscored the Mavericks 68-45 the rest of the way en route to their nine-point victory.

We hit both of our best bets for Game 2, so hopefully we can build upon our win streak and find some success with betting Game 3 as well.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Saturday, May 21, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (+120), Mavericks (-140)
  • Spread: Warriors +2.5 (-110), Mavericks -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 219.5 (-110), Under 219.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 108.5, Mavericks 111

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Prediction

For a while there, it looked like the Mavericks had Game 2 in the bag. Luka Doncic scored more points in the first half than he did in all of Game 1, and as we anticipated, Dallas was far more consistent from three-point range.

However, a second-half surge — surprisingly led by Warriors center Kevon Looney — gave the Warriors the momentum they needed to fight their way back into the contest. Looney had 11 points and five rebounds in the third quarter alone and finished with a career-high 21 points to go along with 12 boards.

It’s not like the Mavericks didn’t get enough from their starters in Game 2. Doncic led the way with 42 points, Jalen Brunson scored 31, and Reggie Bullock turned in 21 on 6-of-10 shooting from three-point range. The Dallas bench was really the issue.

Maxi Kleber and Spencer Dinwiddie — two players who have otherwise performed well for the Mavericks this postseason — combined for just seven points on 3-of-11 shooting from the field and 1-of-7 from beyond the arc. Warriors reserve Jordan Poole outscored the Dallas bench all by himself.

If the Mavericks are going to get back into this series and avoid falling into the dreaded 3-0 hole, they’ll need a more consistent effort across the board. Doncic can only do so much on his own, and not being able to capitalize on Brunson’s 31 feels like a missed opportunity.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Score Pick

Warriors 102, Mavericks 108

Dallas has looked much more comfortable at home in these playoffs, posting a 5-1 record against the Utah Jazz and Phoenix Suns. And after their show of dominance against the Suns in the second round, I’m anticipating another strong performance from the Mavericks again here in Game 3.

They put themselves in position to win Game 2, but the Warriors were the more physical team in the second half, and their home crowd wasn’t doing Dallas any favors. This is a get-back spot for the Mavericks, and I think they’ll take advantage of the opportunity.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 3 Best Bets

Mavericks Moneyline (-140)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Mavericks opened as two-point favorites in Game 3, and while I do believe they’ll cover the spread, I’m a bit more comfortable taking them outright. The Warriors have played in several games decided by one possession this postseason, and I would hate to lose this wager because they keep the final score within a bucket.

I do like this spot much more for Dallas than I do Golden State, though. The Mavericks have been terrific at home in the playoffs, while the Warriors have gone just 2-3 on the road this postseason. On the contrary, Golden State has gone 8-0 at home.

The Mavericks are too talented and too resilient a team to go down 3-0 in this series. Look for them to bounce back in Game 3 and defeat the Warriors, making this our NBA bet of the day.

moneyline

-140

Mavericks Win vs Warriors

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UNDER 219.5 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

Golden State’s offense has not traveled very well this postseason. The Warriors are scoring roughly seven more points at home than they are on the road.

On the other hand, the Dallas defense has been incredible at home, holding opponents to an average of 93.5 points through six games.


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Game 2 went Over the total by quite a bit, and as such, the number for Game 3 has been elevated to 219.5 points. Given the spike in this number and the fact that the track records of both teams suggests this will be a lower-scoring contest, I love the Under in this spot.

over-under

-110

Warriors @ Mavericks: UNDER 219.5 Pts

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PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Prediction

The Golden State Warriors completely steamrolled the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, winning 112-87 in a contest that was never close in the second half.

Dallas trailed by just nine points at halftime, and after shooting poorly from three-point range in the first half, there was reason to be optimistic about their chances of fighting their way back into the game. However, that’s when the Warriors shut the door on the Mavericks, outscoring them 58-42 the rest of the way.

Now down 1-0 in the series, this almost feels like a must-win game for Dallas. The Mavericks overcame a 2-0 deficit against the Suns, but the Warriors won’t give them that type of leeway.

Here are our best picks and predictions for Game 2 between the Warriors and Mavericks.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Thursday, May 19, at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-270), Mavericks (+220)
  • Spread: Warriors -6.5 (-110), Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 214 (-110), Under 214 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 110.25, Mavericks 103.75

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Prediction

Dallas was largely ineffective on offense in Game 1 on account of their horrendous three-point shooting — something the team has otherwise had plenty of success with so far this postseason. The Mavericks went 11-of-48 (22.9%) from deep on Wednesday night. It was their worst performance of these playoffs thus far.

This probably isn’t something we should expect to continue. The Mavericks are converting on 37.2% of its looks from deep this postseason, and it’s not like a majority of their attempts in Game 1 were heavily contested. These are shots they normally make and should be able to make moving forward.

The biggest concern for Dallas right now is how well Golden State defended Luka Doncic. His 20 points were the third-lowest of his playoff career, and while he should get back on track soon, this Warriors defense will take some figuring out. Andrew Wiggins played him especially well, applying consistent pressure all night.

On the other hand, the Warriors didn’t have their most perfect performance, either. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for just 36 points on 4-of-13 shooting from beyond the arc, and Golden State as a team connected on just 10 of its 29 three-point attempts.

The Warriors did find plenty of success inside the arc, shooting 36-of-53 (67.9%) on twos, but a regression to the mean seems likely in Game 2.

Ultimately, this contest will likely be decided by how well Dallas can adjust to Golden State’s defense. The Warriors can maintain this level of success on offense, but we shouldn’t expect the Mavericks to continue scoring under 90 points per game.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Score Pick

Warriors 114, Mavericks 103

The Mavericks will look better in Game 2 and have something to build off of heading into Game 3 in Dallas, but it won’t be enough to take down the Warriors.

The Warriors looked sharp on both ends of the floor, and if they can execute their defense even half as well as they did in Game 1, they’ll take a 2-0 series lead.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 2 Best Bets

Warriors Cover -6.5 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

I said I would back the Mavericks against the spread until the Warriors proved why I shouldn’t, and it didn’t take long for that to happen. For a team that had looked vulnerable at times through the first two rounds, Golden State had a near-vintage performance in Game 1.

I do think the Mavericks will keep things closer in Game 2 — they won’t shoot 22.9% from deep forever — but the Warriors will do enough to keep them at bay and win comfortably at home.

Don’t overthink this one and take Golden State to cover the spread with our NBA bet of the day.

spread

-110

Warriors: Cover -6.5 Spread vs Mavericks

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OVER 214 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Under hit in Game 1, and as a result, we get a slightly lower number to work with here in Game 2. This time, I like the Over, but not just because of the extra value we’re getting.


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As previously mentioned, Dallas isn’t going to play this poorly for long.

If Golden State can put forth a similar performance, we’ll just need the Mavericks to score in the ballpark of 100 points for this bet to have a good shot at hitting, and they’re averaging 104.9 points per game so far this postseason.

over-under

-110

Warriors vs Mavericks: OVER 214 Pts

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PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Prediction

After an exciting and at times surprising second round of the NBA Playoffs, we’ve finally reached the Western Conference Finals. This year’s version will pit the Golden State Warriors against the Dallas Mavericks in what’s sure to be a competitive and hard-fought series.

The Warriors are heavily favored to win the series, and they’re also sizable favorites in Game 1 as well. They earned a few additional days of rest after taking down the Memphis Grizzlies in six games, but will the time off help or hurt them against a red-hot Mavericks team?

Here are our best bets and predictions for Game 1 between Golden State and Dallas.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Wednesday, May 18, at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Warriors (-225), Mavericks (+185)
  • Spread: Warriors -5 (-110), Mavericks +5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: Over 214.5 (-110), Under 214.5 (-110)
  • Implied Score: Warriors 109.75, Mavericks 104.75

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Prediction

The Mavericks head into Game 1 having had far less time to rest and adjust to their next opponent than the Warriors. Dallas eliminated the Phoenix Suns in Game 7 on Sunday night, while Golden State wrapped up its second-round series with the Grizzlies last Friday.

We’ve seen this dynamic play out a few different ways. The Warriors could come out looking fresh and energized in Game 1, or they could look a bit rusty in comparison to the Mavericks, who may ride their momentum into San Francisco and catch Golden State off guard.

Either way, I expect this opening game to be close throughout. Golden State will struggle to defend Luka Doncic, who has been phenomenal this postseason, and Dallas will have a hard time keeping tabs on the trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Jordan Poole.

One thing that will be important to keep an eye on as this series progresses is how well Golden State shoots from beyond the arc. The Warriors ranked third in three-point makes per game during the regular season, while the Mavericks gave up the fewest threes per game and allowed opponents to shoot just 34% from deep.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Score Pick

Warriors 107, Mavericks 103

In Game 1, I’m anticipating a back-and-forth contest that ends with the Warriors emerging with a narrow victory. They’ll trade buckets and the lead down the stretch, but the Mavericks will have to be perfect to compete with the Warriors’ shooting, and Golden State’s home crowd will hound them if they make any mistakes.

This is a winnable game for Dallas, and they’ll be in position to do so until Golden State pulls away at the very end.

Warriors vs Mavericks Game 1 Best Bets

Mavericks Cover +5 Spread (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

I’m not ready to back Golden State against the spread just yet. The Warriors haven’t looked nearly as dominant in these playoffs as we’ve come to expect from them, and Dallas is fresh off a massive victory over the defending Western Conference champions.

The Mavericks have played the Warriors extremely well this year — they won the season series 3-1 — and they have the best player in the series in Luka Doncic. I’m backing Dallas against the spread until Golden State proves me wrong.

Lock in the Mavericks to cover on the road with our NBA bet of the day.

spread

-110

Mavericks: Cover +5 Spread @ Warriors

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UNDER 214.5 Total Points (-110)

WAGER: 1 Unit

These teams are known for their offensive firepower and killing opponents with points, but the stats show that each is actually more efficient on the defensive end of the floor — and much more so.

Golden State ranked first in defensive rating and third in opponent points per game during the regular season. It’s the best their defense has looked since they won the NBA Finals in 2016-17 and went 16-1 in the postseason.


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Dallas, on the other hand, ranked sixth in defensive rating and second in opponent points per game during the regular season. The Mavericks also finished dead-last in pace, signaling that this is a team that likes to take its time with the ball and limit opponent possessions.

Dallas and Golden State can certainly erupt for some massive scoring totals, and I imagine that will happen a few times throughout this series. However, it seems more likely than not that Game 1’s total goes Under 214.5 points.

over-under

-110

Warriors vs Mavericks: UNDER 214.5 Pts

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PREVIOUSLY: Warriors vs Mavericks Series Prediction

It’s been an unpredictable postseason thus far in the NBA, and there’s no better example of that than this year’s Western Conference Finals matchup.

The Golden State Warriors are back after defeating the Memphis Grizzlies, and the Dallas Mavericks will make a surprising appearance after they took down the Phoenix Suns — the team with the league’s best record — in seven games.

Now, with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line, fans will be treated to what should be a phenomenal matchup with Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry taking center stage.

Here’s how we see this series shaking out.

Warriors vs Mavericks Odds

All NBA gameday odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook and current as of Monday, May 16, at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Series Winner: Warriors (-250), Mavericks (+200)

Warriors vs Mavericks Series Pick

Upon first glance, this might look like a relatively easy series for the Warriors to take. Dallas lacks experience, and there’s no team remaining in the NBA Playoffs with more championship pedigree than Golden State.

Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green have been here before, and they know what it takes to win.

However, what Golden State doesn’t have is the best player in the series. That honor belongs to Doncic, who has put on a monstrous display so far this postseason. The 23-year-old superstar is averaging 31.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 6.6 assists through 10 games, and he posted a 35-point double-double in Game 7 vs Phoenix.

Doncic is going to get his no matter what the Warriors throw at him. He’s a maniac.

The deciding factor in this series will be how well the Mavericks’ secondary options perform — namely Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie. The Suns struggled to defend them down the stretch of the series, and maintaining that momentum will be key for Dallas.

Warriors vs Mavericks Series Score Pick

Mavericks in 6 Games

The Warriors are heavy favorites to win this series and return to the NBA Finals, but I have a hard time matching that confidence. Golden State has looked surprisingly vulnerable in the postseason, and their offense has lacked the same punch that it had in previous title runs.

These Warriors are great, but they aren’t world-beaters.

Dallas, on the other hand, has been incredibly efficient on both ends of the floor, and has looked like the more dominant team. The Mavericks also played the Warriors better during the regular season than any other team in the league, and they’re playing their best basketball of the season at the perfect time.

Warriors vs Mavericks Best Bets

Series Betting: Dallas Mavericks (+200)

WAGER: 1 Unit

The Warriors are currently listed at (-250) to win this series, but with how great the Mavericks against the defending Western Conference champs in the second round, I really don’t see the value in backing Golden State here.

The Dubs have the talent and the experience to win this series, but the Mavericks have the best player and the momentum. At (+200) odds, this is a terrific price on a team that has everything it needs to advance to the NBA Finals.

Back the Mavericks in our NBA bet of the day.

prop bet

+200

Mavericks Win Series vs Warriors

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Mavericks Cover +1.5 Series Spread (-130)

WAGER: 1 Unit

No matter who wins this series, I believe we’re looking at this ending in six or seven games. If Dallas doesn’t pull it out in Game 6, it’ll be hard to go against the Warriors in Game 7 on their home floor. However, should this series go to a Game 7, we can still cash this bet even if the Mavericks get eliminated.

Dallas can win this series outright, but if you’d rather have a bit of a safety net, this is the bet for you.

prop bet

-130

Mavericks: Cover +1.5 Series Spread vs Warriors

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